UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[YL]

Well, here are my thoughts on each of the constituencies which have changed hands in by-elections this Parliament.

Hartlepool A lot has changed since that one. Based on current polling I'd expect a straightforward Labour regain, though I do feel that if the Tories recovered into hung parliament territory they might hold on here. There are no boundary changes.

Chesham & Amersham Boundary changes remove some relatively rural territory around Great Missenden, and add Gerrards Cross (upmarket and traditionally very Tory commuter town) and Hazlemere (a rather boring High Wycombe suburb). I suspect this harms the Lib Dems a little, mainly because it brings in people who didn't vote in the by-election, but on current polling I doubt the Tories get enough to win it back, given that it'll be very obvious who to vote for to beat them. There is a Buckinghamshire council by-election pending in Hazlemere which might be worth keeping an eye on.

North Shropshire Anecdotally Helen Morgan seems to be a popular MP, and if anything the minor boundary changes help her, as the areas removed are likely to be relatively strong for the Tories. On current polling I think she holds on, though this is not obviously a natural seat for the modern Lib Dems.

Wakefield The constituency is split in two. The parts of Wakefield proper in the seat go to Wakefield & Rothwell, which would have been low hanging fruit for Labour even without the by-election, while the rest goes to Ossett & Denby Dale, which is considerably more challenging but still winnable. Simon Lightwood has made the obvious choice, and given the split I doubt the by-election will add much to Labour's chances in O & DD, but in a landslide they're winning it anyway.

Tiverton & Honiton This is another case where the seat has been split. Some goes to Tiverton & Minehead, which I suspect will go Tory, but the bulk joins with parts of the current East Devon to form Honiton & Sidmouth, and Richard Foord is standing there. I think Honiton & Sidmouth is a bit unpredictable: there's no Lib Dem tradition in the added areas, which have been Tory since 1835, but Claire Wright's independent campaign suggests some latent non-Tory potential which the Lib Dems might be able to exploit. Still I think this is a relatively likely Tory win.

Selby & Ainsty Labour are helped by the boundary changes, which remove the "Ainsty" area and Tadcaster and add the usually Labour (at least locally) Kippax & Methley ward of Leeds, and if they're winning a majority I suspect Keir Mather holds on here.

Somerton & Frome This is another one with major boundary changes. Sarah Dyke is standing in the new Glastonbury & Somerton, which would look like a plausible Lib Dem gain even without the by-election, and I think she wins. The other seat, Frome & East Somerset, is complicated, but possibly the by-election will help Lib Dems claim that they're the challengers.

Rutherglen & Hamilton West The new Rutherglen would be one of the most obvious Labour targets in Scotland even without the by-election. Michael Shanks should hold on here.

Mid Bedfordshire The Labour winner Alistair Strathern lives in Shefford, which is being moved into the new Hitchin seat, which looked a more plausible Labour gain, and he is standing there; perhaps his incumbency will help Labour a little, though he's only the incumbent in a minority of the seat. The rump Mid Beds looks challenging for Labour even in a landslide, though the Tory performance in the by-election was so awful as to give pause for thought.

Tamworth Boundary changes are fairly minor. The Tories were on over 40% even in the by-election (the only one of their losses this is true of) and I suspect they will win this back.

Wellingborough The constituency gains Irthlingborough from Corby, and loses Wollaston and Bozeat to South Northamptonshire and rural parts of Earls Barton ward to Daventry, and is renamed as Wellingborough & Rushden. The changes are not major but help Labour, and while the swing needed from 2019 is still big you wonder how quickly the Conservatives will be able to recover from their atrocious performance in the by-election. At the moment I would guess that Gen Kitchen will hold on.

Kingswood This constituency is effectively abolished. The largest part, including Kingswood proper, goes to the revived Bristol North East; these parts are the most Labour parts of the seat, the Bristol wards included are also mostly Labour-inclined, and the new seat is estimated as having been comfortably Labour even in 2019. (Though presumably not in 1983 or 1987.)  Damien Egan had alreadby been selected as the Labour candidate there before Skidmore's resignation. The second largest part goes to North East Somerset & Hanham, where the Tory candidate will be Jacob Rees-Mogg, and I doubt the by-election will have much effect on Labour's chances of winning that. A smaller area goes to Filton & Bradley Stoke, and again I don't see the by-election changing much.

Rochdale Galloway got just under 40% in the by-election, but with a proper Labour candidate and turnout at General Election levels his vote share should fall quite a bit, and that should leave him at a level where it's hard to hold the seat. Barring Labour messing up their selection (but we are talking about Rochdale here) I really think they win this back.

One other update: the Tories won that council by-election in Hazlemere. Their vote share wasn't very convincing (a lot of votes went to an independent candidate) but it does suggest that that boundary change was unhelpful for the Chesham & Amersham Lib Dems.

[YL]

Rochdale Galloway got just under 40% in the by-election, but with a proper Labour candidate and turnout at General Election levels his vote share should fall quite a bit, and that should leave him at a level where it's hard to hold the seat. Barring Labour messing up their selection (but we are talking about Rochdale here) I really think they win this back.

Boundary changes remove the Spotland & Falinge ward* which is unlikely to be to Galloway's advantage.

_{*Meaning that there will be enough of the town no longer in the constituency to be vaguely surprised they're not renaming it as Rochdale East & Littleborough.}

Ah but then what would they have called the other seat?

I don't think the boundary change actually makes that much difference, though I agree that what difference it does make is not in Galloway's favour. It does make a difference in the aforementioned other seat, at least as far as the 2019 notional is concerned.

[YL]

Ah but then what would they have called the other seat?

Since when have such considerations been an issue to the Boundary Commission?

It would have been the areas proposed to be in the other seat that a fuss would have come from, though; indeed, one did, but it was about the splitting of Middleton rather than the inclusion of more of Rochdale, and the Commission's sop was to add "Middleton North" to the originally proposed name, which was simply "Heywood". I don't know what they'd have come up with if they'd felt they had to acknowledge Heywood, bits of Middleton and bits of Rochdale, but if they had added "Rochdale West" to that name I suspect the main Rochdale seat might indeed have become "Rochdale East & Littleborough".

How much of a fuss was there in Littleborough about the 1997 changes?

[YL]

I assume the Blackpool by election will be held with the local elections?

Yes, and the writ has already been moved. The idea is probably that the news impact of losing it will be less with it being at the same time as the locals.

[YL]

Nine candidates for Blackpool South:

Stephen Black (Independent) [1]
Mark Butcher (Reform UK)
Andrew Cregan (Lib Dem)
Howling Laud Hope (OMRLP)
David Jones (Con)
Kim Knight (Alliance for Democracy and Freedom) [2]
Damon Sharp (New Open Non-Political Organised Leadership) [3]
Ben Thomas (Green)
Chris Webb (Lab)

[1] Someone of this name posts on TikTok as @friendsofblackpool
[2] Essentially a UKIP splinter, led by a former Tory councillor in Leicestershire who defected to UKIP
[3] This lot. Hmmm...

[YL]

The Tory candidate in Blackpool South just happens to be the chair of Fylde Conservatives.