PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Either way I personally blame the CIA stroke beams if he loses

[ProgressiveModerate]

I really don’t (at least no longer) buy that McCormick wouldn’t have done a few points better than Oz in a general election. While 'Romney lite' or 'hedge fund manager' or whatever would have been a problem, (a) a Mitt Romney clone would probably be winning this race against Fetterman if he somehow made it out of a three-way primary, (b) Club of Growth PAC Republican Pat Toomey had some of the same vulnerabilities and yet won the state back when it was considerably less Republican (even though Sestak put up an impressive fight in the final weeks of the campaign), and — most importantly — (c) McCormick wasn’t nearly as personally contemptible or even unrelatable as Oz, which is why the focus never would have been on McCormick the person as much as it is on Oz now. Every minute that is spent trying to turn Oz into a somewhat human, somewhat acceptable alternative to Fetterman is a minute lost in what should be a relentless nationalization of this race.

When you think about it, Oz really seems like the type of Republican candidate designed in a DSCC lab in order lose a competitive race. You couldn’t even include the 'killing puppies' part in a story line because it’d be torn apart as outrageously stereotypical while the crudité part would be judged completely over the top, yet this is Mehmet Oz.

I have a feeling that those 950 votes for Oz over McCormick were possibly the costliest and most consequential ones of the cycle. When you combine this with Sununu not running for NH-SEN, the SLF (foolishly) abandoning Masters in AZ-SEN, Vance/Ryan forcing Republican to divert resources from more competitive states, and Warnock benefiting from the runoff law & the presence of a Libertarian candidate in GA (like Ossoff in 2020), it’s honestly incredible how many lucky breaks Democrats have again had this cycle.

I'd rather have the Senate structurally biased in my favor than some good luck.

Honestly what's frustrating about the Senate is the past 3 years have been D-leaning years, and there have been several extremely low hanging fruits (WV, MT, OH) Republicans have screwed up on. And the Senate is still only 50-50, only because of 1000 votes in NH that gave Hassan the win there.

Sure, Democrats have had their screw ups too, but nothing that rises to *that* level of embarrassment, and most of their failures have been thing the national party couldn't have accounted for beforehand (see Cal Cunningham, though there was really a recuitment failure in general).

Realistically, the Senate as an institution is not going to be changing dramatically in any meaningful way so Democrats really need to find ways to connect with more rural voters (or at least win low population states like KS).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Something to watch if the polls start stabilizing for Fetterman this week. After a GOP advantage on the airwaves, Dems led the ad race pretty solidly the last 2 weeks.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1584666193121579008

Where's that total of $4 million in R-Gov spending coming from? Mastriano doesn't even have a fraction of that on hand. Are outside PACs and GOP groups actually blowing money on him? I thought they all pulled out months ago.

[wbrocks67]

Something to watch if the polls start stabilizing for Fetterman this week. After a GOP advantage on the airwaves, Dems led the ad race pretty solidly the last 2 weeks.

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1584666193121579008

Where's that total of $4 million in R-Gov spending coming from? Mastriano doesn't even have a fraction of that on hand. Are outside PACs and GOP groups actually blowing money on him? I thought they all pulled out months ago.

Mastriano had a little bit of money at the end of the last period (I think he had raised $1 or $2M) and I think some conservative PAC just gave him $500K recently)

[wbrocks67]

Mentally getting prepared for all the blue avatars to come in here tonight to say that Oz won the debate, it changed the trajectory of the race, and Oz win is now incoming.

Also prepared for the numerous clips on social media when John messes up like 1 word that are going to be made to prove he's "unable" to do the job.

[It’s so Joever]

TBH I highly doubt the debates will matter either way. I have been saying this consistently throughout, nobody cares about debates which are not presidential as long as they are not complete massacres. Unless either Oz or Fetterman get embarrassed to the point its pretty unanimous who won...nobody will care. The fundamentals are baked in already.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TBH I highly doubt the debates will matter either way. I have been saying this consistently throughout, nobody cares about debates which are not presidential as long as they are not complete massacres. Unless either Oz or Fetterman get embarrassed to the point its pretty unanimous who won...nobody will care. The fundamentals are baked in already.

It doesn't matter because Blks are solidify behind FETTERMAN Rs blocked Voting Rights that Jogger story has no prevalence over our vote and it's gonna be important in GA, NV, WI and OH too

There are blk votes in Philly and Pittsburgh the reason why Hillary lost was due to Erie County swung R in 2016 because of Pat Toomey Fetterman and Shapiro will win Erie like Biden

[Calthrina950]

Mentally getting prepared for all the blue avatars to come in here tonight to say that Oz won the debate, it changed the trajectory of the race, and Oz win is now incoming.

Also prepared for the numerous clips on social media when John messes up like 1 word that are going to be made to prove he's "unable" to do the job.

You are going to declare Fetterman the winner of the debate regardless of what happens. So long as Fetterman gets up on stage and doesn't keel over, he'll be seen as the winner. As for Herschel Walker, the expectations for John Fetterman going into tonight are low.

[US Politics Fanatic]

Fetterman is gross, he's wearing a hoodie and looks dirty. I'm not saying that if you're a democrat or a leftist, you shouldn't be voting for him for that reason but come on look at him and compare him to Dr Oz. At least, he's well-dressed and looks sophisticated.

Maybe I'm wrong but Fetterman's appearance will hurt him in the philly suburbs. Romney country club never trumper republicans especially who will vote for him will hold their nose while doing it.

[soundchaser]

Fetterman is gross, he's wearing a hoodie and looks dirty. I'm not saying that if you're a democrat or a leftist, you shouldn't be voting for him for that reason but come on look at him and compare him to Dr Oz. At least, he's well-dressed and looks sophisticated.

Maybe I'm wrong but Fetterman's appearance will hurt him in the philly suburbs. Romney country club never trumper republicans especially who will vote for him will hold their nose while doing it.

I seriously doubt he'll be in a hoodie tonight. Not that I think it *really* matters.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Fetterman is gross, he's wearing a hoodie and looks dirty. I'm not saying that if you're a democrat or a leftist, you shouldn't be voting for him for that reason but come on look at him and compare him to Dr Oz. At least, he's well-dressed and looks sophisticated.

Maybe I'm wrong but Fetterman's appearance will hurt him in the philly suburbs. Romney country club never trumper republicans especially who will vote for him will hold their nose while doing it.

I seriously doubt he'll be in a hoodie tonight. Not that I think it *really* matters.

I like hoodie Fetterman and I see how the hoodie works both ways. It gives him unique character and may make him feel more in touch while some will treat him as less serious.

Imagine if Fetterman wore a wifebeater lol

[Comrade Funk]

Fetterman is gross, he's wearing a hoodie and looks dirty. I'm not saying that if you're a democrat or a leftist, you shouldn't be voting for him for that reason but come on look at him and compare him to Dr Oz. At least, he's well-dressed and looks sophisticated.

Maybe I'm wrong but Fetterman's appearance will hurt him in the philly suburbs. Romney country club never trumper republicans especially who will vote for him will hold their nose while doing it.

You realize "Romney country club never trumpers" is a meme, right?

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

Fetterman is gross, he's wearing a hoodie and looks dirty. I'm not saying that if you're a democrat or a leftist, you shouldn't be voting for him for that reason but come on look at him and compare him to Dr Oz. At least, he's well-dressed and looks sophisticated.

Maybe I'm wrong but Fetterman's appearance will hurt him in the philly suburbs. Romney country club never trumper republicans especially who will vote for him will hold their nose while doing it.

Tell me you know nothing about Pennsylvania or our electorate without telling me you know nothing about Pennsylvania or our electorate.

[US Politics Fanatic]

Fetterman is gross, he's wearing a hoodie and looks dirty. I'm not saying that if you're a democrat or a leftist, you shouldn't be voting for him for that reason but come on look at him and compare him to Dr Oz. At least, he's well-dressed and looks sophisticated.

Maybe I'm wrong but Fetterman's appearance will hurt him in the philly suburbs. Romney country club never trumper republicans especially who will vote for him will hold their nose while doing it.

You realize "Romney country club never trumpers" is a meme, right?

No, it's the reality. Most of Romney voters who didn't vote for Trump are affluent suburbanites college educated whites in counties like Chester (PA), Orange (CA), Delaware (Ohio), Collin and Denton (TX), Maricopa (AZ), Cherokee (GA), Loudoun and Fairfax (VA), etc.

Fetterman is gross, he's wearing a hoodie and looks dirty. I'm not saying that if you're a democrat or a leftist, you shouldn't be voting for him for that reason but come on look at him and compare him to Dr Oz. At least, he's well-dressed and looks sophisticated.

Maybe I'm wrong but Fetterman's appearance will hurt him in the philly suburbs. Romney country club never trumper republicans especially who will vote for him will hold their nose while doing it.

Tell me you know nothing about Pennsylvania or our electorate without telling me you know nothing about Pennsylvania or our electorate.

It might play well in Scranton and Pittsburgh but not in Chester.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Fetterman is gross, he's wearing a hoodie and looks dirty. I'm not saying that if you're a democrat or a leftist, you shouldn't be voting for him for that reason but come on look at him and compare him to Dr Oz. At least, he's well-dressed and looks sophisticated.

Maybe I'm wrong but Fetterman's appearance will hurt him in the philly suburbs. Romney country club never trumper republicans especially who will vote for him will hold their nose while doing it.

Cry

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Fetterman is gross, he's wearing a hoodie and looks dirty. I'm not saying that if you're a democrat or a leftist, you shouldn't be voting for him for that reason but come on look at him and compare him to Dr Oz. At least, he's well-dressed and looks sophisticated.

Maybe I'm wrong but Fetterman's appearance will hurt him in the philly suburbs. Romney country club never trumper republicans especially who will vote for him will hold their nose while doing it.

You realize "Romney country club never trumpers" is a meme, right?

No, it's the reality. Most of Romney voters who didn't vote for Trump are affluent suburbanites college educated whites in counties like Chester (PA), Orange (CA), Delaware (Ohio), Collin and Denton (TX), Maricopa (AZ), Cherokee (GA), Loudoun and Fairfax (VA), etc.

Fetterman is gross, he's wearing a hoodie and looks dirty. I'm not saying that if you're a democrat or a leftist, you shouldn't be voting for him for that reason but come on look at him and compare him to Dr Oz. At least, he's well-dressed and looks sophisticated.

Maybe I'm wrong but Fetterman's appearance will hurt him in the philly suburbs. Romney country club never trumper republicans especially who will vote for him will hold their nose while doing it.

Tell me you know nothing about Pennsylvania or our electorate without telling me you know nothing about Pennsylvania or our electorate.

It might play well in Scranton and Pittsburgh but not in Chester.

Have you ever been to ChesCo? It's very different from its rural farm or '04 Bush voter days. 

[Comrade Funk]

There's a difference between a country club member and someone who lives in a suburb. Is this what Election Twitter does to someone's mind?

[If my soul was made of stone]

Fetterman is gross, he's wearing a hoodie and looks dirty. I'm not saying that if you're a democrat or a leftist, you shouldn't be voting for him for that reason but come on look at him and compare him to Dr Oz. At least, he's well-dressed and looks sophisticated.

Maybe I'm wrong but Fetterman's appearance will hurt him in the philly suburbs. Romney country club never trumper republicans especially who will vote for him will hold their nose while doing it.

Tell me you know nothing about Pennsylvania or our electorate without telling me you know nothing about Pennsylvania or our electorate.

A county Romney won by 500 votes with a small belt of post-industrial boroughs, a Black college town, and Mexican mushroom farmers = LITERALLY EVERYONE IS A MAIN LINE REALIGNER

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/mattgertz/status/1584971162614116352

[This user has not been convicted of 34 felonies]

It's pretty clear that these media outlets know they'll be able to drive more clicks by doing what they can to get Oz elected so they can criticize him later. I think it's a microcosm of how Trump was covered in 2016. For-profit news outlets are a cancer.

[wbrocks67]

I'm sorry, who does Fetterman have to "prove" he is fit to serve? He's been out on the campaign trail doing tons of events, talking to voters, doing interviews, etc. There is no more "proof" you need. The way the press has handled this has again been pretty disgraceful, and they've barely laid a finger on Oz this entire campaign.

In a normal campaign, you'd expect there to be a couple more profiles of the fact that this man still has double digit negative favorability going into Election Day and how that is impacting *his* campaign and yet.... crickets. It's always all about Fetterman.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/JuuustinBrown/status/1584901721980997632

So this is a parody but this is shockingly well-edited..

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Incredible.

[MillennialModerate]

So tonight is going to be a disaster are we all in agreement on that ?

[Ferguson97]

So tonight is going to be a disaster are we all in agreement on that ?

We just have to remember the MillennialModerate rule:

If Oz does well, Fetterman is toast and we're fools if we think otherwise.

If Fetterman does well, it doesn't matter because nobody pays attention to these things anyway.

No matter what happens, it will either change nothing or be good for Republicans.