Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Sebastiansg7]

What would a new autonomy statute for Catalonia realistically include? would it be similar to the statute in the Basque Country? I am not an expert so I don't know if currently there are really a lot of actual differences between the two autonomies.

[Former President tack50]

What would a new autonomy statute for Catalonia realistically include? would it be similar to the statute in the Basque Country? I am not an expert so I don't know if currently there are really a lot of actual differences between the two autonomies.

To be honest, in many ways, the Basque statute is a lot more limited, as it was drafted during the Transition back in 1979, so it is a rather short document with not much detail. The Catalonia statute from 2006 is the exact opposite, going into excruciating detail, with tons of positions created and what not.

The main difference between the two (and really between the Basque Country/Navarra and the remaining 15 regions) is the "Concierto economico", where basically all taxes in the Basque Country, remain there and the Basque government pays the Spanish government with a controversially calculated formula their share of "joint expenses" (say, defence and what not); while for the remaining regions it's the other way around, with the Spanish government giving the regions money.

However, from my understanding a "Concierto" for Catalonia would not need a new statute (though a new statute would entrench it).

Worth noting that a system like that would also greatly increase regional inequality in Spain, as might be expected from a wealthy region not paying any sort of solidarity to the poorer regions. I've seen some studies for both a "Concierto" for Catalonia and one where it just gets generalized to all 17 Spanish regions. In the former scenario, as you may expect, Catalonia is suddenly a lot richer and everyone else a lot poorer. In the latter scenario you get a few more winners (most notably Madrid, I am sure Ayuso is salivating at the chance) and the losers lose even more money.

Here are the calculations in both scenarios:

Catalonia-only concierto


Nationwide concierto (Note the Canary Islands have some weird issue with their calculation due to them being exempted from VAT)

[Peeperkorn]

Worth noting that a system like that would also greatly increase regional inequality in Spain, as might be expected from a wealthy region not paying any sort of solidarity to the poorer regions. I've seen some studies for both a "Concierto" for Catalonia and one where it just gets generalized to all 17 Spanish regions. In the former scenario, as you may expect, Catalonia is suddenly a lot richer and everyone else a lot poorer. In the latter scenario you get a few more winners (most notably Madrid, I am sure Ayuso is salivating at the chance) and the losers lose even more money.

What do the socialist regional barones say about this? This can be devastating for the PSOE electoral support in the long term.

[Oryxslayer]

Worth noting that a system like that would also greatly increase regional inequality in Spain, as might be expected from a wealthy region not paying any sort of solidarity to the poorer regions. I've seen some studies for both a "Concierto" for Catalonia and one where it just gets generalized to all 17 Spanish regions. In the former scenario, as you may expect, Catalonia is suddenly a lot richer and everyone else a lot poorer. In the latter scenario you get a few more winners (most notably Madrid, I am sure Ayuso is salivating at the chance) and the losers lose even more money.

What do the socialist regional barones say about this? This can be devastating for the PSOE electoral support in the long term.

Well the PP have most of the regional governments right now,  but that doesn't invalidate the intended point. Sanchez giving into Junts demands on most things beyond amnesty would be a poisoned chalice of epic scale, especially since the numbers wouldn't make governing very feasible.

One wonders why he's even bothering,  since polling since the election suggests a tied election rather than a marginal PP lead.  That would give PSOE the seats needed to get the everyone-but-seperatists-and-conservatives government back together.  I guess though he needs to make a show of rejecting their demands first before Spain goes to a  new election.

[Mike88]

Worth noting that a system like that would also greatly increase regional inequality in Spain, as might be expected from a wealthy region not paying any sort of solidarity to the poorer regions. I've seen some studies for both a "Concierto" for Catalonia and one where it just gets generalized to all 17 Spanish regions. In the former scenario, as you may expect, Catalonia is suddenly a lot richer and everyone else a lot poorer. In the latter scenario you get a few more winners (most notably Madrid, I am sure Ayuso is salivating at the chance) and the losers lose even more money.

What do the socialist regional barones say about this? This can be devastating for the PSOE electoral support in the long term.

Well the PP have most of the regional governments right now,  but that doesn't invalidate the intended point. Sanchez giving into Junts demands on most things beyond amnesty would be a poisoned chalice of epic scale, especially since the numbers wouldn't make governing very feasible.

One wonders why he's even bothering,  since polling since the election suggests a tied election rather than a marginal PP lead.  That would give PSOE the seats needed to get the everyone-but-seperatists-and-conservatives government back together.  I guess though he needs to make a show of rejecting their demands first before Spain goes to a  new election.

Well, polls are still reflecting the "comeback" effect of PSOE in the elections, adding to this the confusion in the PP and Vox strategies, but, nothing is certain right now. A Murcia snap election could be the "final nail in the coffin" for Vox, just like it was for Ciudadanos, and benefit PP, it's a possibility. Plus, Sanchéz made a strong "promise" that there would not be a repeat election, so, him failing that pledge would be a demonstration of failure, which is not good when you're starting a possible election campaign. No one knows what Junts and PSOE are negotiating, even if there are negotiating, so everything is still up in the air at this point.

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that a system like that would also greatly increase regional inequality in Spain, as might be expected from a wealthy region not paying any sort of solidarity to the poorer regions. I've seen some studies for both a "Concierto" for Catalonia and one where it just gets generalized to all 17 Spanish regions. In the former scenario, as you may expect, Catalonia is suddenly a lot richer and everyone else a lot poorer. In the latter scenario you get a few more winners (most notably Madrid, I am sure Ayuso is salivating at the chance) and the losers lose even more money.

What do the socialist regional barones say about this? This can be devastating for the PSOE electoral support in the long term.

Like Oryx said, they aren't saying anything, cause there are none of them left; most PSOE premiers lost reelection in May. The only one of the "old guard" remaining (Emiliano García-Page, Castille-La Mancha) is most certainly not happy and has criticized Sánchez, but he was already Sánchez's most outspoken critic to begin with. Had PP+Vox added up to a majority, I am sure he would have taken some sort of effort alongside the rest of the old guard but nothing for now other than just some critiques.

The only other PSOE premiers are María Chivite of Navarra (who presumably is fine, she is governing alongside pro-Basque nationalists after all) and Javier Barbón of Asturias (no idea, but he has always been very low-key). Neither of which really had a strong voice to begin with.

As for PSOE support long term? Yeah it would most definitely not be good, but maybe PSOE already sees those places as a lost cause? Who knows.

[Sebastiansg7]

Sorry if this seems like I am asking for a Crash Course in Spanish Politics... but what about Bildu? what do they want exactly? I guess independence, so are they actively asking for a referendum? or do they have a more long-term strategy?

I also heard Cayetana say, in the clip that Velasco posted, that Bildu wanted to annex Navarre??? I know Navarre is considered to be part of Euskal Herria and that northern Navarre voted for Bildu in great numbers, but I don't know if Bildu wants to perhaps fusion both autonomies before becoming an independent nation or something of the like. I guess that's not viable at all.

[Velasco]

Sorry if this seems like I am asking for a Crash Course in Spanish Politics... but what about Bildu? what do they want exactly? I guess independence, so are they actively asking for a referendum? or do they have a more long-term strategy?

I also heard Cayetana say, in the clip that Velasco posted, that Bildu wanted to annex Navarre??? I know Navarre is considered to be part of Euskal Herria and that northern Navarre voted for Bildu in great numbers, but I don't know if Bildu wants to perhaps fusion both autonomies before becoming an independent nation or something of the like. I guess that's not viable at all.

Cayetana Álvarez de Toledo is roughly the equivalent to a diehard uribista in Colombia.  Most of her account about the evil deeds of "sanchismo" is fanatic delusuon, but I posted it because it's a good example of the right-wing narrative in Spain. Besides, Cayetana is a learned aristocrat and has a good Argentinian accent.

She's right in what concerns Navarre, though. The union of Nafarroa (Navarre) and Iparralde (French Basque Country) to the three provinces of the Basque Country is a long-held ambition of Basque nationalism. Navarre in particular is a region with a great amount of diversity, which northern areas are predominantly Basque-speaking. There is a transitional disposition in the Spanish Constitution establishing the conditions for the eventual incorporation of Navarre to the Basque Country. EH Bildu, PNV and Geroa Bai would support that incorporation, but currently there's not a majority that would approve such proposal in Navarre

EH Bildu advocates the independence and the unity of Euskal Herria. However, in the last years EH Bildu has sidelined demands on sovereignty. In the Basque Country EH Bildu is seeking to replace the PNV as the hegemonic nationalist force, while its strategy in the Congress of Deputies is showing up as a political force that defends social and labour rights, as well as the Basque interests.

I think there's something about the relationship between the Spanish left and the petipheral nationalists that some people is bot able to understand. Election after election, results reveal that Spain is complex and diverse. Catalan and Basque nationalists are an essential part of that diversity and all the governments since the beginnings of the Transition have made deals with them (including Suárez,  González,  Aznar,  Zapatero,  Rajoy and Sánchez). Nowadays things are more convoluted and complex rhan decades ago, but we have to deal with that. Perhaps this is a golden opportunity to reintegrate Junts to the political system.

Regarding the results of the last general elections, I think the Spanish mainstream right should learn for once that it's not possible to govern Spain against Catalonia. On the other hand,  Catalan nationalists should learn from their poor results. People in Catalonia voted massively against the possibility of a PP-VOX government  but also gave strong support to a government that took steps towards reconciliation in Catalonia regardless their unpopularity in the rest of Spain

[Keep Calm and ...]

https://twitter.com/andrewiconnell/status/1694052660045865141

https://twitter.com/aitorehm/status/1694052833622925421

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Don Felipe has requested that Nunez Feijoo be the first to fail at the investiture. Enhorabuena!

[Logical]

Reminder that Feijoo needs PNV to vote for him, not just abstain. Something they have repeatedly said they were not going to do.

[icc]

Bit of a weird decision after the elections to the Mesa.

[Oryxslayer]

Bit of a weird decision after the elections to the Mesa.

PP is the largest party and on paper has the most votes in favor. They get the first right by definition, even if failure is at the end of most paths.

And at the end of the day, if Junts are going to remain committed to their rejection of the Madrid Cortez as a legitimate government authority in Catalonia, then it won't matter who goes first cause there is no majority.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

COMUNICADO DE LA CASA DE S.M. EL REY UNA VEZ FINALIZADA LA RONDA DE CONSULTAS DE LOS DÍAS 21 Y 22 DE AGOSTO

[...]

Tercera.- El Partido Popular ha sido el grupo político que ha obtenido mayor número de escaños en las pasadas elecciones del 23 de julio.

En ese sentido, conviene señalar que, salvo en la Legislatura XI, en todas las elecciones generales celebradas desde la entrada en vigor de la Constitución, el candidato del grupo político que ha obtenido el mayor número de escaños ha sido el primero en ser propuesto por Su Majestad el Rey como candidato a la Presidencia del Gobierno. Esta práctica se ha ido convirtiendo con el paso de los años en una costumbre.

[...]

"Third.- The People's Party was the political group which obtained the greatest number of seats in the last election July 23.

Seeing this, it should be noted that, other than in the XI Legislature, in every general election held since the Constitution entered into force, the candidate of the political group which obtained the greatest number of seats has been the first to be proposed by His Majesty the King as a candidate for the Presidency of the Government. This practice, over the years, has become the custom."

[Bacon King]

other than in the XI Legislature, in every general election held since the Constitution entered into force, the candidate of the political group which obtained the greatest number of seats has been the first to be proposed

I would argue that even this exception doesn't really count - the King went with Sanchez after the 2015 election only because Rajoy had already preemptively turned it down

[Lumine]

FEIJOO: Pretty please?

PNV: No.

FEIJOO: How about now?

PNV: No.

FEIJOO: And now?

More or less how the investiture debate will go. Mind you, he can still find a way to improve his image while failing, but simping hard after PNV is... not that way.

[Velasco]

This investiture is going to be a waste of time, since PNV represrntatives have said repeatedly they don't make deals involving fascists (I heard someone using the word "fascist" referring to Vox, maybe Aitor Esteban). I think the king has made a mistake and it would have been wiser following the advice of the PNV spolesman, that is to say: calling a second round of consultations, as it happened in 2019. Feijóo has 172 votes in favour and 178 against. These nunbers won't change unless someone bribes 4 PSOE MPs, emulating the infamous episode that took place in the Madrid regional assembly by 2003 (traitors Tamayo and Sáez defected from the PSOE and triggered a repeat election won by the PP)

Feijóo persists in saying that he won the elections, but coming first is useless if you are not able to forge parliamentary majorities in parliamentary regimes. If PP folks don't like our current system, they should try to establish a presidential regime, or advocate "the winner takes it all" principle (single member constituencies).

The key to unlock the investiture seems to be the amnesty law. I heard someone today saying constitutional experts deem it possible. In that case, the investiture of Sánchez would be viable

[BigSerg]

This investiture is going to be a waste of time, since PNV represrntatives have said repeatedly they don't make deals involving fascists (I heard someone using the word "fascist" referring to Vox, maybe Aitor Esteban). I think the king has made a mistake and it would have been wiser following the advice of the PNV spolesman, that is to say: calling a second round of consultations, as it happened in 2019. Feijóo has 172 votes in favour and 178 against. These nunbers won't change unless someone bribes 4 PSOE MPs, emulating the infamous episode that took place in the Madrid regional assembly by 2003 (traitors Tamayo and Sáez defected from the PSOE and triggered a repeat election won by the PP)

Feijóo persists in saying that he won the elections, but coming first is useless if you are not able to forge parliamentary majorities in parliamentary regimes. If PP folks don't like our current system, they should try to establish a presidential regime, or advocate "the winner takes it all" principle (single member constituencies).

The key to unlock the investiture seems to be the amnesty law. I heard someone today saying constitutional experts deem it possible. In that case, the investiture of Sánchez would be viable

It seems that it is you who does not like the current system. In every election the king has always appointed the winning party or "the most voted force" as you like to call it, not to do so would have been a ridiculous exception.

[Zinneke]

Yes and also the King handily shuts down any notion that he isn't giving a fair shot  to one party or another by just defaulting to the largest party. It's not his job to interpret the coalition dynamics, unlike say the Belgian king where the fragmented scene means he has to establish the formateur based on realistic coalitions.

[Former President tack50]

This investiture is going to be a waste of time, since PNV represrntatives have said repeatedly they don't make deals involving fascists (I heard someone using the word "fascist" referring to Vox, maybe Aitor Esteban). I think the king has made a mistake and it would have been wiser following the advice of the PNV spolesman, that is to say: calling a second round of consultations, as it happened in 2019. Feijóo has 172 votes in favour and 178 against. These nunbers won't change unless someone bribes 4 PSOE MPs, emulating the infamous episode that took place in the Madrid regional assembly by 2003 (traitors Tamayo and Sáez defected from the PSOE and triggered a repeat election won by the PP)

Feijóo persists in saying that he won the elections, but coming first is useless if you are not able to forge parliamentary majorities in parliamentary regimes. If PP folks don't like our current system, they should try to establish a presidential regime, or advocate "the winner takes it all" principle (single member constituencies).

The key to unlock the investiture seems to be the amnesty law. I heard someone today saying constitutional experts deem it possible. In that case, the investiture of Sánchez would be viable

It seems that it is you who does not like the current system. In every election the king has always appointed the winning party or "the most voted force" as you like to call it, not to do so would have been a ridiculous exception.

If we want to be pedantic, Rajoy back in 2015 was not appointed, although admittedly he himself refused to be appointed in the first place. Which is how we got the brief PSOE+Cs coalition in the first place.

FEIJOO: Pretty please?

PNV: No.

FEIJOO: How about now?

PNV: No.

FEIJOO: And now?

More or less how the investiture debate will go. Mind you, he can still find a way to improve his image while failing, but simping hard after PNV is... not that way.

Tbf I don't think simping hard for PNV will hurt PP nationally. PNV is seen as an "acceptable" kind of peripheral nationalist by its voters. It won't help, but it won't hurt either.

What might hurt is any sort of agreement or coalition with Junts, which PP already briefly floated. No matter how many "It will happen within the Constitution" assurances they give, there is no way that Feijoo talking to Puigdemont can't hurt them.

[Mike88]

Feijóo's investiture debate and vote is schedule for 26 and 27 September. If he fails, Sanchéz will get an opportunity and if he also fails, snap elections will be held during January 2024.

[Velasco]

It seems that it is you who does not like the current system. In every election the king has always appointed the winning party or "the most voted force" as you like to call it, not to do so would have been a ridiculous exception.

Neither after December 2015 nor after April 2019 were appointed leading party candidates by the king. The constitution says nothing about "winning parties" and "most voted forces", nor establishes customs and exceptions. Basically it's up to the king's discretionality to appoint a candidate after hearing the spokespersons of the different parties. The king is aware that Feijóo's investiture is not viable,  so appointing the PP candidate is a waste of time. Feijóo had the opportunity to tell voters what's his platform about, but he decided not to tell and spoke about revoking sanchismo instead. Besides,  Feijóo's investiture will make impossible to vote next year's budget in time. It's clear that Rajoy had more sense of statesmanship than Feijóo. The fact that PSOE does not oppose this doomed investiture attempt does not alter my opinion

[Zinneke]

If he had nominated Sanchez you'd be criticising him for putting the guy under pressure for forming a coalition within a certain deadline. Chillax and drink a caña, Velasco, the King is an objectionable character but he made the right decision here given Junts is ambiguous about which "bloc" they support. Just default to the largest party in such a situation.

[mileslunn]

I don't see how either side can form government so my guess is another election will be needed.

[Velasco]

If he had nominated Sanchez you'd be criticising him for putting the guy under pressure for forming a coalition within a certain deadline. Chillax and drink a caña, Velasco, the King is an objectionable character but he made the right decision here given Junts is ambiguous about which "bloc" they support. Just default to the largest party in such a situation.

In my opinion the king should have called a second round of consultations. It's too early to appoint Sánchez, since the negotiations with Junts won't be easy.  The king's job is hearing the spokespersons of the parliamentary forces  who inform him about coalition dynamics.


I'm relaxed and ocassionally I sip a beer by the beach's boardwalk.