Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[wbrocks67]

When is Trafalgar releasing their poll?

Quinnipiac and Trafalgar MONDAY

Possibly one last Monmouth as well

[wbrocks67]

If Youngkin wins, we need to take a hard look at this
https://twitter.com/TrumpJew2/status/1454803073931563011?s=20

I mean to be fair, many of these are issues that Republicans traditionally do well on anyway. "Inflation" is funny as if anyone has an easy solution for that.

Also "getting things done" does not apply to VA really, since VA Dems/Northam have actually gotten, objectively, a LOT of sh**t done the past 4 years

[BigSerg]

If Youngkin wins, we need to take a hard look at this
https://twitter.com/TrumpJew2/status/1454803073931563011?s=20

I mean to be fair, many of these are issues that Republicans traditionally do well on anyway. "Inflation" is funny as if anyone has an easy solution for that.

Also "getting things done" does not apply to VA really, since VA Dems/Northam have actually gotten, objectively, a LOT of sh**t done the past 4 years

But, if there really are Biden 2020 -Youngkin 2021 voters, this will be very interesting.

[Brittain33]

It's remarkable how much easier it is to go through this cycle the third time around (after 1994 and 2010).

[BigSerg]

Oh yeah baby! NBC is ready! NBC really is saying there's gonna be a massive Election Day vote (R or D?)
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2021-elections/virginia-governor-results

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/DCtraveljunkie/status/1454818433732861955?s=20

[wbrocks67]

If Youngkin wins, we need to take a hard look at this
https://twitter.com/TrumpJew2/status/1454803073931563011?s=20

I mean to be fair, many of these are issues that Republicans traditionally do well on anyway. "Inflation" is funny as if anyone has an easy solution for that.

Also "getting things done" does not apply to VA really, since VA Dems/Northam have actually gotten, objectively, a LOT of sh**t done the past 4 years

But, if there really are Biden 2020 -Youngkin 2021 voters, this will be very interesting.

True

And what's more interesting about the NBC poll is that Bidens RV approval is -7, but Dems still lead the GCB +2, even more than the +1 they got in August. So there's still considerable amount of voters who 'disapprove' of Biden while still voting D

[compucomp]

In a tight Virginia race, Covid concerns still make campaigning difficult for Democrats

While Republicans more or less kept up their normal ground game throughout the pandemic, Democrats last year halted all in-person operations for months during the height of the presidential campaign.

Even now, in Virginia's critical gubernatorial race, some progressives say they're still having a difficult time getting people to volunteer in person, though vaccines have helped ease concerns.

“We have noticed a lot more people eager to help, but not necessarily eager to knock on doors. It's been tough,” said Maya Castillo, the political director for New Virginia Majority, which organizes communities of color.

Is the excuse making already starting for a McAuliffe loss? My views on the virus and pandemic are pretty well known here but even I think this is a very poor excuse. The local Democratic party can buy N95 masks and give them out to the canvassers, plus tell them to back up from the door. Canvassing would also be considered a public-facing job so they could even get a booster shot. Combine these and canvassers are quite safe from COVID-19. The pandemic is no longer a valid reason to avoid in-person canvassing and if Dems do so it is unilateral disarmament. 

[Matty]

If Youngkin wins, we need to take a hard look at this
https://twitter.com/TrumpJew2/status/1454803073931563011?s=20

I mean to be fair, many of these are issues that Republicans traditionally do well on anyway. "Inflation" is funny as if anyone has an easy solution for that.

Also "getting things done" does not apply to VA really, since VA Dems/Northam have actually gotten, objectively, a LOT of sh**t done the past 4 years

But, if there really are Biden 2020 -Youngkin 2021 voters, this will be very interesting.

True

And what's more interesting about the NBC poll is that Bidens RV approval is -7, but Dems still lead the GCB +2, even more than the +1 they got in August. So there's still considerable amount of voters who 'disapprove' of Biden while still voting D

NBC GCB has been way off in previous midterm cycles

Biden at 42-45% approval in nov 2022 means a midterm wipeout for dems

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/DCtraveljunkie/status/1454818433732861955?s=20

Whitest area in Arlington has highest turnout
Next !.

[LabourJersey]

In a tight Virginia race, Covid concerns still make campaigning difficult for Democrats

While Republicans more or less kept up their normal ground game throughout the pandemic, Democrats last year halted all in-person operations for months during the height of the presidential campaign.

Even now, in Virginia's critical gubernatorial race, some progressives say they're still having a difficult time getting people to volunteer in person, though vaccines have helped ease concerns.

“We have noticed a lot more people eager to help, but not necessarily eager to knock on doors. It's been tough,” said Maya Castillo, the political director for New Virginia Majority, which organizes communities of color.

Is the excuse making already starting for a McAuliffe loss? My views on the virus and pandemic are pretty well known here but even I think this is a very poor excuse. The local Democratic party can buy N95 masks and give them out to the canvassers, plus tell them to back up from the door. Canvassing would also be considered a public-facing job so they could even get a booster shot. Combine these and canvassers are quite safe from COVID-19. The pandemic is no longer a valid reason to avoid in-person canvassing and if Dems do so it is unilateral disarmament. 

A huge component of canvassing involves reaching people who aren't easily accessible to online/digital communication, specifically older people. Many young people (the main canvassers) are still a little hesitant about reaching out to old people because of the still-existing risks, and older liberals in particular are really quite hesitant still.

Obviously this is a bad thing since it fundamentally hurts the Democrat's abilities to reach out to its base, but I don't know if telling everyone "suck it up, it's fine" is a good move, especially since McAuliffe is running on a partial platform that Youngkin doesn't care about public health.

[wbrocks67]

TargetSmart still appears to be a day behind, but their latest estimate is Dems with a +22 lead right now from early vote/VBM.

Dems 544K (53%)
Reps 321K (31%)
Unaffiliated 163K (16%)
= 1.03M

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2021?state=VA

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/DCtraveljunkie/status/1454818433732861955?s=20

Whitest area in Arlington has highest turnout
Next !.

Hahaha see libsharts! The highest turnout is in this very slightly less blue precinct! Get wrecked!

[compucomp]

In a tight Virginia race, Covid concerns still make campaigning difficult for Democrats

While Republicans more or less kept up their normal ground game throughout the pandemic, Democrats last year halted all in-person operations for months during the height of the presidential campaign.

Even now, in Virginia's critical gubernatorial race, some progressives say they're still having a difficult time getting people to volunteer in person, though vaccines have helped ease concerns.

“We have noticed a lot more people eager to help, but not necessarily eager to knock on doors. It's been tough,” said Maya Castillo, the political director for New Virginia Majority, which organizes communities of color.

Is the excuse making already starting for a McAuliffe loss? My views on the virus and pandemic are pretty well known here but even I think this is a very poor excuse. The local Democratic party can buy N95 masks and give them out to the canvassers, plus tell them to back up from the door. Canvassing would also be considered a public-facing job so they could even get a booster shot. Combine these and canvassers are quite safe from COVID-19. The pandemic is no longer a valid reason to avoid in-person canvassing and if Dems do so it is unilateral disarmament. 

A huge component of canvassing involves reaching people who aren't easily accessible to online/digital communication, specifically older people. Many young people (the main canvassers) are still a little hesitant about reaching out to old people because of the still-existing risks, and older liberals in particular are really quite hesitant still.

Obviously this is a bad thing since it fundamentally hurts the Democrat's abilities to reach out to its base, but I don't know if telling everyone "suck it up, it's fine" is a good move, especially since McAuliffe is running on a partial platform that Youngkin doesn't care about public health.

I understand why they are hesitant, but if the Democratic party supplies them with N95 masks, which are plentiful now, and the canvassing job gives them the right to get booster shots, which preliminary data indicates could restore sterilizing immunity, then it's not really telling them to suck it up, but instead protecting them to a great degree.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/DCtraveljunkie/status/1454818433732861955?s=20

Whitest area in Arlington has highest turnout
Next !.

Hahaha see libsharts! The highest turnout is in this very slightly less blue precinct! Get wrecked!

Hmm ok looking at it. We can look at a more urban "white progressive" precinct called Garfield Park. It is 75% white compared to 1 2 and 3 hovering around 81%. This only has comparable 17% turnout.
https://data-dashboard.arlingtonva.us/voter-turnout

[BigSerg]

NBC is saying there's gonna be a massive Election Day vote, estimating 1.9 million or so. I think Youngkin could end up winning if Election Day turnout is high enough.
https://twitter.com/PollsandOdds/status/1454833198282727430?s=20

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/DCtraveljunkie/status/1454818433732861955?s=20

Whitest area in Arlington has highest turnout
Next !.

LOL, and its still an extremely lib area.  This is pure desperation that wasn't worthy of being posted here in the first place.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/DCtraveljunkie/status/1454818433732861955?s=20

Whitest area in Arlington has highest turnout
Next !.

Hahaha see libsharts! The highest turnout is in this very slightly less blue precinct! Get wrecked!

Probably the most desperate talking point this whole cycle.  The GOP is upset that the "enthusiasm gap" they keep whining about isn't coming to fruition.  This is CA Recall 2.0.

[Devils30]

Turnout at around 3 million would be basically the same % of 2020 as 2017 was of 2016. If Dems lose it's hard to blame this one on turnout.

This model is also interesting:

https://rpubs.com/thorongil16/803187

I'm not sure rural counties like Brunswick, Greensville and Sussex have such a huge GOP swing. All 3 are at least 54% black and very inelastic from looking at historic elections.

[Matty]

Youngkin’s final ad is about raising teacher pay and ending grocery taxes

I come on here and see NSV claim youngkin is the most dangerous gubernatorial candidate in history

It’s beyond laughable

[lfromnj]

Youngkin’s final ad is about raising teacher pay and ending grocery taxes

I come on here and see NSV claim youngkin is the most dangerous gubernatorial candidate in history

It’s beyond laughable

This is incredibly dangerous

Endorsing T-mac

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/merica/status/1454500921606553601

[Senator Incitatus]

McAuliffe went on television today and apparently-falsely suggested he has experience raising a public school student in Virginia:

https://twitter.com/DeAngelisCorey/status/1454822367658659840?s=20

[It’s so Joever]

It's remarkable how much easier it is to go through this cycle the third time around (after 1994 and 2010).

This is my first, any advice on how to handle the incoming bloodbath?

[Brittain33]

It's remarkable how much easier it is to go through this cycle the third time around (after 1994 and 2010).

This is my first, any advice on how to handle the incoming bloodbath?

Accept that there's nothing you as an individual can shape the outcome, you are not responsible for it, it does no good to feel guilty. This cycle is driven by human nature. I find that reciting the Serenity Prayer helps.

Consider that after each midterm bloodbath, the incumbent defined a new identity as the underdog and rode it to victory in reelection.

Also consider that redistricting will have already happened so Dems will lock in some favorable maps for a later comeback this decade unlike 2010.

Take comfort from the fact that Republicans are still in relative decline to Democrats (the opposite of 1994, and unclear in 2010) and if Youngkin wins it's because he's running as a moderate to win over moderates. The big picture hasn't changed.

Look at margins in past Virginia governors' races. This is a state Democrats should never take for granted. It does not have a high floor of Democrats who are always Democrats. In any past election, taking this as a gimme for Dems would have been inconceivable. We've gotten complacent.

And maybe I'll be surprised and TMac wins, but he's not behaving like someone who expects to win.