Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on Spanish politics or even be able to say what conclusions can be drawn from this election, but there is no circumstance where Vox getting their culos kicked isn't worth celebrating.

[kaoras]

In a twist that will shock literally no one not overdosing on copium, PNV has said that it will not pact or even negotiate with PP.

[Senator Incitatus]

I'm not going to pretend to be an expert on Spanish politics or even be able to say what conclusions can be drawn from this election, but there is no circumstance where Vox getting their culos kicked isn't worth celebrating.

I'm having a hard time agreeing with the emerging CW that the "far-right" was badly defeated here since it seems like the Vox vote dipped because much of their vote appears to have shifted to PP, who were increasingly willing to enter a coalition with them, and obviously the overall right-of-center vote jumped.

Am I wrong here?

[Velasco]

The Secretary General of Podemos, Ione Belarra, is tackling Yolanda Diaz hard :

https://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20230724/9130580/belarra-culpa-diaz-perdida-votos-renuncia-feminismo-e-invisibilizar.html

I was also perplexed as to why Sumar were so happy with losing seats, but in a context where the "left of PSOE" parties were on a road to a cliff and being wiped out fully, it is understandable. Still, I find Diaz's campaigning a bit too much like the "Everything is Awesome" Lego Movie song. Hugs and smiles won't solve crippled political systems.

Here's why Sumar failed to improve upon Podemos performance: they didn't emphasize gender neutral pronouns enough and they didn't emphasize their association with political figures who are despised by 80% of Spaniards enough.

The Yolanda Diaz people is happy with the results because they expected a poorer performance (some pollsters projected less than 30 seats for the platform) and specially because the worst case PP-VOX scenario has been averted. The viability of the Sumar project depends on the possibility of a progressive coalition government. Even though I believe some of the hatred for Irene Montero is undeserved and she has suffered a brutal harassment from rightwing media, Ione Belarra knows there's no future for Podemos outside Sumar. All in all Sumar managed to save furniture in the bigger constituencies and its loses were compensated by the PSOE gains. The Yolanda Diaz platform remains as a viable force, but it will be necessary to rebuild or reconfigurate the heterogeneous space to the left of the PSOE

[Velasco]

Precinct map is out
https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaciones-elecciones-generales-23j-por-calles_1_10377837.html

My precinct is in a diehard sanchista neighbourhood

PSOE 43.3% (+12.4%)
PP 20.4% (-1.7%)
SUMAR 15.2% (-6.4%)
VOX 12.8% (+2.0%)
NC 4.4%
CC 2.2% (-3.1%*)

*CC-NC in 2019

[BigSerg]

I have always wondered why the Spanish right wing is so determined to keep Catalonia. What I have always supported is an agreed independence, with UN supervisors. Of course, with the corresponding debt and with vetoes to both NATO and the EU.

It is a fact that, without Catalonia, the right wing would ensure its perpetual victory. The Psoe as a party has disappeared from the rest of Spain, the same with Podemos. To want to keep Catalonia in these conditions is foolishness and masochistic fetishism. Of course the Psoe knows this perfectly well and that is why I believe they would never agree to a referendum.

[Harlow]

I have always wondered why the Spanish right wing is so determined to keep Catalonia. It is a gangrenous appendage that only gets in the way and causes putrefaction in the body. What I have always supported is an agreed independence, with UN supervisors. Of course, with the corresponding debt and with vetoes to both NATO and the EU.

It is a fact that, without Catalonia, the right wing would ensure its perpetual victory. The Psoe as a party has disappeared from the rest of Spain, the same with Podemos. To want to keep Catalonia in these conditions is foolishness and masochistic fetishism. Of course the Psoe knows this perfectly well and that is why I believe they would never agree to a referendum.

If the PP became the party that let Catalonia go their usurpation by Vox would be all but guaranteed. Not to mention that it would likely cause a domino effect leading to the Basque country declaring independence, and who knows which other regions in the decades to come. Spain is an incredibly fractured country and the relative success of many of its regionalist parties demonstrates how fragile it is.

[Velasco]

Sorry if this has already been asked, but maybe some more knowledgeable posters can answer this:

Why has right-of-center moderate Catalanism become electorally unviable? It seems that a part of former CiU voters embraced Puigdemont's radicalization on the Catalan question and his tentatives to swallow the rest of the pro-independence spectrum; while the rest of CiU's once formidable 30-40% completely jumped ship. Uniò running alone, PDeCAT running alone, PNC, etc. all failed miserably. Superficially one might expect a big void at that place in the Catalan political landscape, but there seem to be no voters in that place.

That's a good question and many people in Spain was wondering why the attempts to launch a moderate nationalist alternative failed so miserably. Everybody here was assuming there was a void to fill, but it's possible that moderantism and pragmatism simply vanished with the turn of events. That's not an easy question to answer even for Catalan insiders, often perplexed by the astonishing complexity and intrincacy of their political scene. I think it's obvious the Catalan middle class has undergone a process of radicalization on the national question over the last 12-13 years. The political, sociological or economic causes are arguably intricate. On the other hand we have what once was the impressive CiU's rural base of support, conservative people loving order that could vote for PP or Vox in other parts of Spain. I guess some of them support Junts nowadays as a matter of tradition, but anyway those sectors are staunchly pro-independence as separatism became mainstream. Junts is the apparent heir of CiU, but it only represents part of that broad base of support. Nowadays ERC is disputing the middle-class nationalist vote and to a lesser extent the rural vote. Junts is far from being monolithic. There are still some moderate or pragmatic elements within that space, like the old Xavier Trias who contested the Barcelona local elections). However, Puigdemont favours the radical elements and seeks to retain the control of Junts from his Waterloo exile. I'd say increasing fragmentation and competition, alongside sociológical changes and radicalization, or even tradition, leave no room for moderate nationalist parties. Besides, all those failed attempts were lacking charismatic leaders

[Skye]

Not about to doxx myself by posting the entirety of my precinct results, but let’s just say the PP got 60%.

[icc]

And a look at the change in Sumar vote, firstly compared to the combined vote of their predecessors (Podemos + Más País + CHA + Més + Compromís), and secondly compared to the Podemos vote.

- After years of infighting (which Podemos leader Ione Belarra looks like she wants to repeat if her performance yesterday is anything to go by), it is clear that Díaz's strategy to achieve left unity saved the furniture for the left. Areas where an ally had run in 2019 were some of the worst in terms of performance compared with 'potential', as voters leaked to PSOE, but the best in terms of performance compared with Podemos. Even a small Más País style split, never mind Podemos running alone, would probably have meant disaster for the far left in this election.
- Some of the patterns in the first map are similar to those in the PSOE map, due to what was going on in other parties: Teruel, Melilla, Cantabria, Soria.
- The same goes for Cataluña, where the nationalist collapse helped prop up Sumar, particularly in Girona where they saved a very vulnerable seat.
- The inclusion of Compromís did lead to small increases on Podemos' performance in 2 of the 3 Valencian provinces (though not enough to save the seat in Castellón), but the level of transfer was very low and must come as a disappointment. It's clear that many left-leaning voters in this Autonomous Community went PSOE this time.
- The same was true to an even greater extent in the Balearic Islands, where the Sumar result was simply abysmal. With the addition of strong allies they should have been looking to gain a seat, but instead they went backwards on the Podemos result and lost a seat. Obviously votes don't transfer perfectly, but I'm not sure what the causes for the scale of the failure are.
- As I wrote on the PSOE map, there was a big swing from Sumar to PSOE in the Canaries. I have no idea why.
- Like PSOE, Sumar were squeezed in Galicia by the favourite son vote for Feijóo and the good nationalist result. There was no sign of a favourite daughter vote for Díaz, though I guess it could have been even worse.
- The result in the Basque Country + Navarra was very poor (the site of 3/7 of the party's losses) as Sumar were squeezed between strong PSOE and Bildu performances.

[Benjamin Frank]

Not that this is the most important thing, but

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/1683436415785349120

How can Bloomberg know that there was a last minute surge rather than the polls being wrong all along?

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I have always wondered why the Spanish right wing is so determined to keep Catalonia. It is a gangrenous appendage that only gets in the way and causes putrefaction in the body. What I have always supported is an agreed independence, with UN supervisors. Of course, with the corresponding debt and with vetoes to both NATO and the EU.

It is a fact that, without Catalonia, the right wing would ensure its perpetual victory. The Psoe as a party has disappeared from the rest of Spain, the same with Podemos. To want to keep Catalonia in these conditions is foolishness and masochistic fetishism. Of course the Psoe knows this perfectly well and that is why I believe they would never agree to a referendum.

Maybe because the Spanish right-wing and for that matter most of the Spanish public (though details vary enormously) is firmly convinced that Catalonia is indeed an integral part of Spain? It's also the wealthiest autonomous community together with Madrid and produces 20% of the Spanish GDP. I am sure you already know all of this though, so I am going to classify your post as extended cope.

[CookieDamage]

Who has the link to the results by municipality?

[rob in cal]

Is PNV rejection of talks with PP because of vox related issues, or even without the vox factor would their attitude be the same.

[somerandomth]

How can Bloomberg know that there was a last minute surge rather than the polls being wrong all along?

Bloomberg is so dumb lol. Even the exit polls to some extent had the same polling error, so it most likely was due to polling error rather than a late surge.

[It’s so Joever]

I have always wondered why the Spanish right wing is so determined to keep Catalonia. It is a gangrenous appendage that only gets in the way and causes putrefaction in the body. What I have always supported is an agreed independence, with UN supervisors. Of course, with the corresponding debt and with vetoes to both NATO and the EU.

It is a fact that, without Catalonia, the right wing would ensure its perpetual victory. The Psoe as a party has disappeared from the rest of Spain, the same with Podemos. To want to keep Catalonia in these conditions is foolishness and masochistic fetishism. Of course the Psoe knows this perfectly well and that is why I believe they would never agree to a referendum.

Cope right wing LARPing Russia Simp.

[MRCVzla]

Who has the link to the results by municipality?

There's a lot of maps about the results by municipality or even by precinct.
By municipality

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2023/07/24/64bd6f47fdddffd7058b45b2.html
https://www.eldiario.es/politica/resultados-elecciones-generales-23j-por-municipio_1_10377802.html
https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/elecciones-generales/2023-07-23/resultados-elecciones-generales-23j-municipio_3701921/

By precinct

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-generales/2023-07-24/el-mapa-con-los-resultados-de-las-elecciones-generales-del-23-j-calle-a-calle.html
https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20230724/elecciones-generales-mapa-resultados-seccion-censal-2023/2452590.shtml
https://www.elmundo.es/elecciones/elecciones-generales/2023/07/24/64be9b5de4d4d8c8288b45b7.html
https://www.abc.es/espana/votado-tus-vecinos-mapa-calle-calle-resultados-20230724161749-nt.html
https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaciones-elecciones-generales-23j-por-calles_1_10377837.html
https://www.elespanol.com/espana/20230724/mapa-elecciones-generales-calle-consulta-resultados-seccion-censal/1003121757796_32.html
https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/elecciones-generales/2023-07-24/los-resultados-de-las-elecciones-generales-en-toda-espana-calle-a-calle_3705729/

Also on the official results site can be downloaded more detailed data in a zip archive: https://resultados.generales23j.es/es/descargas

[Bacon King]

I see Harlow and Battista Minola have already posted excellent rebuttals to BigSerg's latest absurd take, saying basically everything I wanted to say when I first read the post last night

instead of repeating their words I'm just gonna cover one specific point they missed

It is a fact that, without Catalonia, the right wing would ensure its perpetual victory. The Psoe as a party has disappeared from the rest of Spain, the same with Podemos.

This statement betrays your incredible ignorance about Spain's politics and elections

consider the following!

After the November 2019 elections, Sanchez was formally reelected Prime Minister by the Congress of Deputies in an investiture vote on January 7th, 2020.

167 voted for Sanchez, 165 voted against him, and 18 abstained

now let's remove EVERY deputy from Catalonia. All 48 of them, gone. What's the result without any Catalan representation?

148 votes for Sanchez, 149 votes against him, and 5 abstentions.

Is this your "perpetual victory" for the right? a net swing of three seats?

Far from PSOE and Podemos "disappearing" from the rest of Spain, the pro-Sanchez coalition still held HALF of the non-Catalan seats last term!

Like he'd still easily be elected Prime Minister of "the rest of Spain" here, he'd just need to win over the regionalists in Cantabria (or either Canaries or Asturias)

My friend, either you are smoking crack and have no idea what you're talking about or you're a shameless troll knowingly spouting nonsense. Either way it'd be really cool if you could maybe stop

[Keep Calm and ...]

Who has the link to the results by municipality?

http://www.rtve.es/noticias/elecciones/generales/mapa-resultados/
https://www.eldiario.es/politica/resultados-elecciones-generales-23j-por-municipio_1_10377802.html
https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2023/07/24/64bd6f47fdddffd7058b45b2.html
https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-generales/2023-07-23/los-resultados-de-las-elecciones-generales-del-23-j-municipio-a-municipio.html?ssm=TW_CM

[icc]

And now onto the changes in the PP vote. They also get two maps. The first is the change from their vote last time, the second is the change in the vote from them + Ciudadanos. The two didn't run together in 2019, but given the cannibalisation of the vote I think the second map is more illuminating. Couple of notes - the scale on the first map is different, and I have treated Navarra differently in the two maps. In the first one I have shown the PP change from the NA+ (alliance of PP, Cs and UPN) vote in 2019, in the second map I have shown the change in the combined PP+UPN vote from NA+.

- Navarra obviously stands out in the first map, which is due to UPN running alone.
- Some patterns again remain the same with other parties (big increase in Cantabria, decent one in Teruel - in the second map - and poor result in Soria)
- The results in Castilla & León were underwhelming, though they come from a relatively high base, particularly once you factor in Cs.
- There is a pattern in the second map of stronger performances where Vox did well in 2019, as the smaller party's vote was cannibalised.
- Strong increases in both African possessions.
- Very clear in both maps is the extremely strong performance in Andalucía. Just as the PSOE underwhelmed, the PP did very well. Worth noting that this isn't just a demographic shift, but something more localised, as otherwise you'd expect the same patterns in e.g. Extremadura.
- Very strong result in Galicia (much more obvious in the second map), most likely down to a vote for local boy Alberto Feijóo.
- Good increases in Madrid and Asturias, neither of which I can find a compelling explanation for (though I guess the Ayuso regional government in Madrid is mega-popular so that might have something to do with it).
- Failure to make any sort of impact in the Basque Country or Cataluña, even from a very low base. In the latter it is perhaps unsurprising that they were barely able to match the PP+Cs performance given it was Ciudadanos' home ground, but still a poor performance. The rightward shift and dalliance with Vox is clearly causing both of  these non-Castilian Autonomous Communities to diverge even further from the rest of Spain.
- The slightly weird looking mismatch between the two Canary Islands provinces is due to Vox failing to run a list in Santa Cruz de Tenerife.

[Logical]

The divergence between the two Canarian provinces is the result of Vox's list for Tenerife being disqualified.

[icc]

The divergence between the two Canarian provinces is the result of Vox's list for Tenerife being disqualified.

Yep, just realised that myself.

[icc]

And finally, Vox. The most obvious pattern here is that they lost more voteshare where they did best in 2019, but there are a couple of other things to note.

- The poor result in Andalucía is part of the pattern noted above, but it's also clear that they as well as PSOE fell victim to the PP overperformance here.
- The massive fall in Santa Cruz de Tenerife is due to not running a list, but the increase in Las Palmas is interesting. Combined with overperformances for PSOE and underperformances for the PP and Sumar, it looks like the Canaries just decided to do their own thing.
- Increasing their (admittedly mostly paltry) voteshares in Cataluña and the Basque Country, combined with lacklustre PP showings in the same areas, probably indicates that a fair proportion of the remaining hardcore 'constitutionalist' Ciudadanos voters switched over to Vox this time.
- The result in Galicia doesn't stand out on the map, but is quite an impressive fall given how low the Vox vote started off there, and again indicates that Feijóo's 'local boy' status served the PP well here.
- Though both leant left, the Vox overperformances really hit home how 'catch all' the voter bases of the PRC in Cantabria and TE in Teruel were / are.

[CookieDamage]

Who has the link to the results by municipality?

There's a lot of maps about the results by municipality or even by precinct.
By municipality

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2023/07/24/64bd6f47fdddffd7058b45b2.html
https://www.eldiario.es/politica/resultados-elecciones-generales-23j-por-municipio_1_10377802.html
https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/elecciones-generales/2023-07-23/resultados-elecciones-generales-23j-municipio_3701921/

By precinct

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones-generales/2023-07-24/el-mapa-con-los-resultados-de-las-elecciones-generales-del-23-j-calle-a-calle.html
https://www.rtve.es/noticias/20230724/elecciones-generales-mapa-resultados-seccion-censal-2023/2452590.shtml
https://www.elmundo.es/elecciones/elecciones-generales/2023/07/24/64be9b5de4d4d8c8288b45b7.html
https://www.abc.es/espana/votado-tus-vecinos-mapa-calle-calle-resultados-20230724161749-nt.html
https://www.eldiario.es/politica/votaciones-elecciones-generales-23j-por-calles_1_10377837.html
https://www.elespanol.com/espana/20230724/mapa-elecciones-generales-calle-consulta-resultados-seccion-censal/1003121757796_32.html
https://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/elecciones-generales/2023-07-24/los-resultados-de-las-elecciones-generales-en-toda-espana-calle-a-calle_3705729/

Also on the official results site can be downloaded more detailed data in a zip archive: https://resultados.generales23j.es/es/descargas

Thank you!

[mileslunn]

Did CC rule out supporting PP?  In Canary Islands they are in coalition together although that excludes Vox and I believe CC made clear they would not support one with them.