Israel General Elections || 23.03.2021

[LabourJersey]

If there's no working majority and calls for *another* election after this, there has to be major calls for electoral reform, right? Don't most Israelis consider this deadlock to be absurd at this point? At least something like raising the thresholds in the PR system or something.

[jaymichaud]

Don't really have much to say regarding the exit polls. I was expecting to have a meltdown but I think we're all just hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. Fingers crossed.

Smotrich's party should have never been allowed to run. Fascist bastards.

Yesh Atid did alright, a bit of an underperformance for me. I was hoping Lapid could at least do 20 but I speak too soon.

Labor went from polling at like 1% to winning 7 seats in just a few months? Their politics aren't mine, but Merav really did a good job. Parrotguy was right by saying that she could have probably gotten about 10 seats if Meretz and B&W were a bit more sturdy in the polls and didn't steal some tactical votes.

Meretz was a pleasant surprise.

B&W... whatever, I suppose? (Is there any chance of a reunification with Lapid now since we now know he isn't complete electoral poison or nah?)

LMAO at Joint List. I wonder who they'll inevitably blame for this.

YB, UTJ and Shas were predicable.

Abbas, Bennett and Sa'ar are the fools.

[Not Me, Us]

Why are there so many parties? In other parliamentary democracies, you end up with two major parties and a few smaller ones. Why is this different in Israel? It seems like there are just a bunch of small-medium sized parties + Likud.

[Oryxslayer]

LMAO at Joint List. I wonder who they'll inevitably blame for this.

well the JL list a good number of votes to the threshold with what appears to be a Ra'am suicide. Arab turnout also was noted to be weaker than in 2020, so theres another few voters. However, I suspect when we start seeing the votes from places like Nazareth and the Triangle we may see that other parties dug into their unified 2020 vote...

[Oryxslayer]

Why are there so many parties? In other parliamentary democracies, you end up with two major parties and a few smaller ones. Why is this different in Israel? It seems like there are just a bunch of small-medium sized parties + Likud.

Infinitesimal Factionalism. If you want to have your mind blown every one of these parties except maybe Yisrael Beitenu is either an umbrella organization/alliance for smaller parties and factions or a merger of several parties and factions - including Likud. I don't recommend it to anyone deeply familiar with Israeli politics, but there is a good primer for the uninformed that I wrote for DDHQ (which is itself a summery of the two that I wrote for the newsletter) up on their site right now that explains why this is a thing.

AKA: you put two Jews in a room you get 3 opinions but politics.

[DC Al Fine]

Why are there so many parties? In other parliamentary democracies, you end up with two major parties and a few smaller ones. Why is this different in Israel? It seems like there are just a bunch of small-medium sized parties + Likud.

Infinitesimal Factionalism. If you want to have your mind blown every one of these parties except maybe Yisrael Beitenu is either an umbrella organization/alliance for smaller parties and factions or a merger of several parties and factions - including Likud. I don't recommend it to anyone deeply familiar with Israeli politics, but there is a good primer for the uninformed thar I wrote for DDHQ up on their site right now that explains why this is a thing.

AKA: you put two Jews in a room you get 3 opinions but politics.

Link?

[jaymichaud]

Meretz hasn't had 7 seats or more since 1999. Damn

[LabourJersey]

Why are there so many parties? In other parliamentary democracies, you end up with two major parties and a few smaller ones. Why is this different in Israel? It seems like there are just a bunch of small-medium sized parties + Likud.

Infinitesimal Factionalism. If you want to have your mind blown every one of these parties except maybe Yisrael Beitenu is either an umbrella organization/alliance for smaller parties and factions or a merger of several parties and factions - including Likud. I don't recommend it to anyone deeply familiar with Israeli politics, but there is a good primer for the uninformed that I wrote for DDHQ (which is itself a summery of the two that I wrote for the newsletter) up on their site right now that explains why this is a thing.

AKA: you put two Jews in a room you get 3 opinions but politics.

Thanks for the article.

[Oryxslayer]

67.2% is the final projected turnout discounting double envelopes, which there may be more of this year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I thought you guys said the results were shocking?

I mean it does certainly look like a shockingly bad performance from Sa'ar.

[danny]

The channels have been updating their exit polls so now in the Channel 12 it's a 60-60 tie between the  Bibi coalition (including Yamina) and the anti Bibi parties. In a sign of how little we really know though in one exit poll Beitenu have 5 and in another they get 8, with differences like that everything is still up in the air.

[Umengus]

The channels have been updating their exit polls so now in the Channel 12 it's a 60-60 tie between the  Bibi coalition (including Yamina) and the anti Bibi parties. In a sign of how little we really know though in one exit poll Beitenu have 5 and in another they get 8, with differences like that everything is still up in the air.

no final result before friday I think...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

wait israel has another election today wtf lmao

[Storr]

wait israel has another election today wtf lmao

This was 100% unironically my reaction when reading the thread title.

[Oryxslayer]

Updated Channel 12 Numbers:

Likud: 31
Yesh Atid: 18
Joint List: 9
Shas: 8(-1)
Yamina: 8
B&W: 8(+1)
Labor: 7
Religious Zionists: 7
Meretz: 7(+1)
UTJ: 6
New Hope: 6
YiB: 5(-1)
Ra’am: 0

Yeah there's a lot of uncertainty with the data.

[GeorgiaModerate]

wait israel has another election today wtf lmao

Must be Tuesday.

[Vosem]

wait israel has another election today wtf lmao

If Channel 12's exit poll is correct, then Israel may well have just voted for "proceed to next try".

[Oryxslayer]

I thought you guys said the results were shocking?

I mean it does certainly look like a shockingly bad performance from Sa'ar.

If you want an example of stable polarization between factions, Sa'ar+B&W are basically equal to the number of Gantz MKs elected under B&W last time. Any variation is basically captured by YB and Yamina.

[libertpaulian]

So, when will the next election be?  Summer?  Fall?

[Vosem]

So, when will the next election be?  Summer?  Fall?

No complete count of this one until Friday. It's possible Bibi has won by the very skin of his teeth, though (in which case perhaps up to 4 years, though 2-3 may be likelier given personality conflicts among the parties that all "support" him). On the other hand, if Bibi has not won, then probably late summer they do it all over again...

[Not Me, Us]

Why are there so many parties? In other parliamentary democracies, you end up with two major parties and a few smaller ones. Why is this different in Israel? It seems like there are just a bunch of small-medium sized parties + Likud.

Infinitesimal Factionalism. If you want to have your mind blown every one of these parties except maybe Yisrael Beitenu is either an umbrella organization/alliance for smaller parties and factions or a merger of several parties and factions - including Likud. I don't recommend it to anyone deeply familiar with Israeli politics, but there is a good primer for the uninformed that I wrote for DDHQ (which is itself a summery of the two that I wrote for the newsletter) up on their site right now that explains why this is a thing.

AKA: you put two Jews in a room you get 3 opinions but politics.

As someone unfamiliar with Israeli politics, that article was super helpful.

[danny]

Channel 12 updated their exit poll again and now the anti Bibi parties are at 61.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Israeli politics is primarily driven by #banter.

[danny]

First 40K votes are in (obviously still unrepresentative).

[Cassius]

Israeli politics is primarily driven by #banter.

Gantz is certainly bringing the Bantz with this overperformance.