Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[Hnv1]

Smotric added the Sydney Powell of Israel in Simcha Rotman to his list. I am going to make a careful prediction: mergers or not I don't think Smotric is going to pass the threshold.

This is a lazy forced comparison to American politics. Rotman has a different opinion than the supreme court regarding the role of the judiciary, he hasn't petitioned the supreme court to cancel the results of elections based on internet conspiracies.

I wasn’t comparing the legal approaches of two lawyers from completely different legal frameworks. I compared two terrible jurists who lack basic understanding of the their respective legal frameworks and their extreme personality (well Rotman is also ignorant in political theory, and lives in an illegal Maachaz, so in a sense he’s even worse).

Rotman’s book is simply pathetic. Terrible understanding of law and flaming internet fools with fictional accounts of the SC. The right has excellent jurists, Rotman is just a populist dumb nut.

Oh and he personally physically threatened an acquaintance of mine who is a civil rights attorney (he’s quite massive IRL).

So yeah, like Powell he’s ignorant, extreme, violent, and populist.

[jaymichaud]

Soo the Joint List is officially split. Ra'am and Ta'al are both running on their own.

[Sestak]

why tf is Ta'al leaving?

[Hnv1]

Soo the Joint List is officially split. Ra'am and Ta'al are both running on their own.

Ta'al will rejoin. Just upping their negotiation with Hadash atm.

[warandwar]

Soo the Joint List is officially split. Ra'am and Ta'al are both running on their own.

Ta'al will rejoin. Just upping their negotiation with Hadash atm.

Plus seeming like the ones who pushed the hardest for unity...

[America Needs R'hllor]

Zalicha = round 1 Zehut = round 2/3 (I don't even remember now) Otzma. Empty balloon

[Zinneke]

The Zehut hype feels so long away now.

[Hnv1]

Zalicha = round 1 Zehut = round 2/3 (I don't even remember now) Otzma. Empty balloon

Otzma got 20k votes in round 3, hardly substantial. Round 1 was the big waste in votes.

I think Zalicha burns votes from both blocs. Telem will get a pathetic showing (Ephraim Sneh style). Shelah will either join some union or quit before. So the biggest waste will probably come from the religious right again, and maybe one Arab party.

[palandio]

Zalicha = round 1 Zehut = round 2/3 (I don't even remember now) Otzma. Empty balloon

Otzma got 20k votes in round 3, hardly substantial. Round 1 was the big waste in votes.

I think Zalicha burns votes from both blocs. Telem will get a pathetic showing (Ephraim Sneh style). Shelah will either join some union or quit before. So the biggest waste will probably come from the religious right again, and maybe one Arab party.

There seem to be four center-to-left parties close to the threshold: Meretz, Labour, Blue&White and The Israelis. Do you think that there will be mergers (e.g. Labour and The Israelis)? Do you think that some might not even run (e.g. Blue&White)? Do you think that all lists that eventually run will cross the threshold? What makes you sure that they will?

[jaymichaud]

Zalicha = round 1 Zehut = round 2/3 (I don't even remember now) Otzma. Empty balloon

Otzma got 20k votes in round 3, hardly substantial. Round 1 was the big waste in votes.

I think Zalicha burns votes from both blocs. Telem will get a pathetic showing (Ephraim Sneh style). Shelah will either join some union or quit before. So the biggest waste will probably come from the religious right again, and maybe one Arab party.

There seem to be four center-to-left parties close to the threshold: Meretz, Labour, Blue&White and The Israelis. Do you think that there will be mergers (e.g. Labour and The Israelis)? Do you think that some might not even run (e.g. Blue&White)? Do you think that all lists that eventually run will cross the threshold? What makes you sure that they will?

Labour and Israelim certainly, idk about Gantz though.

[Hnv1]

Zalicha = round 1 Zehut = round 2/3 (I don't even remember now) Otzma. Empty balloon

Otzma got 20k votes in round 3, hardly substantial. Round 1 was the big waste in votes.

I think Zalicha burns votes from both blocs. Telem will get a pathetic showing (Ephraim Sneh style). Shelah will either join some union or quit before. So the biggest waste will probably come from the religious right again, and maybe one Arab party.

There seem to be four center-to-left parties close to the threshold: Meretz, Labour, Blue&White and The Israelis. Do you think that there will be mergers (e.g. Labour and The Israelis)? Do you think that some might not even run (e.g. Blue&White)? Do you think that all lists that eventually run will cross the threshold? What makes you sure that they will?

Meretz aren't merging. Labour-Huldai will happen (probably with Shelah somewhere low). no one wants Gantz so I think he will run alone and will edge it in with 4 seats, enough boring people and servicemen that will vote for him.

I think all 3 lists will cross the threshold with pitiful tallies (4-5-4). 12-14 seats is a reasonable tally of their combined strength and there's no big party to do a "short squeeze" against Bibi in the end. Saar is too much to the right and too far behind Likud, everyone realizes that a coalition that will form will be without one dominant party.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I still need to kinda deal with the fact that Labour in recent polls have 5 seats.

[Coldstream]

Only 5(?) days till the lists have to be submitted. Aren’t potential mergers (Labour/Huldai/Shelah or some of the far right people) being left pretty late?

[danny]

Only 5(?) days till the lists have to be submitted. Aren’t potential mergers (Labour/Huldai/Shelah or some of the far right people) being left pretty late?

It's normal for these things to be left until the last day.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Avi Nissenkorn left the Israelis and decided to "take a break from politics". Pretty sure that:

[Hnv1]

I still need to kinda deal with the fact that Labour in recent polls have 5 seats.

Israelis love to procrastinate and then find a last minute solution no one really likes but everyone’s ok with. There’s no veil but lots of ignorance.


Noam (anti lgbtq) and Otzma are running together.

Labour primaries are today. 57 nobodies on 2 realistic places

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Reports of Labour's death were greatly exagorated?

[America Needs R'hllor]

I still need to kinda deal with the fact that Labour in recent polls have 5 seats.

Israelis love to procrastinate and then find a last minute solution no one really likes but everyone’s ok with. There’s no veil but lots of ignorance.


Noam (anti lgbtq) and Otzma are running together.

Labour primaries are today. 57 nobodies on 2 realistic places

The biggest names are fmr MK Omer Bar Lev, fmr MK Ram Shefa, fmr MK Nahman Shai and arguably Emily Moati and Gilad Kariv who are pretty big on leftist circles. My prediction is something like:
1. Michaeli
2. Bar Lev
3. Shefa
4. Moati (don't see a bigger woman than her running for the second spot in the top 4).

I hope Kariv can pass Shefa but that's just wishcasting.

Hnv- do you see the Israelis staying around at this point? I honestly don't see a point for Labour to merge with this list- Huldai will probably not stay around to be 2nd, and the rest of the list are even more nobodies than Labour's. I'd argue even Ya'alon recruited bigger names than Huldai. At least with Shelah it's just two people who can be placed in relatively low spots.

[Hnv1]

I still need to kinda deal with the fact that Labour in recent polls have 5 seats.

Israelis love to procrastinate and then find a last minute solution no one really likes but everyone’s ok with. There’s no veil but lots of ignorance.


Noam (anti lgbtq) and Otzma are running together.

Labour primaries are today. 57 nobodies on 2 realistic places

The biggest names are fmr MK Omer Bar Lev, fmr MK Ram Shefa, fmr MK Nahman Shai and arguably Emily Moati and Gilad Kariv who are pretty big on leftist circles. My prediction is something like:
1. Michaeli
2. Bar Lev
3. Shefa
4. Moati (don't see a bigger woman than her running for the second spot in the top 4).

I hope Kariv can pass Shefa but that's just wishcasting.

Hnv- do you see the Israelis staying around at this point? I honestly don't see a point for Labour to merge with this list- Huldai will probably not stay around to be 2nd, and the rest of the list are even more nobodies than Labour's. I'd argue even Ya'alon recruited bigger names than Huldai. At least with Shelah it's just two people who can be placed in relatively low spots.

my careful prediction is Lazimi will finish above Moati.

Hard to tell. I think Michaeli will him and Karin Nahun a spot just to push Eran Hermoni back and have another woman. I definitely think this is the end to vanity personal parties. Huldai did an IPO, the market didn't value his stock highly, he should have took labour instead of starting a new one

[America Needs R'hllor]

I still need to kinda deal with the fact that Labour in recent polls have 5 seats.

Israelis love to procrastinate and then find a last minute solution no one really likes but everyone’s ok with. There’s no veil but lots of ignorance.


Noam (anti lgbtq) and Otzma are running together.

Labour primaries are today. 57 nobodies on 2 realistic places

The biggest names are fmr MK Omer Bar Lev, fmr MK Ram Shefa, fmr MK Nahman Shai and arguably Emily Moati and Gilad Kariv who are pretty big on leftist circles. My prediction is something like:
1. Michaeli
2. Bar Lev
3. Shefa
4. Moati (don't see a bigger woman than her running for the second spot in the top 4).

I hope Kariv can pass Shefa but that's just wishcasting.

Hnv- do you see the Israelis staying around at this point? I honestly don't see a point for Labour to merge with this list- Huldai will probably not stay around to be 2nd, and the rest of the list are even more nobodies than Labour's. I'd argue even Ya'alon recruited bigger names than Huldai. At least with Shelah it's just two people who can be placed in relatively low spots.

my careful prediction is Lazimi will finish above Moati.

Hard to tell. I think Michaeli will him and Karin Nahun a spot just to push Eran Hermoni back and have another woman. I definitely think this is the end to vanity personal parties. Huldai did an IPO, the market didn't value his stock highly, he should have took labour instead of starting a new one

Pushing out Hermoni would be good. Idk why but he annoys me.
Also really hope Moati beats Lazimi.

[Estrella]

Reports of Labour's death were greatly exagorated?

yay, the former natural governing party might win 4% instead of 2%, THEY'RE BACK!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Reports of Labour's death were greatly exagorated?

yay, the former natural governing party might win 4% instead of 2%, THEY'RE BACK!

Labour is Isreali politics' best imitation of a zombie. Change my mind.

[Estrella]

Reports of Labour's death were greatly exagorated?

yay, the former natural governing party might win 4% instead of 2%, THEY'RE BACK!

Labour is Isreali politics' best imitation of a zombie. Change my mind.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Reports of Labour's death were greatly exagorated?

yay, the former natural governing party might win 4% instead of 2%, THEY'RE BACK!

Labour is Isreali politics' best imitation of a zombie. Change my mind.

I love this. Thank you.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Ya'alon dropped out! Hopefully Huldai, Shelah, Zalicha, Yatom and Gantz follow.