UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[YL]

Anyone whose been out in Wakefield would have seen that the independent candidate Akef Akbar (an ex-Tory councillor) is campaigning heavily, his posters are everywhere - probably more than for Labour and certainly more than for the Tories (of which I saw none). 9/10 times. independents do poorly, and the fact he has a lot of posters on lampposts isn’t indicative of actual support, but he may end up taking a good chunk of Tory votes which increases the overall margin of victory for Labour.

I saw on Twitter a Labour activist who has been to the seat claim that he might take more from Labour than the Conservatives. Given that he’s a Muslim from the usually safest Labour ward in the constituency, that may well be the case.

Indeed, I think that's likely.

Not that it matters but the Wakefield Green candidate seems a bit of a car crash. That 8% poll will probably be well off the mark.

Specifically, she got into a Twitter spat with some Yorkshire Party activists after apparently saying she supported Yorkshire independence (which the YP don't, to be clear).  It also included her opinions on Leeds United FC, which TBF are probably shared by most supporters of other football clubs in the area, but there will be a fair number of Leeds fans in the Wakefield electorate.

[YL]

Well, not exactly an internal poll leak, but certainly some expectation-setting:

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1534485560106143744

Why would a former Liberal Democrat MP know the overall margin and then leak it to the Telegraph? And how do they arrive at the 5000 figure given the exact result is obviously not baked in weeks before the actual election?

Expectation seeking indeed.

It's been suggested that the former Lib Dem MP could be Lembit Öpik.  That said the suggested majority seems quite plausible.

[YL]

Why would a former Liberal Democrat MP know the overall margin and then leak it to the Telegraph? And how do they arrive at the 5000 figure given the exact result is obviously not baked in weeks before the actual election?

Expectation seeking indeed.

It's been suggested that the former Lib Dem MP could be Lembit Öpik.  That said the suggested majority seems quite plausible.

Hasn't he pretty thougrily burned his bridges with the Party ? why would he have the poll figures ?

I think the idea was that he was the most likely former Lib Dem MP to speak to the Telegraph.  The figure given could just be a guess rather than any sort of internal Lib Dem estimate.

I wouldn't take this line of argument very seriously, mind.  Plenty of Labour figures talk to hostile newspapers.

[YL]

Boris visiting Tiverton.

Was rumoured to be happening- did he visit North Shropshire?

A mildly interesting fact is that Prime Ministers never used to do campaign visits to constituencies holding by-elections. Blair breached this once (Beckenham) but it didn't work out, so never did again, and so things remained until May started making such trips normal and Johnson completely routine.

Another sex related by-election- a park bench was involved I believe!

Still weird Beckenham was every close- although actually the old boundary pre 2010 has a lot more of the well ‘south London’ wards rather than leafy stockbroker type wards.

The currently proposed new Beckenham, which is quite similar to the version pre 2010, has a notional Tory majority of 431 per Electoral Calculus.

[YL]

Boris visiting Tiverton.

Was rumoured to be happening- did he visit North Shropshire?

https://twitter.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1535293836095807493

[YL]

What Lib Dems release is clearly selective and so not very informative.  In spite of the poor record of constituency polls, I'd quite like to see one here; I don't know why 38 Degrees commissioned one of Wakefield but not T & H.

[YL]

Well, that reception for the Tory candidate in T&H is certainly interesting given some pundits seem to be suggesting the Tories have a chance on hanging on there.

Indeed, though of course hustings audiences aren't very representative of the constituency.  I doubt the pundits really know much.

(OTOH the bookies made the LibDems clear favourites a while ago and that hasn't changed)

They have actually moved a little bit towards the Tories, but the Lib Dems are still clear favourites.  Not by as much as the Tories were in Chesham & Amersham, mind.

My guess is a Lib Dem win but by less than in North Shropshire.

[YL]

Anyway, the Lib Dems released some more numbers.  They now claim that they and the Tories are tied on 45%.

[YL]

Am I right as well that in these sort of ultrasafe seats both parties will have a much sketchier view of where their vote is too…

I would presume so (though given the by-election induced swing I'm not sure prior canvassing would be very accurate anyways). The most prominent example that comes to mind is credible reports that Labour had absolutely no clue who their voters were in Bolsover as well as South Shields only having (I think) a few 100 on record thanks to boundary changes.

No, not really - rather more to do with The King Over The Water (TM) being rather neglectful of local matters whilst he was cosplaying in Westminster. I know for a fact that Labour staff were rather not amused come the 2013 byelection at the decrepit state the CLP had been left in.

I read that as saying that they had a few hundred, but only thanks to boundary changes transferring them into the constituency.

[YL]

Tory sources are now briefing that they expect to lose both by-elections, and that the margin will be closer in Wakefield than T&H, which I struggle to see. I guess we've seen stranger things in prior by-elections though.
https://www.ft.com/content/9d8b3793-7953-4f12-896e-9cb60069545a

One Tory strategist working on the two by-elections said the Liberal Democrats were on course to win Tiverton with a “substantial” majority and Labour would secure Wakefield, albeit by a smaller margin.

The strategist added the by-elections were prompted by scandals surrounding the incumbent Tory MPs and it was natural the party would lose. “Midterm governments also don’t win by-elections,” he said.

Feels blatantly dishonest to claim the government doesn't win midterm by-elections, when Labour haven't made a by-election gain in over a decade, and the Conservatives have made several, starting with Copeland, and ending with Hartlepool a year ago!
(For those of you playing the home game, the last time Labour picked up a seat in a by-election was when Louise Mensch resigned as MP for Corby in 2012, and before that you have to go back to 1997)

*

Labour seems to be trying to do their own expectation setting too:

“It’s going strong but we are very, very worried about complacency and turnout,” said one member of Sir Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet. “Anything over [a majority of] 1,000 will be a huge achievement.”

But, as you'd expect, not everyone is toeing the party line:

Another shadow cabinet member said: “Anything less than a 5,000 majority bodes badly for winning back the red wall.”

I wouldn't take parties' expectation management that seriously, but I think it's quite possible that the margin in T & H is bigger than that in Wakefield, especially if (as these people seem to be doing) you measure the numerical majority: T & H has a bigger electorate and is likely to have bigger turnout, to the extent that a 4000 majority in Wakefield could be the same percentage margin as a 7000 majority in T & H.

In general T & H feels more unpredictable to me: it could be close either way, but it could also be a big Lib Dem win like North Shropshire, in which case I'd expect the percentage margin to be similar to that in Wakefield.

"Mid term governments don't win by-elections" is nonsense: it is true that the Tories didn't win a single by-election from Richmond 1989 (in which they were very lucky) to Uxbridge 1997, but a quick look at UK by-election history will show that that is an outlier.  Labour don't really have a history of taking previously safe Tory seats in by-elections at all.

[YL]

How plausible is it that Tory loyalists are temporarily switching to Lib Dem (or just staying home) just for this specific by-election, purely as a protest against Boris damaging the party's overall prospects?  I would imagine that even if Boris is still leading the party into the next GE they'll all fall back in line (because GEs actually matter), but for now?

Very plausible.  Even in 1997 the Tories won Christchurch back.

[YL]

Andrew Teale's previews

[YL]

Some rumours Labour may have lost their deposit in T & H, which would be a very good sign for the Lib Dems.  (But no doubt will be spun by some as terrible news for Starmer.)

Meanwhile what rumours I’m seeing from Wakefield suggest a comfortable Labour win.

[YL]

Talk of a double digit margin for the LDs in T & H

[YL]

When computing the swing for T&H is it done from the difference between 1st and 2nd in the prior election or from the difference between Con and LD in said election?

The latter.

[YL]

Wonder how big the swing will be if the talks of double digit win are true?  Still don't think they'll rival what they pulled in Bermondsey in 83 but it could be bigger than Christchurch. 

To beat the Christchurch record the lead would need to be nearly 25 percentage points.

[YL]

Lib Dems claiming a “clear win” in Tiverton & Honiton.  Yellow returning to the map of the rural West Country after a 7 year break.

[YL]

Nadeem Ahmed (Conservative) 8241
Akef Akbar (Ind) 2090
Paul Bickerdike (Christian People's Alliance) 144
Mick Dodgson (Freedom Alliance) 187
Sir Archibald Stanton Earl 'Eaton (Official Monster Raving Loony) 171
Jayda Fransen (Ind) 23
Jordan Gaskell (UKIP) 124
David Herdson (Yorkshire Party) 1182
Therese Hirst (English Democrats) 135
Christopher Jones (Northern Independence Party) 84
Simon Lightwood (Labour) 13166
Jamie Needle (Lib Dem) 508
Ashley Routh (Green) 587
Ashlea Simon (Britain First) 311
Chris Walsh (Reform UK) 513

Majority 4925

[YL]

Swing is about 12.7% then.  Not bad but not quite as good as the two polls.

[YL]

Close to 30% swing in T & H then.

[YL]

Well it’s a take!

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1540218121943916550?ref_src=twsrc...

A particularly interesting take given that @labour is the Irish Labour Party.

[YL]

Meanwhile the Lib Dems became the first non-Tory party to win the land around T&H since the 19th century,  before the universal franchise and existence of the Labour Party.

Just the land around Honiton: the Tiverton constituency voted Liberal twice in 1923, once in a by-election and once (by three votes) in the General Election later in the year.

Honiton itself was a Parliamentary Borough until 1868 and had Whig/Liberal MPs, though it always had a Tory as well.  The surrounding countryside, however, including the coastal towns, was in the South Devon division which was Tory from 1835.  Areas now in the East Devon constituency (most of that constituency, actually, except the bits in the City of Exeter) retain the record.

I don't know why this area is so ancestrally Tory; was it very Anglican by West Country standards?

[YL]

It wouldn't be a Lib Dem by-election gain without a stunt the following day


(picture from the Guardian)

[YL]

Do these Lib Dem victories portend anything enduring in all these safe Tory seats? Or are they just one time by-election protest votes and these seats will return to the fold in the GE? Would be interesting if we saw a similar phenomenon to what happened in Australia here.

History suggests that they are more likely than not to lose them, but holds are definitely possible.  After winning Berwick in a 1973 by-election, they managed to hold it for 42 years.  A lot depends on the atmosphere at the following General Election; 1997 and Feb 1974 were good elections for Lib Dems holding by-election gains, while 1992 was not.  Something also depends on the perceived quality of the MP, which is a bit of an unknown at this point.

I concur that Chesham & Amersham is the most likely of the three to be held.  I’m not so sure I’d rank Tiverton & Honiton ahead of North Shropshire, especially as the latter isn’t likely to have major boundary changes; indeed I suspect the minor ones proposed are helpful.

[YL]

Well it wouldn’t be a shock if we have another south west by-election but god knows the Tories will be moving heaven and earth to stop any. The only seats that are safe are the ones facing Labour in Essex.

Also to be blunt MPs facing investigations often stay in Parliament- they in some cases get legal advice paid for them (as I believe the Hartlepool MP did via insurance) and leaving means they lose a large amount of their income.

It really depends whether it reaches the recall threshold or not.  If it doesn’t I doubt there will be a by-election (compare Leicester East) but I don’t think the Tories will try funny business to avoid a recall again after the Paterson farce.