Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Estrella]

You heard it here first - in late August December some mediocre centrist right-wing party surges in the polls and everyone gets all kinds of hopeful that Bibi is finally on the way out. Come election day, Likud wins outright and the right wins 70 90 seats.

May as well hold the bloody thing tomorrow.

[Estrella]

What is Labor going to do now that they're polling at like 1%? Some sort of coalition with Gantz (as in, him giving Peretz and Shmuli places on his list)?

[Estrella]

Reports of Labour's death were greatly exagorated?

yay, the former natural governing party might win 4% instead of 2%, THEY'RE BACK!

[Estrella]

Reports of Labour's death were greatly exagorated?

yay, the former natural governing party might win 4% instead of 2%, THEY'RE BACK!

Labour is Isreali politics' best imitation of a zombie. Change my mind.

[Estrella]

Reports of Labour's death were greatly exagorated?

yay, the former natural governing party might win 4% instead of 2%, THEY'RE BACK!

Labour is Isreali politics' best imitation of a zombie. Change my mind.

*snippity snip*

I love this. Thank you.

_{Why do all Israeli party logos look like they ripped them off the cover of a supermarket flyer tho}

[Estrella]

I didn't see Gantz party in polls?

Gantz is Blue and White which makes it in most, but not all polls.

Pretty crazy to imagine that just a year ago we'd have assumed that "makes it" means comes first ahead of Likud...

[Estrella]

Why are there so many parties? In other parliamentary democracies, you end up with two major parties and a few smaller ones. Why is this different in Israel? It seems like there are just a bunch of small-medium sized parties + Likud.

Infinitesimal Factionalism. If you want to have your mind blown every one of these parties except maybe Yisrael Beitenu is either an umbrella organization/alliance for smaller parties and factions or a merger of several parties and factions - including Likud. I don't recommend it to anyone deeply familiar with Israeli politics, but there is a good primer for the uninformed that I wrote for DDHQ (which is itself a summery of the two that I wrote for the newsletter) up on their site right now that explains why this is a thing.

AKA: you put two Jews in a room you get 3 opinions but politics.

"Several" is a bit of an understatement.

Meretz and Labour are now officially together. Anyone knows how many historical parties have immersed in this move? (It’s much more than 10)

Depends on how pedantic we want to get.

From the top:

Labor-Gesher-Meretz

Easiest one first: Gesher (1)
From Orly Levy: Yisrael Beiteinu (2)

Democratic Union (3)
Meretz (4)
-Ratz (5)
--Ya'ad-Civil Rights Movement (6)
--Left Camp of Israel (7)
---Independent Socialist Faction (8 )
---Meri (9)
---Moked (10)
----Maki (11)
-----Hebrew Communists (12)
-----Palestine Communist Party (13)
-----National Liberation League (14)
----Siah (15)
---Black Panthers (16)
-Mapam (17)
--Hashomer Hatzair (18)
---Socialist League of Palestine (19)
--Poale Zion (20)
-Shinui (21)
--Dash (22)

Democratic Israel (23)
From Ehud Barak: Independence  (24)

Democratic Choice (25)
-Yisrael BaAliyah (26)

Avoda (27)
Mapai (28)
-Ahdut haAvoda (29)
-Hapoel Hatzair (30)
Rafi (31)

From Labor alliances:
HaMaarakh (32)
One Israel (33)
Zionist Union (34)

From Amir Peretz:
One Nation (35)
Hatnuah (36)
- Hetz (37)

Possible additions: Kadima from Hatnuah, Likud from Kadima , Greens from DU and Hatnuah, Meimad from Greens. Possibly Kulanu from Avi Gabbay, if we're being silly, and Likud again from Kulanu, and then all of the Likud historical bullsh**t. And we can even get all of Mapam's Arab and other satellites.

[Estrella]

Reuven Rivlin's term ends this summer, right?

That's either a potential stumbling block or the ultimate bribe for a power-hungry backbencher.

[Estrella]

A summary of the last two years from ag on the other Atlas:

"For you to live to see the 40th Knesset" sounds like a Jewish blessing - except that it might, actually, be a curse.

[Estrella]

I have to wonder if they're real leaks or "leaks" as a way of saying things you can't say openly.

[Estrella]

The grandest of coalitions.

Fun fact: this is how Bibi actually looks like under the makeup. Staying in power despite losing four elections is hazardous for your health.

_{[continued from here]}

[Estrella]

https://twitter.com/Gil_Hoffman/status/1401559973331603457?s=20
Netanyhu went full Trump today in front of Likud MKs. He continues to try and tie this to the GOP, despite then having no power to influence the situation.

Orbach also hasn't decided, but I suspect we are heading for 60 in favor, 57-59 oppose, and enough abstentions to pass.

Who's Abbas seated next too ? any choice must be ackward.

Would be an easier choice if he were in opposition. Ra'am, Shas, UTJ and Religious Zionists are four sides of the same theocratic coin. It must be a strange coin, but such is Israel.