Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Velasco]

The divergence between the two Canarian provinces is the result of Vox's list for Tenerife being disqualified.

The Vox disqualification  in Santa Cruz de Tenerife obviously benefitted the PP (it came first in the province), but maybe it helped a bit the regionalist CC. The regionalist seat looked imperilled because the longstanding MP Ana Oramas was replaced by Cristina Valido. In case Vox was running, given the results in neighbouring Las Palmas province, it's likely the far-right party would have won a seat at the expense of the PP. The last seat in the province was expected to be disputed between CC and Sumar candidates,  Crisina Valido and Alberto Rodríguez. The regionalist vote increased a little in Las Palmas province (NC got 8%), while in regional elections CC had already increased its vote in some western islands. The volcano crisis in La Palma clearly benefitted CC there, probably because regionalists exploited discontent with the delays in emergency subsidies. I'm not totally sure about it but I wouldn't discard a little percentage of potential Vox voters opted for CC. Anyway I think the poor Sumar performance would have allowed CC to retain its seat with relative ease. It's clear Sumar lost votes to the PSOE in the two provinces of the Canary Islands. For sure vicious infighting and the lack of good candidates played a role in the poor performance: Sumar barely retained a seat in Las Palmas. Canary Islands were one of the strongest regions for Podemos circa 2015-2016. The PSOE is having a good time in the Canaries and it's a pity the Podemos collapse helped to unseat a good regional premier like Angel Víctor Torres. As for Vox, Las Palmas result possibly reveals there's some delay effect in the far-right wave down here

Did CC rule out supporting PP?  In Canary Islands they are in coalition together although that excludes Vox and I believe CC made clear they would not support one with them.

Former MP and spokeswoman Ana Oramas made clear Feijóo has not enough support and CC is not going to back him

[Logical]

In today's episode of funny villages of Spain. Bildu won every vote (with one blank ballot) in the small village of Orexa in the province of Gipuzkoa.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Did CC rule out supporting PP?  In Canary Islands they are in coalition together although that excludes Vox and I believe CC made clear they would not support one with them.

CC promised they would oppose any government which contains either Vox or Sumar

Coalición Canaria no apoyará gobiernos que integren a Vox o a Sumar
La diputada electa en la Cámara Baja, Cristina Valido, ha reiterado su negativa a apoyar ejecutivos que integren «a los extremos»

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

CC's position is very funny, since the only alternative to a right-wing or left-wing government is a grand coalition of PP and PSOE, where CC would not factor into the math or benefit whatsoever. I guess they are genuinely just being liberal centrist moderate heroes.

[Oryxslayer]

CC's position is very funny, since the only alternative to a right-wing or left-wing government is a grand coalition of PP and PSOE, where CC would not factor into the math or benefit whatsoever. I guess they are genuinely just being liberal centrist moderate heroes.

More likely it's just not in their interest to compromise now since Puigdemont is almost certainly going to force a round 2. Nothing can be obtained in return for compromising, and no future doors are preemptively shut.

[Former President tack50]

In today's episode of funny villages of Spain. Bildu won every vote (with one blank ballot) in the small village of Orexa in the province of Gipuzkoa.

Not too surprising, this is absolutely peak peak abertzale territory. They already made headlines in 2015, when the municipality registered its first ever vote for a "Spanish" party! (One vote for Podemos)

[It’s so Joever]

To add onto the “BigSerg is a bumbling idiot” takes, removing Catalonia from Spain would obviously change the politics of the country itself to an extent that old coalitions may just completely fall apart. There are probably plenty who have formed entire political identities around a perceived attack on “Spanish culture” and opposition to secessionism, and removing a key thing fueling that anger could very well cause a massive shift in their voting patterns. For the record this also would mean that Catalonia would not be a uniformly left leaning country even if it votes close to it right now.

[Zinneke]

To add onto the “BigSerg is a bumbling idiot” takes, removing Catalonia from Spain would obviously change the politics of the country itself to an extent that old coalitions may just completely fall apart. There are probably plenty who have formed entire political identities around a perceived attack on “Spanish culture” and opposition to secessionism, and removing a key thing fueling that anger could very well cause a massive shift in their voting patterns. For the record this also would mean that Catalonia would not be a uniformly left leaning country even if it votes close to it right now.

Agreed, but for the last statement. Yes there is a rather nativist current in Catalan nationalism, but nothing like Flemish nationalism or even the Vox brand of nationalism (which isn't racial because the Empire for them is a big deal, but is exclusionary).

I would bet by bottom dollar Catalonia would be a remarkably more progressive society than Spain, which already has admirable social attitudes towards LGBT, etc. Catalonia already has legalised weed, banned bullfighting, and a host of other progressive measures. The whole "Convergencia is comparable to PP" doesn't stand up either. Yes Convergents were the kind of people to care about low taxes, but they were still markedly more progressive than any Spanish right wing entity.

[Velasco]

In today's episode of funny villages of Spain. Bildu won every vote (with one blank ballot) in the small village of Orexa in the province of Gipuzkoa.

Not too surprising, this is absolutely peak peak abertzale territory. They already made headlines in 2015, when the municipality registered its first ever vote for a "Spanish" party! (One vote for Podemos)

Orexa could be the village of Antxonis and Boronix.  You can meet them watching the video below

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Another interesting one:

Huerta de la Obispalía - Cuenca | Sección 01001 - FO finishes in 3rd ahead of PSOE
VOX    39    49,4
PP    25    31,7    
FO    9    11,4    
PSOE    6    7,6    

[mileslunn]

To add onto the “BigSerg is a bumbling idiot” takes, removing Catalonia from Spain would obviously change the politics of the country itself to an extent that old coalitions may just completely fall apart. There are probably plenty who have formed entire political identities around a perceived attack on “Spanish culture” and opposition to secessionism, and removing a key thing fueling that anger could very well cause a massive shift in their voting patterns. For the record this also would mean that Catalonia would not be a uniformly left leaning country even if it votes close to it right now.

Often linguistically and cultural minorities more left wing.  No different than Scotland vs. England or Quebec vs. rest of Canada and probably also some if gained statehood of Puerto Rico vs. current 50 states.  Even in Belgium Wallonia is pretty left wing but offset by Flanders which is at least on economic and cultural issues (not social though) quite right wing.

True unlike other examples, Catalonia is wealthier than most of Spain whereas others poorer than respective countries so that is one difference.

Agreed, but for the last statement. Yes there is a rather nativist current in Catalan nationalism, but nothing like Flemish nationalism or even the Vox brand of nationalism (which isn't racial because the Empire for them is a big deal, but is exclusionary).

I would bet by bottom dollar Catalonia would be a remarkably more progressive society than Spain, which already has admirable social attitudes towards LGBT, etc. Catalonia already has legalised weed, banned bullfighting, and a host of other progressive measures. The whole "Convergencia is comparable to PP" doesn't stand up either. Yes Convergents were the kind of people to care about low taxes, but they were still markedly more progressive than any Spanish right wing entity.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

https://twitter.com/eldiarioes/status/1683811762628329473?s=20

Bildu open to voting for Sanchez it appears. Still, with this there’s no workable majority even if EAJ/PNV also supports Sanchez and both Catalonian parties abstain. Would need ERC to vote for him.

[Bacon King]

Still, with this there’s no workable majority even if EAJ/PNV also supports Sanchez and both Catalonian parties abstain. Would need ERC to vote for him.

I'm no expert here but my impression is that securing the abstention of Junts is an even bigger ask right now than ERC voting in favor

[Torie]

It seems like the gay is a wedge issue everywhere:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/26/pedro-sanchez-spain-general-election-hard-right

“In this most recent campaign he skillfully played the anti-fascist card, harnessing the shock of the far-right Vox party’s entry into a series of municipal and regional coalition governments to mobilise progressive voters. As pride flags were being removed from city halls across the country and gender equality initiatives suppressed, Sánchez framed the vote as a binary choice between a similar hard-right coalition at a national level and his own brand of moderate social democracy.”

Unless it’s Russia or Serbia or Hungary, messing with the gay is bad for your political health it seems (here’s looking at you, DeSantis). Praise Jesus.

[mileslunn]

It seems like the gay is a wedge issue everywhere:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/jul/26/pedro-sanchez-spain-general-election-hard-right

“In this most recent campaign he skillfully played the anti-fascist card, harnessing the shock of the far-right Vox party’s entry into a series of municipal and regional coalition governments to mobilise progressive voters. As pride flags were being removed from city halls across the country and gender equality initiatives suppressed, Sánchez framed the vote as a binary choice between a similar hard-right coalition at a national level and his own brand of moderate social democracy.”

Unless it’s Russia or Serbia or Hungary, messing with the gay is bad for your political health it seems (here’s looking at you, DeSantis). Praise Jesus.

Gay marriage is largely a settled issue in most Western countries and trying to roll it back is not a vote winner.  Yes running on anti-LGBT stuff is a vote winner in many parts of world, not just Eastern Europe, but Africa, Caribbean, Middle East etc.  However, Spain has allowed gay marriage for 18 years and was one of first countries to do so, thus it is status quo and all the negative predictions never materialized so most fine with it.

[BigSerg]

I see Harlow and Battista Minola have already posted excellent rebuttals to BigSerg's latest absurd take, saying basically everything I wanted to say when I first read the post last night

instead of repeating their words I'm just gonna cover one specific point they missed

It is a fact that, without Catalonia, the right wing would ensure its perpetual victory. The Psoe as a party has disappeared from the rest of Spain, the same with Podemos.

This statement betrays your incredible ignorance about Spain's politics and elections

consider the following!

After the November 2019 elections, Sanchez was formally reelected Prime Minister by the Congress of Deputies in an investiture vote on January 7th, 2020.

167 voted for Sanchez, 165 voted against him, and 18 abstained

now let's remove EVERY deputy from Catalonia. All 48 of them, gone. What's the result without any Catalan representation?

148 votes for Sanchez, 149 votes against him, and 5 abstentions.

Is this your "perpetual victory" for the right? a net swing of three seats?

Far from PSOE and Podemos "disappearing" from the rest of Spain, the pro-Sanchez coalition still held HALF of the non-Catalan seats last term!

Like he'd still easily be elected Prime Minister of "the rest of Spain" here, he'd just need to win over the regionalists in Cantabria (or either Canaries or Asturias)

My friend, either you are smoking crack and have no idea what you're talking about or you're a shameless troll knowingly spouting nonsense. Either way it'd be really cool if you could maybe stop

Just look at the amount of fools that give you "recommend" English and illiterate Americans who do not know the reality of Spain. Let me explain, I have Spanish nationality, I lived in Catalonia for years and I know its parliamentary system to perfection. Any Spaniard with an IQ above 1 would agree with me on this, but seeing that pitifully most Anglo-Saxons are intellectually deficient and like to comment on the politics of other countries without having a clue, I will enlighten you a bit with facts.  

2019 was the worst bad faith comparison you could find for a very simple reason, the right split into three different parties Cs, Vox and PP, resulting in the worst possible voting efficiency. Not to mention that the distribution of seats would be different and probably another electoral law would be needed. In these elections the results would be like this:

Spain without Cat: Right: 161 seats
                            Left+Pnv: 139 seats

2016:

Spain without Cat: Right: 159 seats
                            Left+Pnv: 144 seats

2008:

Spain without Cat: Right: 156 seats
                            Left+Pnv: 146 seats


In terms of votes, in all cases the right would have a consistent lead of more than five points in all elections. Without Catalonia, the right would overwhelmingly dominate in all elections, barring exceptional cases of right-wing vote splitting, such as in 2019 or a massive terrorist attack as in 2004.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Catalonia is an integral part of Spain as seen by most people in Spain who are not Catalans. The number of people who are so brain-poisoned by partisan sentiment that they'd like to see a large and integral chunk of the country break away because it votes the wrong way is tiny. It's the same as in Britain: Conservatives who wish that the 2014 referendum in Scotland had gone the other way as Scotland is poor territory for the Conservatives are rather few in number, because that's just not a way of thinking that makes sense to more than a handful of people.

[BigSerg]

Catalonia is an integral part of Spain as seen by most people in Spain who are not Catalans. The number of people who are so brain-poisoned by partisan sentiment that they'd like to see a large and integral chunk of the country break away because it votes the wrong way is tiny. It's the same as in Britain: Conservatives who wish that the 2014 referendum in Scotland had gone the other way as Scotland is poor territory for the Conservatives are rather few in number, because that's just not a way of thinking that makes sense to more than a handful of people.

I replied to Bacon King for making a comparison obviously in bad faith and talking nonsense.

My friend, either you are smoking crack and have no idea what you're talking about or you're a shameless troll knowingly spouting nonsense. Either way it'd be really cool if you could maybe stop

[Velasco]

In terms of votes, in all cases the right would have a consistent lead of more than five points in all elections. Without Catalonia, the right would overwhelmingly dominate in all elections, barring exceptional cases of right-wing vote splitting, such as in 2019 or a massive terrorist attack as in 2004.

It seems that evil catalans prevented Fraga landslides in the 1980s (and maybe in the 1990s). Is that the reason why VOX wants to ban separatist parties, or the reason why your beloved Pablo Iglesias and Gabriel Rufián became friends?


I abhor fake plástic patriots preferring a broken Spain to a 'red one. I don't know if you are an actual Spanish citizen,  but certainly you don't love our country. I loarhe sectarians who are not willing to admit people who is different from them, or  think differently. Shame in you, totalitarian and haters

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Still, with this there’s no workable majority even if EAJ/PNV also supports Sanchez and both Catalonian parties abstain. Would need ERC to vote for him.

I'm no expert here but my impression is that securing the abstention of Junts is an even bigger ask right now than ERC voting in favor

Absolutely. They want to use their position to demand amnesty for Catalan leaders and bargain for an independence referendum in exchange for support/abstaining. They also benefit more from a right wing Spain as it would increase Catalan independence sentiment.

[icc]

Catalonia is an integral part of Spain as seen by most people in Spain who are not Catalans. The number of people who are so brain-poisoned by partisan sentiment that they'd like to see a large and integral chunk of the country break away because it votes the wrong way is tiny. It's the same as in Britain: Conservatives who wish that the 2014 referendum in Scotland had gone the other way as Scotland is poor territory for the Conservatives are rather few in number, because that's just not a way of thinking that makes sense to more than a handful of people.

And somehow I think the 'Spanish unity' card which PP has used to great effect to win elections in Castilian Spain would be of somewhat of lesser value a complete joke if they allowed an area of the country (never mind one of its economic engines) to secede.

[DL]

This discussion about how the Spanish right would benefit from Catalonia seceding reminds me of how many conservatives in Canada were secretly hoping Quebec would vote to separate since the extreme unpopularity of the Conservatives in Quebec always made it almost impossible for them to win power nationally.   

[Velasco]

Still, with this there’s no workable majority even if EAJ/PNV also supports Sanchez and both Catalonian parties abstain. Would need ERC to vote for him.

I'm no expert here but my impression is that securing the abstention of Junts is an even bigger ask right now than ERC voting in favor

Absolutely. They want to use their position to demand amnesty for Catalan leaders and bargain for an independence referendum in exchange for support/abstaining. They also benefit more from a right wing Spain as it would increase Catalan independence sentiment.

I think the leaders of the pro-independence camp were assuming the inevitabitablity of a right-wing majoroty. It's possible the most radical elements within Junts and ERC were secretly hoping that eventuality would increase the support for independence. We have seen some timid approaches towards unity among Catalan nationalists, but right now they are not close yo achieve it.

Even though it would be a mistake to believe the PSC result in general elections means the Catalan conflict is over, the message sent by ballot boxes is too loud and clear to be unheard. A majority of the Catalan society nowadays favours dialogue and pragmarism over conflict and maximalist demands.

Junts people must be aware their demands are unrealistic in this moment. Pedro Sánchez has taken steps towards the normalization and the dtabilization of Catalonia, sometimes costly in terms of public opinion outside Catalonia. However, it seems impossible for him to assume the cost of a general amnesty (let alone independence referendum). On the other hand, I think it's undeniable that a full normalization in Catalonia cannot be achieved with Catalan leaders living abroad in a self-imposed exile. So I think the challenge is to find a formula to allow Puigdemont and others to return without issuing a decree of amnesty. That would require a good deal of pragmatism and realism and i'm not sure Puigdemont posseses such virtues. On the other hand, it's ironic the balance of forces has given Puigdemont such power of decision with such a poor election result

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Still, with this there’s no workable majority even if EAJ/PNV also supports Sanchez and both Catalonian parties abstain. Would need ERC to vote for him.

I'm no expert here but my impression is that securing the abstention of Junts is an even bigger ask right now than ERC voting in favor

Absolutely. They want to use their position to demand amnesty for Catalan leaders and bargain for an independence referendum in exchange for support/abstaining. They also benefit more from a right wing Spain as it would increase Catalan independence sentiment.

I think the leaders of the pro-independence camp were assuming the inevitabitablity of a right-wing majoroty. It's possible the most radical elements within Junts and ERC were secretly hoping that eventuality would increase the support for independence. We have seen some timid approaches towards unity among Catalan nationalists, but right now they are not close yo achieve it.

Even though it would be a mistake to believe the PSC result in general elections means the Catalan conflict is over, the message sent by ballot boxes is too loud and clear to be unheard. A majority of the Catalan society nowadays favours dialogue and pragmarism over conflict and maximalist demands.

Junts people must be aware their demands are unrealistic in this moment. Pedro Sánchez has taken steps towards the normalization and the dtabilization of Catalonia, sometimes costly in terms of public opinion outside Catalonia. However, it seems impossible for him to assume the cost of a general amnesty (let alone independence referendum). On the other hand, I think it's undeniable that a full normalization in Catalonia cannot be achieved with Catalan leaders living abroad in a self-imposed exile. So I think the challenge is to find a formula to allow Puigdemont and others to return without issuing a decree of amnesty. That would require a good deal of pragmatism and realism and i'm not sure Puigdemont posseses such virtues. On the other hand, it's ironic the balance of forces has given Puigdemont such power of decision with such a poor election result

if Puigdemont risks political persecution, he isn't going to return and he'll sell his skin dearly. At least, he would be dumb not too.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

If one needed any proof that Spain has a God with a sense of humor, it's that Carles Puigdemont is the key to form the government seeking his persecution.