Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[BigSerg]

It's a pattern of behavior. Just on that same day, he was grabbing himself inappropriately 2 seats down from the Queen and the 16 year old Princess Sofia, which he himself thought was embarrassing enough to apologize for at the same press conference where he flip flopped on resigning. He's a gross machista freak, like so many people in the Hispanic world, and explanations are not excuses. Hermoso was on an Instagram livestream immediately afterwards where she said she didn't like it. Now this man has made everyone in Spain forget about the fact that they won a World Cup.

Are you serious? Probably with this "scandal" women's soccer will have much more visibility. In Spain literally no one sees it.

It's obvious that BigSerg was not among the 6 or 7 millions who watched the final, or maybe he believes that people was anticipating the Rubiales show.

https://www.elmundo.es/television/medios/2023/08/21/64e31a2fe4d4d85a228b457b.html

I have not a clue about the political leanings of Rubiales. I know that Pedro Sánchez was extremely cold with him in the reception at La Moncloa. Sánchez also said his apologies were insufficient. Only COPE journalists and maybe Vox sympathizers condone Rubiales behaviour

Rubiales' father was a Psoe mayor and later indicted for the ERE case (what a surprise!) Not to mention that, over the years, he has maintained a close friendship with Sánchez.

https://twitter.com/elespanolcom/status/1694302617558548742?s=20

[Velasco]

Rubiales must go and the government is going to act against him through the CSD, as BigSerg and Cuca Gamarra know. BigSerg also said that nobody sees it, but the Spanish team that won the world's championship raised a remarkable interest and women's teams like FC Barcelona gather thousands of people. It must be ignorance or bad faith, I don't know. In case Rubiales comes from a socialist family, the unwillingness to condone him speaks in favour of Sánchez and not against

[Zinneke]

It's true that Rubiales has a PSOE card, but when has that stopped someone from holding reactionary views

[Velasco]

Here you have the reasons why this affair is political

"● Vox is not overshadowed. It's strong in a sector of the society. Today (yesterday) Vox has taken the floor at the national football's corporate assembly.

● Women's football turns to be a national-popular phenomenon. It symbolizes deep changes (in the society) and delineates the reactionary camp"

https://twitter.com/EnricJuliana/status/1695182756223897701?t=0OeseEkAb4kS1iKeym...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Feijóo's investiture debate and vote is schedule for 26 and 27 September. If he fails, Sanchéz will get an opportunity and if he also fails, snap elections will be held during January 2024.

...why are they waiting an entire month to hold a parliamentary vote? You'd think government formation would be something the political system took with some sense of urgency.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Feijóo's investiture debate and vote is schedule for 26 and 27 September. If he fails, Sanchéz will get an opportunity and if he also fails, snap elections will be held during January 2024.

...why are they waiting an entire month to hold a parliamentary vote? You'd think government formation would be something the political system took with some sense of urgency.

I suppose the advantage of having such deep and extensive forms of political devolution as Spain does is that the pressing need really isn't there in the way it would in be in countries with more centralized political systems.

[Velasco]

I think the timing of this investiture can be explained by the following:

a) it prevents the possibility of a repeat election taking place in Christmas holidays, postponing the date to late January

b) it gives time for the negotiations between the PSOE and Junts, while Feijóo won't be able to do anything in the meantime

I don't agree with this procedure, but I think the rationale is clear. On the other hand, Spanish legislation allows budget extensions from one year to the following

[Mike88]

The Supreme Court has rejected PSOE's appeal to recount the 30,000 invalid ballots in Madrid. After the Madrid electoral junta and the Spanish electoral junta, the Supreme Court has also rejected the Socialists's appeal to recount the invalid overseas ballots in Madrid, the gave one more seat to the PP.

The Court ruled that the mere difference in votes, around 1,200, is not a sufficient base for a recount adding that the PSOE didn't present "logical elements, arithmetic data or credible statistical calculations that make it possible to verify, even hypothetically, the relevance of the revision of the votes in the final result and in the attribution of the controversial parliamentary seat".

The final and official results should be published next week.

[BigSerg]

Despite what Velasco says, Feijóo's investiture is not dead. There have been reports of recent attempts by Iñigo Urkullu, Lehendakari of the Basque Government and personal friend of Feijóo, is pushing for "real" negotiations with the PP. On the other hand, Junts has agreed to meet with the PP and have remained surprisingly silent on any possibility of agreement, unlike the PNV.

It should be noted that Junts can remain neutral, i.e. abstain and justify themselves by saying that they "will not participate in the governability of the Spanish state". That would make Feijóo be invested with 172 votes in favor and 171 against. Even the BNG has been less belligerent and they have not yet confirmed whether or not they would be willing to meet with the PP.

[Velasco]

It's impossible to rule out anything when Puigdemont is involved, but Feijóo's chances of success are very very slim. I have heard to a certain journalist who was MP for Málaga and  close friend of Casado saying that all PP barons tell him that the task is impossible. But still they are backing Feijóo and think that he must try.

Likely Feijóo will have a meeting with some PNV represrntative(s) and possibly they'll display an image of cordiality thereafter. The PNV and the PP are not far from each other on issues like economy (to put it simply, let's say the PNV is economically centre-right and socially centre-left). However,  spokesman Aitor Esteban has said explicitly that there's no path for agreement because there's an elephant in the room called Vox. It's true that Feijóo has a good relationship with lehendakari Urkullu, but the PNV is a party characterized by a strict division of powers. Urkullu is the head of the regional government, while the party leader is the chairman of an executive committee called Euskadi Buru Batzar. The EBB chairman is Andoni Ortuzar and he is the one who has the power to decide. I doubt any figure in the PNV would be comfortable dealing with Vox, on the other hand.

Of course there exists the possibility that Junts abstains, paving the way for the investiture of Feijóo. Junts is characterized by its multiple factions and its inextricability,  so it's hard to predict its behaviour. I appeal, however, to your memory and your srnse of reality. Look at the recent events involving the PP and Catalonia and notice the agreement to elect the Congress speaker and the Bureau. Above eveything, look at the elephant in the room: Vox has been campaigning on the ban of separatist parties and promised a heavy hand with Catalonia.

It must be noted that the PSOE has not an easy path to negotiate with Junts and that all parties are acting with a repeat election in mind. Even though the possibility of reaching an agreement with them is remote, the PP has a clear interest in approaching PNV and Junts.

In case we are going to the polls again, the PP needs to improve its image in Catalonia and among the female voters.  The association between PP and Vox is a serious handicap in these two electoral fronts.

Vox has not vanished and uts influence is strong in some sectors of the society. The Rubiales affair is a clear example of this: regardless of whether his father was a PSOE mayor, the Rubiales speech before the football's corporate assembly was rhetorically Vox

[Bacon King]

The PP will talk with Junts, while a spokesperson says the "tradition" and the "legality" of Junts are "beyond doubt"

lmao so they're legitimizing Junts, establishing the precedent that "it's totally acceptable for a Spanish political party to make deals with Catalan secessionists, and even to rely on their support to form a government!"

they're literally just making the job easier for Sanchez once it's officially his turn

[Velasco]

CC deputy Cristina Valido says her party would support the investiture of Feijóo,  for the PP candidate has accepted the "Canarian agenda" in its integrity. However, in case  Sánchez was the candidate, CC would be open to discuss its support in exchange for the PSOE's commitment to fulfill said agenda. In short: Canarian regionalists put their eggs in different baskets

https://twitter.com/ElHuffPost/status/1695484249187750146?t=WlW8G-htOE9qYQPd90f2...

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

CC deputy Cristina Valido says her party would support the investiture of Feijóo,  for the PP candidate has accepted the "Canarian agenda" in its integrity. However, in case  Sánchez was the candidate, CC would be open to discuss its support in exchange for the PSOE's commitment to fulfill said agenda. In short: Canarian regionalists put their eggs in different baskets

https://twitter.com/ElHuffPost/status/1695484249187750146?t=WlW8G-htOE9qYQPd90f2...

Canarian Corruption does Canarian Corruption things. Their vote can essentially be counted on whichever side is willing to bribe them (hint: it's both). Amusingly, there's the possibility of them voting in favor of Feijóo in September and for Sánchez in October/November.

[Velasco]

Canarian Corruption does Canarian Corruption things. Their vote can essentially be counted on whichever side is willing to bribe them (hint: it's both). Amusingly, there's the possibility of them voting in favor of Feijóo in September and for Sánchez in October/November.

The thing is, the demands displayed by Valido (subsidies for the victims of La Palma volcano, subsidies for transport, funds for universities...) don't look excessive and and for sure they're less exacting than those of the PNV or Junts. The main difference between CC and PNV are the moral scruples with regards to Vox, since CC has no problem in voting with the far-right party as long as Abascal & co are not in the government. It's also remarkable the CC's hypocrisy concerning the presence of Sumar in the government. Initially CC spokespersons stated that they would reject a government including Vox or Sumar. In later statements, Cristina Valido admitted that Vox and Podemos/Sumar are not equivalent and that ocassiinally CC voted proposals sponsored by Podemos. In her recent statement she hasn't said a word about Sumar, so I assume the presence of Yolanda Díaz et alii  wouldn't be a "red line"

The PP will talk with Junts, while a spokesperson says the "tradition" and the "legality" of Junts are "beyond doubt"

lmao so they're legitimizing Junts, establishing the precedent that "it's totally acceptable for a Spanish political party to make deals with Catalan secessionists, and even to rely on their support to form a government!"

they're literally just making the job easier for Sanchez once it's officially his turn

The leader of the PP's Catalan branch is not happy with the idea, as you can read in the tweet below. Alejandro Fernández says that Junts is his adversary and that it's hard to talk with a party maintaining that Spain is a dictatorship ruled by a fascist King

https://twitter.com/alejandroTGN/status/1695808703591588268?t=52t_EpQi-eTE_xJ-jF...

On a separate note, I think it's highly remarkable the silence of Isabel Díaz Ayuso on the two big topical subjects: the investiture of Feijóo and the Rubiales affair

Moreover: while the mayors of Paris and London have released statements in support of Jennifer Hermoso and the Spanish team, the mayor of Madrid (a certain Almeida) has remained silent. Player Jenni Hermoso is from Carabanchel, a neighbourhood of Madrid

[Former President tack50]

Canarian Corruption does Canarian Corruption things. Their vote can essentially be counted on whichever side is willing to bribe them (hint: it's both). Amusingly, there's the possibility of them voting in favor of Feijóo in September and for Sánchez in October/November.

For fun, here are CC's votes on investitures since 2015:

2015 (Sánchez+Rivera): Yes
2016 (Rajoy+Rivera): Yes
April 2019 (Sánchez): Abstain
November 2019: (Sánchez+Iglesias): No (However, they were meant to abstain, but Oramas rebelled against party leadership. Interesting bit of internal infighting in CC)

Considering they already backed Sánchez, then Rajoy; I would not be surprised if they again voted Feijoo, then Sánchez without flinchin if they ended up as decisive.

That being said, the incentives for backing Sánchez this time are a lot lower, but they are non-zero. If Sánchez can pull an outright "yes" vote from Junts, CC becomes irrelevant. However if they are only able to get an abstention, CC will be the deciding vote.

But yes, CC is perfectly capable of propping up a Sánchez government in Madrid while back in the islands they themselves are being propped up by PP lmao

[Former President tack50]

Canarian Corruption does Canarian Corruption things. Their vote can essentially be counted on whichever side is willing to bribe them (hint: it's both). Amusingly, there's the possibility of them voting in favor of Feijóo in September and for Sánchez in October/November.

The thing is, the demands displayed by Valido (subsidies for the victims of La Palma volcano, subsidies for transport, funds for universities...) don't look excessive and and for sure they're less exacting than those of the PNV or Junts. The main difference between CC and PNV are the moral scruples with regards to Vox, since CC has no problem in voting with the far-right party as long as Abascal & co are not in the government. It's also remarkable the CC's hypocrisy concerning the presence of Sumar in the government. Initially CC spokespersons stated that they would reject a government including Vox or Sumar. In later statements, Cristina Valido admitted that Vox and Podemos/Sumar are not equivalent and that ocassiinally CC voted proposals sponsored by Podemos. In her recent statement she hasn't said a word about Sumar, so I assume the presence of Yolanda Díaz et alii  wouldn't be a "red line"

In a certain way, CC is the last remaining survivor of the way nationalist parties used to handle things before the fall of the old 2 party system, the Catalonia crisis and the rise of Vox. Just give me more money for the region and perhaps a few power transfers and we will support you, regardless of ideology.

That being said, CC's "price" has always been much lower than that of PNV or CiU back in the day. At the end of the day, Canarian nationalism is much softer than Basque or Catalan nationalism. But the deals CC does aren't all that much different from the ones González, Aznar or Zapatero in his 2nd term used to do.

[BigSerg]

Idk, every day that passes I see more likely that Feijóo will be invested, not less. I'll go out on a limb and say that the PNV and Junts will abstain.

The former deputy general of Bizkaia for the PNV José Alberto Pradera, considers that the Basque Nationalist Party should abstain in the investiture of Alberto Núñez Feijóo.

On the PNV's decision to vote "no" to Feijóo, he said that he blames it on an "absence of ambition" and said that the former leader of the party Xabier Arzalluz "would not have had complexes". "Are you going to tell me that Feijóo is worse than Aznar? and Arzalluz stood up in Genova", recalls Pradera, who says that he stays with Feijóo, who "also has a good relationship with the lehendakari".

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2023-08-27/feijoo-pnv-investidura-jose-alberto-pradera_3724608/

[BigSerg]

Canarian Corruption does Canarian Corruption things. Their vote can essentially be counted on whichever side is willing to bribe them (hint: it's both). Amusingly, there's the possibility of them voting in favor of Feijóo in September and for Sánchez in October/November.

The thing is, the demands displayed by Valido (subsidies for the victims of La Palma volcano, subsidies for transport, funds for universities...) don't look excessive and and for sure they're less exacting than those of the PNV or Junts. The main difference between CC and PNV are the moral scruples with regards to Vox, since CC has no problem in voting with the far-right party as long as Abascal & co are not in the government. It's also remarkable the CC's hypocrisy concerning the presence of Sumar in the government. Initially CC spokespersons stated that they would reject a government including Vox or Sumar. In later statements, Cristina Valido admitted that Vox and Podemos/Sumar are not equivalent and that ocassiinally CC voted proposals sponsored by Podemos. In her recent statement she hasn't said a word about Sumar, so I assume the presence of Yolanda Díaz et alii  wouldn't be a "red line"

In a certain way, CC is the last remaining survivor of the way nationalist parties used to handle things before the fall of the old 2 party system, the Catalonia crisis and the rise of Vox. Just give me more money for the region and perhaps a few power transfers and we will support you, regardless of ideology.

That being said, CC's "price" has always been much lower than that of PNV or CiU back in the day. At the end of the day, Canarian nationalism is much softer than Basque or Catalan nationalism. But the deals CC does aren't all that much different from the ones González, Aznar or Zapatero in his 2nd term used to do.

It is curious how Velasco and you try to make it seem that the PNV is different. Let's remember that they voted together with Ciudadanos, which was the "extreme right" before Vox. The PNV may say today that it will not vote with Vox, but it is not certain.

https://www.diariodesevilla.es/espana/elecciones/PNV-pactara-Rajoy-giro-grados_0_1039696302.html

[Bacon King]

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2023-08-27/feijoo-pnv-investidura-jose-alberto-pradera_3724608/

unless I'm missing something this is just the opinion of one guy?

Sure he used to be a PNV provincial leader, but he also left office three decades ago. He's clearly not aligned with the current party leadership or else he wouldn't be complaining about them to the press

I doubt this man's preferences are at all indicative of the current PNV

[BigSerg]

https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/2023-08-27/feijoo-pnv-investidura-jose-alberto-pradera_3724608/

unless I'm missing something this is just the opinion of one guy?

Sure he used to be a PNV provincial leader, but he also left office three decades ago. He's clearly not aligned with the current party leadership or else he wouldn't be complaining about them to the press

I doubt this man's preferences are at all indicative of the current PNV

The current PNV voted together with the PP and the "other Vox", Cs the previous legislature. This guy's opinion is of the Urkullu line, which continues to gain strength.

[Bacon King]

The current PNV voted together with the PP and the "other Vox", Cs the previous legislature.

It's really not accurate to compare C's to Vox, though? Your second link above is from immediately after the 2016 election, which if memory serves was back when that party was still pretending to be progressive. And even after their rightward shift they were still positioned as center-right liberals. Sure they were hardline centralists, resolutely opposed to peripheral nationalism, but that's still IMO nothing even remotely close to Vox, who are not only far-right but are also much more fiercely opposed to the Catalan/Basque parties than C's ever was.

Also could you elaborate on when it was that PNV backed the formation of a PP government alongside C's? Because it definitely wasn't in 2016, that's when PSOE abstained to allow a PP minority government after the party leadership canned Sanchez for refusing to do so. PNV voted against PP then and I'm like 90% sure that PNV has voted against PP in every investiture vote that's happened since (phone-posting this, so i can't look it up myself to verify rn)

Would very much appreciate if you could explain more for this ignorant American

[BigSerg]

The current PNV voted together with the PP and the "other Vox", Cs the previous legislature.

It's really not accurate to compare C's to Vox, though? Your second link above is from immediately after the 2016 election, which if memory serves was back when that party was still pretending to be progressive. And even after their rightward shift they were still positioned as center-right liberals. Sure they were hardline centralists, resolutely opposed to peripheral nationalism, but that's still IMO nothing even remotely close to Vox, who are not only far-right but are also much more fiercely opposed to the Catalan/Basque parties than C's ever was.

Also could you elaborate on when it was that PNV backed the formation of a PP government alongside C's? Because it definitely wasn't in 2016, that's when PSOE abstained to allow a PP minority government after the party leadership canned Sanchez for refusing to do so. PNV voted against PP then and I'm like 90% sure that PNV has voted against PP in every investiture vote that's happened since (phone-posting this, so i can't look it up myself to verify rn)

Would very much appreciate if you could explain more for this ignorant American

2018 It is true that the PNV voted against Rajoy, but once the PSOE returned to the opposition, Rajoy made a deal with the PNV. The government was sustained thanks to PP+CC+Cs+PNV, it only collapsed because of the PP corruption scandal. https://elpais.com/politica/2018/05/23/actualidad/1527102445_905741.html

[Velasco]

[
It is curious how Velasco and you try to make it seem that the PNV is different. Let's remember that they voted together with Ciudadanos, which was the "extreme right" before Vox. The PNV may say today that it will not vote with Vox, but it is not certain.

Lol. I can't believe that you are coming around with this nonsense. I already posted the statements of Aitor Esteban and he leaves no room for interpretation. Can you tell me how the party that once presented a joint investiture motion with Perro Sánchez is now characterized as "the other Vox"?

The PNV voted against the investiture of Rajoy in 2016, while most of the PSOE deputies abstained weeks after Sánchez was ousted by the party's old guard. The PNV made a deal with Rajoy to vote the 2018 budget, but only a week after the budget was passed* backed the no confidence motion launched by the revived Sánchez after the court ruling on PP's parallel accounting.

The far-right didn't have parliamentary representation between 1982 and 2018/2019. There's not a single parliamentary force equivalent to Vox during that period. The only precedent to the Abascal party was Fuerza Nueva, the Francoist party led by Blas Piñar that won a deputy in the 1979 elections.

Maybe you need a rest, go on holiday or something

" While it was hard for the PNV to explain how do you pass feom voting a budget with Rajoy to vote a no confidence motion against him, it's also hard to explain how a party with the centralist leanings of Cs could vote a budget with advantageous concessions to the PNV. I remember well when Rivera was protesting against the "cuponazo vasco" (a play if wirds involving a lottery game popular in Spain)

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

The comparison of Boks & C's is not accurate to real life, but I can understand how you got there if you consume only left-wing Spanish content. It's true that they are pro-Spain, but their anti-nationalist ideology was mainly in their pursuit of Spain being just 1 member of a larger European federal state. C's was liberal and even left-leaning at the beginning, and they won their best performance when they cast themselves as the centrist pragmatic liberals in the room willing to deal with anybody. They turned rightwards when the Catalan crisis happened, and immediately began to lose their support outside of Catalunya (though that didn't last long either), leading to their current situation where they didn't even bother competing in the 23J election. 

[Zinneke]

They attracted exPsOE voters and maybe some genuine liberals but the leading figures behind it were still flag shaggers and PP "types" sociologically too more than anything and the way they normalised Vox for me is an indication of that.

A party that attacked and demonised PSOE more than Vox isn't a serious liberal or progressive party.