UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[YL]

Some census statistics (2011 obviously).

Managers, directors and senior officials: 17.4% (8/650)
Professional occupations 23.1% (73/650)
Elementary occupations 6.4% (629/650)

Level 4 qualifications (degree level, roughly) 41.0% (39/650)
No qualifications 14.7% (608/650)
Students 18 and over 2.5% (509/650)

Owned outright 41.1% (55/650)
Owned with mortgage 35.8% (227/650)
Social rented 12.4% (468/650)
Private rented 9.0% (610/650)

[YL]

Declaration imminent, it seems.

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Green 1,480
Rejoin EU 101
Fleet (Con) 13,489
Green (Lib Dem) 21,517
Breakthrough 197
Freedom Alliance 134
Lab 622
Reform UK 414

LIB DEM GAIN!!!

YES!!!!

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One comment: the betting markets got this very wrong: the Tories were easy favourites until well after polls closed and were as short as 16 to 1 on on the day before polling day.

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People in hopeless seats for Labour tactically voting for the Lib Dems is the least of Starmer's problems.  (And is nothing new, especially in by-elections, even if this was a particularly extreme example.)

I don't know how many of them there are, but I imagine Sarah Green may well have won among the constituency's Labour membership.

[YL]

Phew…

If you’d told me Galloway would get that much, I’d have expected a Tory win.  I wonder where Galloway’s vote actually came from: did he actually get a decent share of the Heavy Woollen Indies vote, for a start?

[YL]

Is it possible that Labour was second on both the Batley and Spen Valley side of the constituency yet still ahead overall?

Certainly. Though it's slightly more complex than just Batley vs. Spen even if that works as a quick summary: Birstall, though a separate town and generally good territory for the Conservatives, was in Batley MB before the local government deforms of the 1970s while Heckmondwike (a town with remarkably cursed politics: multiple BNP councillors over the years and serious Biradari influence) is in the Spen Valley. It was suggested overnight that Heckmondwike may have been Galloway's strongest part of the constituency, which would certainly be on brand.

Did Galloway's campaign appeal to both BNPish and Biradariish currents, or does it just seem "aesthetically" like the sort of campaign that might have? It's hard as a foreign armchair observer to tell to what extent he was running as a Muslim sectional candidate and to what extent he was running as a general-interest turbo#populist maniac.

He shared a platform at some "free speech" event with Paul Halloran (the Heavy Woollen District Independent candidate from 2019) and Laurence Fox; he also used the word "woke" a lot.

The constituency was 18.8% Muslim according to the 2011 census, third highest in Yorkshire after his previous stamping ground Bradford West (51.3%) and Bradford East (36.9%).  I guess it's a bit more than that now.

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It was suggested overnight that Heckmondwike may have been Galloway's strongest part of the constituency, which would certainly be on brand.

Who by?  The Galloway campaign or someone else?

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Anyway, the Labour Party is pretty well organised in Wakefield district, though it must be admitted that this is truer of the outlying parts than the city itself. It's also one of those places where Labour polled a lot better in the May elections than at the last GE, though, again, particularly outside the city.

Aggregated results in May:
Con 11730
Lab 10541
Green 1768
LD 285 (Horbury & South Ossett and Ossett only)
Yorkshire Party 263 (Wakefield North only)
TUSC 118 (Wakefield East only)
For Britain 101 (Wakefield West only)
UKIP 85 (Wakefield North only)
Independent 65 (Wakefield North only)

Tories won Ossett, Wakefield East and Wakefield Rural, Labour won Horbury & South Ossett, Wakefield North and Wakefield West.

Boundaries are slightly odd: the seat doesn't include Wakefield South (in Hemsworth) and does include Ossett and Horbury which are really Heavy Woollen District towns and might fit better in Kirklees.  The proposed new boundaries move Ossett, Horbury and "Wakefield Rural" to a new Ossett & Denby Dale constituency crossing the Kirklees boundary which would also include Wakefield South, and replace them with the two Outwood wards currently in the Morley & Outwood constituency and Rothwell over the border in Leeds (but not really part of "Leeds proper").

Anyway, there may well not be a by-election.

[YL]

Here are the ranks (out of 650) of some constituencies in each of the nine occupation categories in the 2011 census.

	Richmond Park	Chesham & Amersham	O Bexley & Sidcup	Batley & Spen	Hartlepool
"Managers, directors and senior officials"	4	8	310	317	524
"Professional occupations"	9	73	331	538	514
"Associate professional and technical occupations"	19	53	140	429	483
"Administrative and secretarial occupations"	631	343	1	255	498
"Skilled trades occupations"	643	552	278	236	140
"Caring, leisure and other service occupations"	643	530	554	405	65
"Sales and customer service occupations"	645	622	453	226	102
"Process plant and machine operatives"	646	614	449	44	98
"Elementary occupations"	648	629	594	232	187

[YL]

Just a note on the rules for recall petitions.  These are only triggered in three specific sets of circumstances, and the one that is relevant here is if the MP receives a custodial sentence, including a suspended one.  So there won't be a recall petition unless she receives at least a suspended sentence.  Also, it isn't triggered until the period for appeals has passed, or the result of any appeal has been determined, so any petition is some way off.

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North Shropshire would be an interesting one to watch to see whether the recall petition passes.  So far we've had three: North Antrim (narrow miss), Brecon & Radnor (comfortable success), Peterborough (overwhelming success).

As a mostly rural constituency where there would be no non-incumbent party who would be likely to be particularly optimistic about a by-election, and as the petition would be caused by suspension rather than conviction, this is perhaps most like North Antrim.  OTOH, it is in England (even if place names like Llynclys, Rhydycroesau and Porth-y-waen might suggest otherwise) not Northern Ireland, so it is not that like North Antrim.

My guess would be a narrow success, but with considerable uncertainty.

[YL]

North Shropshire would be an interesting one to watch to see whether the recall petition passes.  So far we've had three: North Antrim (narrow miss), Brecon & Radnor (comfortable success), Peterborough (overwhelming success).

As a mostly rural constituency where there would be no non-incumbent party who would be likely to be particularly optimistic about a by-election, and as the petition would be caused by suspension rather than conviction, this is perhaps most like North Antrim.  OTOH, it is in England (even if place names like Llynclys, Rhydycroesau and Porth-y-waen might suggest otherwise) not Northern Ireland, so it is not that like North Antrim.

My guess would be a narrow success, but with considerable uncertainty.

In the absence of any normally competitive party aren't the liberal democrats favoured to be competitive party if anything to make the race competive happens ?

Yes, I think they're the most likely to make a go of it, but I don't think it's a particularly favourable constituency for the current incarnation of the party, and AIUI they're not that organised in quite a lot of it.  Though I do note that they came quite close in some wards in May (The Meres for example).

Green generarly tend to do quite badly in by-elections, is there any particular reason they can't seem to translte local goverment succses into by-elections suprises like the liberal democrats can ?

They have actually started doing quite well in some local by-elections in a similar way to the Lib Dems, but I suspect in Westminster ones there is usually a better resourced party able to position their candidate as the challenger.  There's also a question of getting lucky with which seats come up.  As Al said, they do have some strength in Oswestry, but I doubt this is their chance.

[YL]

So no recall petition in North Shropshire for now, thanks to today's ridiculous antics.

In other news, the Old Bexley & Sidcup by-election has been called for 2 December.  Nominations close on Tuesday.

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And now it appears Paterson is going to resign...

So a North Shropshire by-election early in the New Year, I guess.

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Claudia Webbe MP (ex-Labour, Leicester East) has received a suspended sentence.  That is enough to trigger a recall petition, but not until any appeal is dealt with.

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Claudia Webbe MP (ex-Labour, Leicester East) has received a suspended sentence.  That is enough to trigger a recall petition, but not until any appeal is dealt with.

Is the recall petition likely to succeed ?

Almost certain to, I'd say.  Labour have said they'll support it.

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The writ was moved for North Shropshire this morning.  Polling day is being reported as 16 December.

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11 candidates for Old Bexley & Sidcup

Elaine Cheeseman (English Democrats)
Daniel Francis (Labour)
Louie French (Conservatives)
Richard Hewison (Rejoin EU)
David Kurten (Heritage Party)
John Poynton (UKIP)
Simone Reynolds (Lib Dem)
Jonathan Rooks (Green)
Richard Tice (Reform UK)
Carol Valinejad (Christian People's Alliance)
Mad Mike Young (Official Monster Raving Loony)

[YL]

The Tories have chosen Neil Shastri-Hurst as their candidate for North Shropshire.  He's a barrister from Birmingham, so I presume he has some other qualities which make him suitable for a by-election in Shropshire in the present climate.

[YL]

The Tories have chosen Neil Shastri-Hurst as their candidate for North Shropshire.  He's a barrister from Birmingham, so I presume he has some other qualities which make him suitable for a by-election in Shropshire in the present climate.

Will there be any effect of picking a BAME urban lawyer for a rural constituency that's 98% white and only 0.2% Asian ?

I'd hope him being BAME won't be a big factor (and there are several rural seats with BAME Tory MPs) but as hinted above "lawyer from Birmingham" strikes me as a phrase which is quite likely to appear in a few Lib Dem leaflets.  Maybe they will even include a photo of Geoffrey Cox QC MP.

Lib Dems seem to be treating this one seriously and essentially ignoring Old Bexley & Sidcup, Labour the other way round.

[YL]

The Labour candidate for North Shropshire will be Ben Wood, who is from Oswestry and is in his mid 20s. The Greens have not, I think, selected yet, but are likely to run Duncan Kerr, who is the councillor for the Oswestry South division.

The Green candidate is indeed Duncan Kerr, and the Lib Dems have now officially selected their 2019 candidate Helen Morgan, who stood in The Meres ward in May (and came pretty close).

[YL]

14 candidates for North Shropshire

Suzie Akers Smith (Independent) [1]
Andrea Allen (UKIP)
Boris Been-Bunged (Rejoin EU) [2]
Martin Daubney (Reclaim Party) [3]
Russell Dean (The Party Party) [4]
James Elliot (Heritage Party) [5]
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
Earl Jesse (Freedom Alliance) [6]
Yolande Kenward (no description) [7]
Duncan Kerr (Green)
Helen Morgan (Lib Dem)
Neil Shastri-Hurst (Con)
Kirsty Walmsley (Reform UK) [8]
Ben Wood (Lab)

[1] Independent councillor for Congleton West (Cheshire East)
[2] No, that isn't his real name.
[3] This is the party led by actor Laurence Fox.  Daubney was a Brexit Party MEP.
[4] Address in Monaco, of all places.
[5] The UKIP splinter led by David Kurten.
[6] Anti-lockdowns.
[7] From Maidstone, and stood there in 2017 and 2019.  According to the Shropshire Star, "she has also spent many years campaigning for action against paedophiles and corruption".
[8] The renamed Brexit Party.  The candidate is the daughter of former Shropshire Council leader Keith Barrow, who was a Tory but is now supporting her.

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What are people's hunches for Bexley?

I'm torn between it being virtually no real change from 2019 but equally can see a case where the bottom really does fall out of the Tories vote share (as happens in virtually every by-election with an unpopular government)

I expect a substantial Tory fall but not enough to really put the seat in danger.  The Lib Dems aren't trying, so I doubt they'll make any progress, and I don't see Labour getting enough to win a seat like that unless large parts of the right-wing vote defect to Reform UK.

Maybe something like Con 47%, Lab 32%, Reform UK 11%, LD 5%, also-rans 5% between them.  (Complete stab in the dark, though.)

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Has/Will there be any polling in any of the by-elections because the results would be interesting.

By-election polls are fairly rare and don't have the best reputation (constituency level sampling being hard) but I suppose someone might commission one.  The Lib Dems actually commissioned some constituency polls themselves before the last General Election, presumably to get some numbers for bar charts, so I suppose they might.  (But they didn't in Chesham & Amersham.)