OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Brittain33]

OMG, someone mentioned JD Vance as a Republican candidate. Please no.

I agree that is either Lean or Likely R depending on how much uncertainty you’re willing to tolerate this far out, but is very likely to be Likely R by summer 2022.

The more I think about it, the more Lean R feels like wishcasting given the track record of open senate seats in midterms where the President lost the state 2 years earlier. This is Likely R, full stop.

[walleye26]

I would say Likely R for now.
Assuming Stivers, Chabot, Wenstrup or some Generic R, I would give the R’s about an 85% chance, even against a good candidate from the Dems.
If Jordan gets it, I would say 60/40 he wins against a Ryan type.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Republicans are about to have a clown car primary. There's gonna be atleast four major names, and half a dozen others

[MarkD]

My only observation to make at this point is that I will miss Portman. I appreciate the fact that one of his reasons for retiring is that he is sick and tired of the partisanship in the Senate. That reminds me of a similar statement made almost 30 years ago by Colorado Democrat Tim Wirth (1987 - 1993), who decided to retire with only one term in the Senate with one reason for doing so was that he was disappointed that the Senate turned out to be just as partisan as the House had been. We need more Senators who think that way, although given that we have Senate Leaders like Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer, it is understandable to look the whole situation over and conclude that there's no end in sight. I will also miss the fact that he was one of the few Republican Senators who supported SSM because he loves and supports his openly gay son.

[Epaminondas]

The more I think about it, the more Lean R feels like wishcasting given the track record of open senate seats in midterms where the President lost the state 2 years earlier. This is Likely R, full stop.

When are the last times this has happened for the Democrats? For the GOP I can think of Iowa 2014, Illinois and Pennsylvania 2010, Minnesota 2002.

Could the last occurrence be (slimeball) Evan Bayh in Indiana 1998? And before that, Harry Reid in Nevada 1986?

We're totally screwed.

[Epaminondas]

We need more Senators who think that way, although given that we have Senate Leaders like Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer, it is understandable to look the whole situation over and conclude that there's no end in sight

Will bountiful examples of Schumer obstructing constructive legislation for months be forthcoming after such unabashed both-sideism?

[Brittain33]

The more I think about it, the more Lean R feels like wishcasting given the track record of open senate seats in midterms where the President lost the state 2 years earlier. This is Likely R, full stop.

When are the last times this has happened for the Democrats? For the GOP I can think of Iowa 2014, Illinois and Pennsylvania 2010, Minnesota 2002.

Could the last occurrence be (slimeball) Evan Bayh in Indiana 1998?

We're totally screwed.

I should have been more precise - where the victorious President lost the state in the previous general election, i.e. a midterm for your own party's President. Parties win senate seats in midterms where they lost the state and the electoral college in the previous general election all the time.

So the only midterms to look at for Dems are 2014, 2010, 1998, and 1994, and the only positive examples are Indiana and NC in 1998. For Republicans, you have MN in 2002.

[BuckeyeNut]

Some more Republican names emerging:

* David Joyce, Congressman and former Geauga County Prosecutor
* Matt Dolan, State Senator and family owner of the Cleveland Indians
* Mike Gibbons, businessman and former Senate candidate (2018)

Congressman Troy Balderson (OH-12) has also taken himself out of the running. One of few big names to do so at this early stage.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

My only observation to make at this point is that I will miss Portman. I appreciate the fact that one of his reasons for retiring is that he is sick and tired of the partisanship in the Senate. That reminds me of a similar statement made almost 30 years ago by Colorado Democrat Tim Wirth (1987 - 1993), who decided to retire with only one term in the Senate with one reason for doing so was that he was disappointed that the Senate turned out to be just as partisan as the House had been. We need more Senators who think that way, although given that we have Senate Leaders like Mitch McConnell and Chuck Schumer, it is understandable to look the whole situation over and conclude that there's no end in sight. I will also miss the fact that he was one of the few Republican Senators who supported SSM because he loves and supports his openly gay son.

Portman is slimy, and he contributed to that hyper-partisanship. Where was he when his president was commiting crimes worthy of impeachment? Falling in line. Where was he when his minority party was ramming through yet another unqualified hack to a lifetime court appointment? Falling in line.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio is the inverse of Virginia, this race is Safe R

No it's not, Sherrod Brown is an entranced incumbent, we are gonna win OH.  Why do Rs think that WI, OH, MN and IA are safe R we get the same routine every Election, it never changes

We also have Biden whom have a 52 Percent approvals not 40 percent Trump, that's why Ron Johnson is at 35 percent in the polls and on the verge of losing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

a Tim Ryan v Renacci race looks promising for Ds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tim Ryan thinking about US Senate, not Safe R if Tim Ryan goes for it

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1353780222680838144

[bee33]

[If my soul was made of stone]

He's almost certainly getting drawn out, so he really has nothing to lose. Still don't see him winning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I do and plan to donate to him like Jeff Jackson and Fetterman

[Pollster]

He would need to run an absolutely pitch perfect, gaffe-free campaign and hope he draws an opponent who is nuclear-level toxic in the suburbs. Even then, the national environment would need to be favorable, and the Republican primary would need to be more bruising than the Democratic one. A lot needs to go right.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1354524396476653572

[WD]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1354524396476653572

I wonder if someone like Turner might get in.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am waiting for Tim Ryan to run, if he loses he will go for Cabinet and run for Gov in 2026, no sense to stay in an R gerrymandering OH

I will donate to Fetterman, Jackson and Ryan if they all are nominated

[JMT]

The news of Husted not running was already posted here, but worth noting that Husted (in his statement) said that he will run for re-election as Lieutenant Governor in 2022, and he hopes to someday run for Governor (presumably in 2026, when DeWine would be term limited).

https://twitter.com/jonhusted/status/1354525336692809729?s=21

[brucejoel99]

So I guess the presumed 'one-term' deal that he & DeWine supposedly reached when they teamed-up in 2018 wasn't a thing.

[JMT]

Tiberi out:

https://twitter.com/jamesarkin/status/1354430647482392577?s=21

[Kingpoleon]

Tiberi out:

https://twitter.com/jamesarkin/status/1354430647482392577?s=21

With him and Kasich out, Matt Borges and Steve Austria are the only remaining moderates who might attempt it - and they have much lower profiles.

[Badger]

Ryan is probably, and I emphasize that word, the best potential candidate Democrats have. Since his seat will probably get carved up in redistricting and only makes sense for him to run.

If Jim renacci sticks with his plan to primary do line, the Republican primary probably becomes a Mandel- Jordan race even if they are not the only declared candidates.

If Jordan wins, that's probably the only scenario where the race becomes somewhat competitive. But even then running against Ryan it's still probably somewhere between lean-to likely R given Ohio's painfully  rapid republican Trend and the fact it'll be a Biden midterm election.

I wish these things weren't true. It was bad enough having Jordan as my Congressman for several years , so the thought of him as my senator makes my skin crawl. Nevertheless, that doesn't make this glum prognosis any less real.

[KaiserDave]

A Jordan-Mandel* primary would be horrifying


*Called the Anti-Defamation league a partisan witch hunt organization when they criticized him for praising Cernovich and Probosiec