PA-SN 2022 megathread: Shrek vs. The Wizard of Oz

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans really dropped the ball with candidate recruitment on this one. If they win, it will be because of the national environment and Fetterman's own weaknesses as a candidate.

It’s been a while since candidate recruitment for a party benefiting from a wave/very favorable midterm environment went this poorly — in fact, I don’t remember the last time this happened to this extent. If you had shown me the list of GOP candidates currently running (or not running) and competitive in/favored to win their respective primary contests in AZ/NH/PA/OH/etc. in, say, 2019, I would have been certain that 2022 was going to be another Trump midterm/Democratic wave.

Also, FTR, I think Barnette would be a stronger GE candidate than Oz or McCormick.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Republicans really dropped the ball with candidate recruitment on this one. If they win, it will be because of the national environment and Fetterman's own weaknesses as a candidate.

It’s been a while since candidate recruitment for a party benefiting from a wave/very favorable midterm environment went this poorly — in fact, I don’t remember the last time this happened to this extent. If you had shown me the list of GOP candidates currently running (or not running) and competitive in /favored to win their respective primary contests in AZ/NH/PA/OH/etc. in, say, 2019, I would have been certain that 2022 was going to be another Trump midterm/Democratic wave.

I agree. It's strange that there's barely any statewide office-holders or representatives running in the primaries this year. In fact most people running this year seem to currently not hold any office at all.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

This primary is a tossup. Oz just needs to get undecided voters to reluctantly vote for the Trump-endorsed candidate like in Ohio. The problem for him though is the high amount of unfavorables for him.

[jd7171]

For those that think Oz is going to win.......https://www.mediaite.com/politics/dr-oz-roundly-booed-at-pennsylvania-maga-rally-despite-trump-endorsement/. I have seen Zero visible support for him here in MAGA country. Lots of Bartos and Sands signs, some Barnette.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is inching closer in the Rassy polls not CNN to 50% he is at ,45/50 in a neutral cycle we will win WI/PA and GA and AZ for a 52/48,S

That's why Clyburn is stumping for Barnes in WI it's the ultimate swing states

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1522731198753263616

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/dr-oz-repeatedly-booed-crowd-232732624.html

FETTERMAN is favored in this race anyways

[Nyvin]

It was a Trump rally.  They probably want Barnette to win,  which would be fantastic.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Eh, seemed like 30% booing, 70% cheering.
What's more important imo is that Trump attacked McCormick really hard at the rally, which might dissuade undecideds from going for him.

[Vice President Christian Man]

Barnette should drop out and endorse Oz to prevent McCormack from being a spoiler. The senate does not need another McConnell.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Trump attacked McCormick really hard at the rally today. He said McCormick would be like Cheney/Romney/Kinzinger, said he is controlled by McConnell, said he's weak on China and said he's a "RINO liberal Wall Street insider". He also said "He’s not MAGA" and mocked him by saying "If anybody was within 200 miles of me, he hired them".

Trump never attacked Vance's opponents in Ohio like that, I wonder why he's going so hard after McCormick?

[Old Man Willow]

It would be better for Oz for Trump to simply cut a 30 second ad saying those things instead of at a rally.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

It would be better for Oz for Trump to simply cut a 30 second ad saying those things instead of at a rally.

I'm wondering whether Barnette can sneak out a victory with Oz and McCormick both destroying each other

[Suburbia]

If Barnette wins, it is possible, she can win in November.

Oz is a good political fit for New Jersey, where he belongs. Not everyone can pull a Hillary Clinton 2000, who won because she was a better candidate than Lazio.

Oz's political moderatism is good for the NJGOP....against Menendez in 2024 in a year where Trump will be on the ballot and he would hold Menendez down in Middlesex/Union/Camden counties.....

Barnette could be the first Black senator from PA---either her or Kenyatta.

Historic.

John Fetterman cannot be cocky either. He has to earn votes. Barnette can use the Fetterman jogger incident against him.

[Morning in Atlas]

Trump attacked McCormick really hard at the rally today. He said McCormick would be like Cheney/Romney/Kinzinger, said he is controlled by McConnell, said he's weak on China and said he's a "RINO liberal Wall Street insider". He also said "He’s not MAGA" and mocked him by saying "If anybody was within 200 miles of me, he hired them".

Trump never attacked Vance's opponents in Ohio like that, I wonder why he's going so hard after McCormick?

Excited for the race to see who the KHive's newest darling candidate will be.

[Thank you for being a friend...]

They'll probably win because its an "Inevitable Red Wave", but all of these PA Republican candidates truly suck.

Josh Shapiro and John Fetterman, c'mon fellas, let's score a rare victory in PA!!!

[wbrocks67]

What a lot of you are missing in all of this is that Barnette has no money. No ads running, less ground game.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

What a lot of you are missing in all of this is that Barnette has no money. No ads running, less ground game.

Idk man I see her signs everywhere. I get off 222 in Berks County going to work and there’s a ton of her signs right on the exit. Very reminiscent of Mastriano’s strategy—no TV, no radio, but a lot of in-person events courting the right base (crazies) and having them take home a yard sign. It’s an objectively genius strategy because it saves what little money they do have to be spent in actually boosting name rec and giving a feeling that they are winning. Signs are a good way to show other people that you must be popular.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

What a lot of you are missing in all of this is that Barnette has no money. No ads running, less ground game.

Idk man I see her signs everywhere. I get off 222 in Berks County going to work and there’s a ton of her signs right on the exit. Very reminiscent of Mastriano’s strategy—no TV, no radio, but a lot of in-person events courting the right base (crazies) and having them take home a yard sign. It’s an objectively genius strategy because it saves what little money they do have to be spent in actually boosting name rec and giving a feeling that they are winning. Signs are a good way to show other people that you must be popular.

I think Barnette has a very good shot at winning this primary (which would be a blow to Republicans since she is a very bad candidate for the general), since Oz and McCormick are destroying each other's credibility.
I also think there's a very real chance McCormick gets 3rd place. A Trump endorsement guarantees anyone 30% in a primary imo and Barnette seems to be getting most of the anti-Oz/grassroots MAGA vote. Oz and Barnette have room to grow, but I don't see how McCormick can grow his support. He's already spent almost double everyone else combined and still only gets 16% in polls. He's not running as a moderate so it will be difficult to get the moderate vote, yet he was viciously attacked by Trump at the rally and a lot of the attacks on him seem to have stuck.

[zoz]

Oz got booed early on, but by the time Trump actually got on stage everyone was cheering for him (or at least not booing)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They'll probably win because its an "Inevitable Red Wave", but all of these PA Republican candidates truly suck.

Josh Shapiro and John Fetterman, c'mon fellas, let's score a rare victory in PA!!!

Lol even in Red wave yr 2014 we won PA by 9 pts and that yr we lost WI, MI and IL we're gonna win PA the question will another seat flip WI has incumbent, OH has Tea Partier Vance, Franken is only 3 pts behind Grassley and Grietans is scandalous


It's not an automatic red wave yr because we only had 92M votes in 2010/2014 we have with VBM 110/150M, eventhough Biden is on par with Obama in Approvals

[wbrocks67]

What a lot of you are missing in all of this is that Barnette has no money. No ads running, less ground game.

Idk man I see her signs everywhere. I get off 222 in Berks County going to work and there’s a ton of her signs right on the exit. Very reminiscent of Mastriano’s strategy—no TV, no radio, but a lot of in-person events courting the right base (crazies) and having them take home a yard sign. It’s an objectively genius strategy because it saves what little money they do have to be spent in actually boosting name rec and giving a feeling that they are winning. Signs are a good way to show other people that you must be popular.

Mastriano has tons of TV ads running though, not sure what you're seeing.

And just because there is a bunch of signs doesn't mean much. All around my area in Montco there is nothing but Rick Saccone and Charlie Gerow signs, and I've seen Lou Barletta signs popping up all over I-76. Doesn't mean a whole lot especially given Gerow of all people is DOA and so is Barletta according to the polls. Saccone may be too, but the only thing I wonder is if he has a tiny name ID edge over the rest of the field

[ProgressiveModerate]

I feel like Barlette could've had so much more potential as a GE candidate if she didn't go full crazy post-2020. Her 2020 campaign for PA-04 was reasonable considering she was a sacrificial lamb anyways, but just listening to her debate she seems to be banking on the fact enough full MAGAs will come to the polls in November and outvote everyone else (Which is a real possiblity, but generally you want to expad your coalition in a swing state).

[Arizona Iced Tea]

What counties will Lamb win in the primary?

[wbrocks67]

I feel like Barlette could've had so much more potential as a GE candidate if she didn't go full crazy post-2020. Her 2020 campaign for PA-04 was reasonable considering she was a sacrificial lamb anyways, but just listening to her debate she seems to be banking on the fact enough full MAGAs will come to the polls in November and outvote everyone else (Which is a real possiblity, but generally you want to expad your coalition in a swing state).

Yep. In 2020, people didn't see her as extremist and she didn't really have much baggage because she was such an unknown. Fast forward 2 years and she's an extremist insurrectionist so...