Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[jamestroll]

I hope non swing voter returns.

but in seriousness, I think VA kind of heart breaks both parties. The democrats thinking it will be a hard progressive state, and the republicans who think it will vote like the 90s without Trump in office have all been proven wrong

[Person Man]

Apparently Joe Szymanski has access to some internals. It would be interesting to see what they say.

https://twitter.com/JosephSzymanski/status/1703188787658903575

Wonder what it could be

[Person Man]

I hope non swing voter returns.

but in seriousness, I think VA kind of heart breaks both parties. The democrats thinking it will be a hard progressive state, and the republicans who think it will vote like the 90s without Trump in office have all been proven wrong

It could go like Florida if Democrats have zero charisma with nonwhites or like Maryland if they do better with kids and vets. It will probably be like New Hampshire, Maine, New Mexico, or Minnesota.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Actually, yeah, whether you like that or not. This absolutely would (and should) be a major discussion in such a case, and not without good reason.

The leader for your party is a reality show star. So I don't know if this is a discussion you really want to have.

[Aurelius2]

Actually, yeah, whether you like that or not. This absolutely would (and should) be a major discussion in such a case, and not without good reason.

The leader for your party is a reality show star. So I don't know if this is a discussion you really want to have.

And that fact has been a continuous discussion for 8 years. I'm not the one trying to shut that down.

[DaleCooper]

It goes both ways. This could be what it takes to make her lose so it obviously matters, but the fact that she can still win in spite of it is a sign of where our politics are at.

[Person Man]

It goes both ways. This could be what it takes to make her lose so it obviously matters, but the fact that she can still win in spite of it is a sign of where our politics are at.

With everything else going on, and even then, this shouldn’t matter.

[Skill and Chance]

It goes both ways. This could be what it takes to make her lose so it obviously matters, but the fact that she can still win in spite of it is a sign of where our politics are at.

With everything else going on, and even then, this shouldn’t matter.

Exposing yourself to hotel employees would truly be disqualifying IMO if that part is confirmed.

[Person Man]

It goes both ways. This could be what it takes to make her lose so it obviously matters, but the fact that she can still win in spite of it is a sign of where our politics are at.

With everything else going on, and even then, this shouldn’t matter.

Exposing yourself to hotel employees would truly be disqualifying IMO if that part is confirmed.

Agree but it’s been 3 days and nothing.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/virginia-democrat-who-raised-money-by-selling-sex-acts-could-be-charged-with-prostitution-lawyers-say
Seems like the GOP operator was basically doing media bait on liberal publications. He could have given it to say the dailywire first but seems he gave it to the AP who not only refused to report it but actually tipped Gibson off.  Seems the WaPo did decide to report it.

Lawyers probably nixed it. Don't know why WaPo decided to run the story

Because the Washington Post has a shred of journalistic ethics.  If the AP sat on this, it really calls their credibility as a news source into question.

I don't think you understand what journalistic ethics are. It's not to report on every single story that is given to you or report stories about candidates to try and influence voters. It's not the job of newspapers to do opposition research and media campaigns for Republicans. No laws were broken.

This was a major story that raises extremely serious questions about a candidate’s judgement, integrity, values, and basic fitness for office. It is absolutely news and respectfully, it’s pretty clear that you only care about journalistic ethics when it’s a story that would make a Republican look bad.  

LOL absolutely not. This was two consenting adults who are married to each other. If you disagree with their "integrity and values" then this is a whole different issue that you are clearly projecting onto. This is like saying a porn star or sex worker can't run for office because they theres questions about their "basic fitness" for office and their "values"? No. This isn't 1925.

Yes, and?  Rightly or wrongly, the vast majority of Americans share my position on this sort of stuff.  Most people would have serious concerns about the values and basic fitness for office of a sex worker or porn star who tried to enter politics and you’re only fooling yourself if you try to pretend otherwise.  And you can’t even dismiss it as “something something two consenting adults” when she engaged in sexual harassment against a non-consenting third party as well.  

No offense, but the idea that we shouldn’t seriously question the judgement of anyone who is running for office despite broadcasting sex tapes of themself online is laughable.  This woman clearly lacks the basic common sense and decision-making abilities to be entrusted with public office.  

You can talk about it not being 1925 all you want and a lot has changed, but you’re either letting partisanship cloud your objectivity here or you’re simply wildly out of touch with most Americans on this sort of stuff.  

[free my dawg]

Personally I wish Susana good luck in this third leg of the race.

[wbrocks67]

It goes both ways. This could be what it takes to make her lose so it obviously matters, but the fact that she can still win in spite of it is a sign of where our politics are at.

With everything else going on, and even then, this shouldn’t matter.

Exposing yourself to hotel employees would truly be disqualifying IMO if that part is confirmed.

Agree but it’s been 3 days and nothing.

Huh- I am shocked I tell you - shocked to hear that it seems likely Daily Wire of all places made something up!

[Skill and Chance]

Given that SD-24 looks more promising for Dems than expected, I'm also intrigued by SD-27.  It's also college town attached to Lean R outer suburbs that were Safe R before Trump.  On paper, it was only Biden +6, but it surprisingly voted D+2 in the 2022 congressional elections, which were only D+3 statewide, so could be very Dem trending.  By comparison, SD-24 only voted D+1 in 2022. The Dem candidate has a compelling background seems unusually moderate for this era, but there is apparently a pro-choice independent running which makes it harder for him.

[Ragnaroni]

I love Youngkin, he's the kind of Republican I want running the country! He's the perfect in-between between old GOP and the MAGA wing.

Wish he gets that trifecta!

[kwabbit]

Seems like things are shifting the Democratic direction here. I think the possibility that the result mirrors special elections and the Democrats win comfortable majorities is quite high. Even the best indicators for the GOP don't suggest that they will be winning Biden +~10 seats in the suburbs. A special election in that type of seat would yield a Dem+20 result looking at the results of other specials.

Perhaps the added voters going from low to moderate turnout are extremely GOP and the VA legislative elections can end up in a sweet spot, but that doesn't seem likely.

[Person Man]

Seems like things are shifting the Democratic direction here. I think the possibility that the result mirrors special elections and the Democrats win comfortable majorities is quite high. Even the best indicators for the GOP don't suggest that they will be winning Biden +~10 seats in the suburbs. A special election in that type of seat would yield a Dem+20 result looking at the results of other specials.

Perhaps the added voters going from low to moderate turnout are extremely GOP and the VA legislative elections can end up in a sweet spot, but that doesn't seem likely.

Where would that put us if we were looking at the Democrats landed between Hillary and Biden or slightly better than Biden?

[Ferguson97]

Yes, and?  Rightly or wrongly, the vast majority of Americans share my position on this sort of stuff.  Most people would have serious concerns about the values and basic fitness for office of a sex worker or porn star who tried to enter politics and you’re only fooling yourself if you try to pretend otherwise.  And you can’t even dismiss it as “something something two consenting adults” when she engaged in sexual harassment against a non-consenting third party as well.  

No offense, but the idea that we shouldn’t seriously question the judgement of anyone who is running for office despite broadcasting sex tapes of themself online is laughable.  This woman clearly lacks the basic common sense and decision-making abilities to be entrusted with public office.  

You can talk about it not being 1925 all you want and a lot has changed, but you’re either letting partisanship cloud your objectivity here or you’re simply wildly out of touch with most Americans on this sort of stuff.  

If she actually exposed herself to a hotel employee, that’s an entirely different issue, and would be disqualifying. However, this detail hasn’t been substantiated by a credible source.

You can’t just say “most people agree with me” and call it a day. This forum is supposed to be more sophisticated than the lizard brain of the median voter.

Why do you view her posting the videos as disqualifying? Why do you view it as a demonstration of lack of judgement on her part? There’s nothing morally wrong with doing consensual sex work.

[Skill and Chance]

Seems like things are shifting the Democratic direction here. I think the possibility that the result mirrors special elections and the Democrats win comfortable majorities is quite high. Even the best indicators for the GOP don't suggest that they will be winning Biden +~10 seats in the suburbs. A special election in that type of seat would yield a Dem+20 result looking at the results of other specials.

Perhaps the added voters going from low to moderate turnout are extremely GOP and the VA legislative elections can end up in a sweet spot, but that doesn't seem likely.

Where would that put us if we were looking at the Democrats landed between Hillary and Biden or slightly better than Biden?

Matching Hillary would be 23D/17R in the state senate, but in practice there is a very R trending Hillary 2016 seat and very D trending Trump 2016 seat, so they probably lose the former and win the latter.  Slightly exceeding Biden everywhere would get them to 26D/14R (this would involve winning Trump +1 and Trump +2 open seat districts that are pretty rural).

In the HoD, matching Hillary would result in a narrow Dem majority, but I don't have exact numbers.  Think 53D/47R or something.  Slightly exceeding Biden would almost surely yield a Dem supermajority in the HoD as there are a ton of Lean R districts.

The deciding seat for a Dem supermajority in the state senate would be Trump +6 2020, but it was also Youngkin +15 in 2021 and R+9 in 2022 and the crazy R incumbent already lost to a normal person in the primary, so that seems totally out of reach.

[Person Man]

Seems like things are shifting the Democratic direction here. I think the possibility that the result mirrors special elections and the Democrats win comfortable majorities is quite high. Even the best indicators for the GOP don't suggest that they will be winning Biden +~10 seats in the suburbs. A special election in that type of seat would yield a Dem+20 result looking at the results of other specials.

Perhaps the added voters going from low to moderate turnout are extremely GOP and the VA legislative elections can end up in a sweet spot, but that doesn't seem likely.

Where would that put us if we were looking at the Democrats landed between Hillary and Biden or slightly better than Biden?

Matching Hillary would be 23D/17R in the state senate, but in practice there is a very R trending Hillary 2016 seat and very D trending Trump 2016 seat, so they probably lose the former and win the latter.  Slightly exceeding Biden everywhere would get them to 26D/14R (this would involve winning Trump +1 and Trump +2 open seat districts that are pretty rural).

In the HoD, matching Hillary would result in a narrow Dem majority, but I don't have exact numbers.  Think 53D/47R or something.  Slightly exceeding Biden would almost surely yield a Dem supermajority in the HoD as there are a ton of Lean R districts.

The deciding seat for a Dem supermajority in the state senate would be Trump +6 2020, but it was also Youngkin +15 in 2021 and R+9 in 2022 and the crazy R incumbent already lost to a normal person in the primary, so that seems totally out of reach.

I could this election being an accurate snapshot of what would happen if this was 2024 but the environment would likely be different by then.

[Skill and Chance]

Seems like things are shifting the Democratic direction here. I think the possibility that the result mirrors special elections and the Democrats win comfortable majorities is quite high. Even the best indicators for the GOP don't suggest that they will be winning Biden +~10 seats in the suburbs. A special election in that type of seat would yield a Dem+20 result looking at the results of other specials.

Perhaps the added voters going from low to moderate turnout are extremely GOP and the VA legislative elections can end up in a sweet spot, but that doesn't seem likely.

Where would that put us if we were looking at the Democrats landed between Hillary and Biden or slightly better than Biden?

Matching Hillary would be 23D/17R in the state senate, but in practice there is a very R trending Hillary 2016 seat and very D trending Trump 2016 seat, so they probably lose the former and win the latter.  Slightly exceeding Biden everywhere would get them to 26D/14R (this would involve winning Trump +1 and Trump +2 open seat districts that are pretty rural).

In the HoD, matching Hillary would result in a narrow Dem majority, but I don't have exact numbers.  Think 53D/47R or something.  Slightly exceeding Biden would almost surely yield a Dem supermajority in the HoD as there are a ton of Lean R districts.

The deciding seat for a Dem supermajority in the state senate would be Trump +6 2020, but it was also Youngkin +15 in 2021 and R+9 in 2022 and the crazy R incumbent already lost to a normal person in the primary, so that seems totally out of reach.

I could this election being an accurate snapshot of what would happen if this was 2024 but the environment would likely be different by then.

Disagree on that part.  If this scenario actually played out, a big part of the reason would be that low turnout now benefits Dems (especially in very college+ states).  Of the different election years, I would expect modern Dems to do worst with presidential level turnout going forward, everywhere except the Deep South. 

[Person Man]

Seems like things are shifting the Democratic direction here. I think the possibility that the result mirrors special elections and the Democrats win comfortable majorities is quite high. Even the best indicators for the GOP don't suggest that they will be winning Biden +~10 seats in the suburbs. A special election in that type of seat would yield a Dem+20 result looking at the results of other specials.

Perhaps the added voters going from low to moderate turnout are extremely GOP and the VA legislative elections can end up in a sweet spot, but that doesn't seem likely.

Where would that put us if we were looking at the Democrats landed between Hillary and Biden or slightly better than Biden?

Matching Hillary would be 23D/17R in the state senate, but in practice there is a very R trending Hillary 2016 seat and very D trending Trump 2016 seat, so they probably lose the former and win the latter.  Slightly exceeding Biden everywhere would get them to 26D/14R (this would involve winning Trump +1 and Trump +2 open seat districts that are pretty rural).

In the HoD, matching Hillary would result in a narrow Dem majority, but I don't have exact numbers.  Think 53D/47R or something.  Slightly exceeding Biden would almost surely yield a Dem supermajority in the HoD as there are a ton of Lean R districts.

The deciding seat for a Dem supermajority in the state senate would be Trump +6 2020, but it was also Youngkin +15 in 2021 and R+9 in 2022 and the crazy R incumbent already lost to a normal person in the primary, so that seems totally out of reach.

I could this election being an accurate snapshot of what would happen if this was 2024 but the environment would likely be different by then.

Disagree on that part.  If this scenario actually played out, a big part of the reason would be that low turnout now benefits Dems (especially in very college+ states).  Of the different election years, I would expect modern Dems to do worst with presidential level turnout going forward, everywhere except the Deep South. 

That’s really hard to wrap a head around going forward

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Yes, and?  Rightly or wrongly, the vast majority of Americans share my position on this sort of stuff.  Most people would have serious concerns about the values and basic fitness for office of a sex worker or porn star who tried to enter politics and you’re only fooling yourself if you try to pretend otherwise.  And you can’t even dismiss it as “something something two consenting adults” when she engaged in sexual harassment against a non-consenting third party as well.  

No offense, but the idea that we shouldn’t seriously question the judgement of anyone who is running for office despite broadcasting sex tapes of themself online is laughable.  This woman clearly lacks the basic common sense and decision-making abilities to be entrusted with public office.  

You can talk about it not being 1925 all you want and a lot has changed, but you’re either letting partisanship cloud your objectivity here or you’re simply wildly out of touch with most Americans on this sort of stuff.  

If she actually exposed herself to a hotel employee, that’s an entirely different issue, and would be disqualifying. However, this detail hasn’t been substantiated by a credible source.

You can’t just say “most people agree with me” and call it a day. This forum is supposed to be more sophisticated than the lizard brain of the median voter.

Why do you view her posting the videos as disqualifying? Why do you view it as a demonstration of lack of judgement on her part? There’s nothing morally wrong with doing consensual sex work.

In terms of the political ramifications, it’s absolutely fine to point out that most folks agree with me and call it a day.  And given where most folks are on such issues, anyone who runs for office despite having made and distributed a sex tape clearly has disqualifying levels of bad judgement.  Frankly, it suggests that she’s a delusional idiot who makes stupid decisions and has a profound lack of even the most basic level of common sense.  There are already too many delusional morons in office.  The last thing we need in elected office is someone too stupid to know that you shouldn’t run for office if there’s porn of you floating around somewhere.  I mean, Jesus f***ing Christ, how is this even a conversation?  

As for consensual sex work, someone who engages in that sort of behavior not out of genuine necessity or to survive, but simply because they see it as an acceptable way to make some extra cash clearly doesn’t share my values.  I don’t want sex work to be normalized.  Pornography is protected by the First Amendment, but it is still a deeply immoral and reprehensible thing.  Banning porn is unconstitutional and generally a silly idea in the internet age, but that doesn’t mean it’s a good thing.  I realize this is probably an unpopular position on Atlas given that more than a few posters here likely rely on porn as a pale substitute for actually having sex, but folks who make or distribute pornography are pariahs for good reason.  

Moreover, porn and sex work are not legitimate careers or acceptable ways to make money.  While I think the laws on this need to be reformed to stop excessively victimizing sex workers, the goal is still to keep sex work illegal.  And whether you like it or not, the vast majority of voters in the district will see this as a serious issue, including those who vote for her out of pure partisanship.

[Gass3268]

VA GOP better hope the government doesn't shutdown.

About this...

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1704668884706431454?s=20

[Virginiá]

As for consensual sex work, someone who engages in that sort of behavior not out of genuine necessity or to survive, but simply because they see it as an acceptable way to make some extra cash clearly doesn’t share my values.

To be fair, it really seems like they made sex tapes because they are horny and kinky AF, not for the money. This was a high-income married couple. Whatever they made on Chaturbate was most definitely pocket change compared to their incomes.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I agree that consensual sex work is just another job and not any sort of disqualifying scandal, but that of course doesn't mean that candidates won't be judged by their choice of job just like they would for being a prosecutor, a hedge fund manager, etc.