NC-SEN, 2022: The Beasley Resurrection?

[wbrocks67]

Axios partner Engagious/Schlesinger recently gathered 11 swing voters who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Eight of 11 saw a picture of Beasley and said they could name her, while only 4 of 11 said they could name Budd.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1571968288539942914

Wow, 11 people! So many! Totally a large enough sample size.

If it's more like 30 or 40 people, then I'll care. Besides, not all name recognition is good name recognition.

True, but given that 0 of them would vote for Budd, I imagine the name recog isn't bad for Beasley here.

[Schiff for Senate]

Axios partner Engagious/Schlesinger recently gathered 11 swing voters who voted for Trump in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Eight of 11 saw a picture of Beasley and said they could name her, while only 4 of 11 said they could name Budd.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1571968288539942914

Wow, 11 people! So many! Totally a large enough sample size.

If it's more like 30 or 40 people, then I'll care. Besides, not all name recognition is good name recognition.

True, but given that 0 of them would vote for Budd, I imagine the name recog isn't bad for Beasley here.

That is certainly good, but I hold that a sample size of 11 just isn’t large enough. Besides, Beasley will need more than just Biden voters - remember, Biden ultimately fell short of winning in NC.

[wbrocks67]

Senate Leadership Fund is dropping another $3.52M on this race. It was the top amount of money going to the 5-6 senate races.

I truly believe this one is close. GOP should not have to spending all this money here.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Senate Leadership Fund is dropping another $3.52M on this race. It was the top amount of money going to the 5-6 senate races.

I truly believe this one is close. GOP should not have to spending all this money here.

It could also be because this seat even if leans R right now would be seat number 52 for Dems and if Dems get to 52 seats Dems would likely be able to get a signfiicantly larger chunk of their agenda done, much of with the GOP would be very unhappy with.

[UncleSam]

Senate Leadership Fund is dropping another $3.52M on this race. It was the top amount of money going to the 5-6 senate races.

I truly believe this one is close. GOP should not have to spending all this money here.

It could also be because this seat even if leans R right now would be seat number 52 for Dems and if Dems get to 52 seats Dems would likely be able to get a signfiicantly larger chunk of their agenda done, much of with the GOP would be very unhappy with.

This. The GOP views this as the worst-case scenario fallback option. It makes sense to spend in NC even if the result is largely a foregone conclusion.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Actually OH is our 53 rd seat and NC is our 54 the Seat Ryan has been ahead in way more polls than Beasley and OH split its votes between Gov and Sen in 2018 there's gonna be upsets, OK Joy HOFMEISTER is 1 pt down and partisan trends don't matter that much in Midterms as DeWine, Sununu and Scott and Abbott can win while DeSantis, Ryan and Beasley and Demings win

Don't say they do matter because Trump wasn't on the ballot in 2018/2019 and we won OH and KY it's a 303 map but he advised Crist, Ryan, Beasley and Demingss are only 5 pts down

Just like all the Rs are bragging about Johnson being ahead 3/4 that's nothing for our GOTV in early vote Pat Ryan overcome an 8 pt deficit to beat Molinaro

We have a much better chance in FL impact showed Demings down 50/48 and Crist down 50/47 and BLK and Brown is 5/6 percent of the vote if you make an R nut map you won't be able to update it on EDay, Xing made GA Lean R and he was unable to change it after EDay for Runoff and he made one again

[wbrocks67]

Senate Leadership Fund is dropping another $3.52M on this race. It was the top amount of money going to the 5-6 senate races.

I truly believe this one is close. GOP should not have to spending all this money here.

It could also be because this seat even if leans R right now would be seat number 52 for Dems and if Dems get to 52 seats Dems would likely be able to get a signfiicantly larger chunk of their agenda done, much of with the GOP would be very unhappy with.

This. The GOP views this as the worst-case scenario fallback option. It makes sense to spend in NC even if the result is largely a foregone conclusion.

I feel like it could absolutely be a combo of both, sure. I just think the amount is so big (and could be going elsewhere) that it could be a fallback, but also seems to indicate that Budd is a terrible fundraiser and also needs the help.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Wow, an NC poll with both candidates over 45%. Unprecedented.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1572641694000246784?t=6ZhhS2eYg9m7sTud...

Okay, now I believe Beasley might have half a chance here.

[wbrocks67]

Continues the trend of Budd having rather unimpressive favorables (-8 here), which again, is unlike the Emerson poll that found him +10.

[Cape Verde]

Both of them seem like not-so-energetic candidates who would never create any interesting national story to cover.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am always optimistic about OH, NC and FL it's 17 percent Blk and Obama won NC in 2008 with Biden with Hagen, Demings, Ryan and BEASLEY are strong candidate

Obama and Biden lost NC in 2012)14 due to Bev Perdue she was unpopular not necessarily Kay Hagen

[wbrocks67]

McConnell drops *ANOTHER* $4 million in this race for Budd

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1574851925878505473

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Beginning to think Walker would have been the best choice.

[politicallefty]

As I've said before, Mitch McConnell is a lot of things, but stupid is not one of them. He's not throwing around money just because he likes to see it burn. I have to imagine the AK-Sen number is the price to keep Murkowski in the party (although ironically despite the fact that Democrats will inevitably be the ones to save her). NH-Sen is more puzzling to me. I wonder if he's hedging his bets on a particularly volatile NH electorate, which does happen from time to time.

[Vern]

Beginning to think Walker would have been the best choice.

That’s why I voted for him instead of Budd. I strongly dislike Budd. And I truly hope he loses, I don’t even care if it cost us the senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

NC and OH Sen was always gonna be close with the 303 map we lost the Senate race but won the NC GOV 2020 race and the reason why Biden lost FL and OH so big in 2020 there wasn't any Senate race in 2016 that was pre Pandemic

FL and TX we're always hard due to Abbott and DeSantis but that QU polls shows 53/46 in TX with black and Brown vote that is nothing for Beto to overcome we can unseat ABBOTT it would be a monumental upset but it's not impossible

[Devils30]

Dems should just go for this one...I know it's a longshot but Barnes is inspiring no confidence in WI as he comes from the Warren wing of the party.

[Pericles]

Dems should just go for this one...I know it's a longshot but Barnes is inspiring no confidence in WI as he comes from the Warren wing of the party.

Barnes is a decent likable guy imo and Ron Johnson has all sorts of baggage, Budd doesn't say anything more offensive than a normal Republican. Let alone that Wisconsin is a Biden state.

In any case, Democrats have enough money they can just go for both.

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Dems should just go for this one...I know it's a longshot but Barnes is inspiring no confidence in WI as he comes from the Warren wing of the party.

Yeah, we all know that Dems from the Warren wing don't play well in Wisconsin. Just ask the other US Senator from Wisconsin.

[wbrocks67]

Dems should just go for this one...I know it's a longshot but Barnes is inspiring no confidence in WI as he comes from the Warren wing of the party.

Barnes is a decent likable guy imo and Ron Johnson has all sorts of baggage, Budd doesn't say anything more offensive than a normal Republican. Let alone that Wisconsin is a Biden state.

In any case, Democrats have enough money they can just go for both.

Dems obv should cover what they need to cover to make sure incumbents are safe, but they could throw a little more money into WI (and NC) IMO

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Unlike in 2020, Republicans don't have an incumbent this year. Democrats have a shot.

[It’s so Joever]

This race has barely been nationalized like other races. If there is an anomaly this year NC could be a good candidate.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Unlike in 2020, Republicans don't have an incumbent this year. Democrats have a shot.

Also Beasley is objectively better than Cunningham though I'd also argue even though he isn't the incumbent, Budd has a bit more Charisma than someone like Tillis. Both Beasley and Budd seem to be running very serious campaigns and are aware of the traps their parties can often get stuck in and have been careful to avoid those. We've seen Budd avoiding a lot of the more controversial topics other GOP candidates have chosen to embrace, whereas Beasley is doing her best to paint Budd as the out of touch politician.

The main issue for Dems is overall this year seems to be less favorable, but at the same time southern states tend to be a bit under reactive to the national environment, plus if the turnout dynamics we've seen in special elections means anything, that would bode really well for Dems in NC so who knows. Comfortable Lean R for now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unlike in 2020, Republicans don't have an incumbent this year. Democrats have a shot.

Also Beasley is objectively better than Cunningham though I'd also argue even though he isn't the incumbent, Budd has a bit more Charisma than someone like Tillis. Both Beasley and Budd seem to be running very serious campaigns and are aware of the traps their parties can often get stuck in and have been careful to avoid those. We've seen Budd avoiding a lot of the more controversial topics other GOP candidates have chosen to embrace, whereas Beasley is doing her best to paint Budd as the out of touch politician.

The main issue for Dems is overall this year seems to be less favorable, but at the same time southern states tend to be a bit under reactive to the national environment, plus if the turnout dynamics we've seen in special elections means anything, that would bode really well for Dems in NC so who knows. Comfortable Lean R for now.

No it's not Lean R and you know it the last three polls have had it Tied or a 3 pt Budd lead just like Johnson whom is tied a PPP and 2 up in Data 4 Progress , you have AZ, PA and GA Lean R and  Cook and Sabato has them Lean D

[2016]

Democrats are not going to win here in a Midterm where President barely cracks 40 % in the State when it comes to his Job Approval.

I expect this Race to be put away by Republicans in the next couple of weeks.