Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[pbrower2a]

IDB/TIPP

approve; 44%
Disapprove; 40%

Link: https://www.investors.com/politics/president-joe-biden-job-approval-stabilizes-but-not-among-this-group-ibd-tipp-poll/

Last month was 44/43.

P.S. It's "IBD" for Investor's Business Daily.

It's the level of disapproval that kills a candidacy for re-election. I look at the 40% disapproval and recognize that President Biden is in better political shape than when America withdrew from Afghanistan.

44% is a danger zone for Prez, because it's the exact where Prez loses H of Reps, every Prez since Eisenhower have lost seats in H of Rep per Gallup at 44%

But, Biden is trying to pass a 4 T stimulus bill on Health care and Mcconnell just rejected Biden on raising the Debt Ceiling on 51 not 60 votes

I am not saying that Biden won't recover, D's knew 10 wks that Rs weren't gonna help D's with Debt Ceiling and D's like Bernie and Warren kept saying McConnell was bluffing, they're not that crazy, yes he is


They went on a mnth vacation without doing anything on VR or Debt Ceiling

The real danger comes from disapproval numbers. It is possible to raise approval numbers with campaigning. To undo disapproval is difficult. The reality that caused the disapproval is typically must reverse to cut into the disapproval.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Let's wait and see how Biden and D's climb out of this jar he has with Debt Ceiling, and let's wait until after VA Gov Election to say that D's are out of the woods in losing the House next year

If there are any delays in SSA and military pay, they got until Oct 24th that's when checks start going out for November,  to pass a Debt Ceiling that gives D's plenty of time to put Debt Ceiling increase thruu Reconciliation but they have to specify how much they must raise Debt Ceiling to, they should say 34.5T the cost of their 3.5T package, which is 5.5T with interest and it gives them til Dec 2022

T Mac is only 3 pts ahead well within margin of error.

They can default a wi but that's it

Many Depts are furloughed employees elready

Transportation, Student Loan Officer, used to be a career job now that isn't a viable career path

Since the infrastructure debate we haven't seen Pete Buttigieg whom is Secretary of Transportation and they are laying off employees, he was lame anyways

[Torie]

In other news, the percentage of voters who think both parties suck seems to be increasing. And no, I was not polled myself.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/575312-majorities-again-view-both-parties-unfavorably-gallup

[Mr.Phips]

In other news, the percentage of voters who think both parties suck seems to be increasing. And no, I was not polled myself.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/575312-majorities-again-view-both-parties-unfavorably-gallup

This has been the case for years now and hasn’t mattered in elections at all.  The party holding the White House has had a wave against their party in every midterm since 2006.

[Sir Mohamed]

In other news, the percentage of voters who think both parties suck seems to be increasing. And no, I was not polled myself.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/575312-majorities-again-view-both-parties-unfavorably-gallup

Here's my honest take on that: 2 viable political parties are just not enough to depict the entire political spectrum of a country as large and diverse as America. You always have too many people who actually don't belong in the same party. That's why I'm increasingly in favor of switching to a parliamentary system with 4-5 political parties. Our current system has outlived itsself and needs a complete overhaul.

[Mr.Phips]

In other news, the percentage of voters who think both parties suck seems to be increasing. And no, I was not polled myself.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/575312-majorities-again-view-both-parties-unfavorably-gallup

Here's my honest take on that: 2 viable political parties are just not enough to depict the entire political spectrum of a country as large and diverse as America. You always have too many people who actually don't belong in the same party. That's why I'm increasingly in favor of switching to a parliamentary system with 4-5 political parties. Our current system has outlived itsself and needs a complete overhaul.

Agreed.  Our current system may have worked at one time, but does not anymore.  A structure that favors having only two parties just leads to each party doing nothing but try to make the other party look bad.

[Torie]

Assume that 45% of the voters are MAGA types, and 45% are Bernie Sanders socialists, and 10% are centrists. 100% of the voters would prefer that centrists be in power rather than the 45% cohort that they are not a part of. What voting system would elect what 100% of the voters agree is the least bad alternative to their cohort being in power? It seems to me that there is no good way to get there, other than perhaps a German proportional parliamentary system if one gets past a 5% threshold. And then there would probably be a minority government of one cohort or the other. And that won't work unless the power of the executive branch is watered down.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's waited til last minute after Rs have them 10 wks notice to raise the Debt Ceiling, thru Reconciliation, the D's dared the Rs, Bernie said Rs aren't that crazy, to make the US Default, if something happens and the SSA checks are delayed D's are gonna pay a price like Pence said at polls that's why I haven't donated anymore to Ds since the failed Afghanistan withdrawal

Oct 18th is 9 days away and still no deal if we default, TMac will lose he is only up 3

Biden gave an empty speech to Mcconnell, Boehner got Budget caps in 2011/13 in exchange for raising Debt Ceiling

Rs get nothing if they agree to raise the Debt Ceiling and lose in 2022/ with a 4T spending bill and Medicare Expansion doesn't take effect til 2028

[Progressive Pessimist]

In other news, the percentage of voters who think both parties suck seems to be increasing. And no, I was not polled myself.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/575312-majorities-again-view-both-parties-unfavorably-gallup

Here's my honest take on that: 2 viable political parties are just not enough to depict the entire political spectrum of a country as large and diverse as America. You always have too many people who actually don't belong in the same party. That's why I'm increasingly in favor of switching to a parliamentary system with 4-5 political parties. Our current system has outlived itsself and needs a complete overhaul.

At the same time though, I can't see Americans tolerating the backroom deals like those that go on in parliamentary systems to determine legislative majorities when more than two parties are involved. It would be a real "careful what you wished for" situation that would probably just cause a different type of cynicism. So we're f***ed no matter what.

[pbrower2a]

Assume that 45% of the voters are MAGA types, and 45% are Bernie Sanders socialists, and 10% are centrists. 100% of the voters would prefer that centrists be in power rather than the 45% cohort that they are not a part of. What voting system would elect what 100% of the voters agree is the least bad alternative to their cohort being in power? It seems to me that there is no good way to get there, other than perhaps a German proportional parliamentary system if one gets past a 5% threshold. And then there would probably be a minority government of one cohort or the other. And that won't work unless the power of the executive branch is watered down.

The German system still ended up with Satan Incarnate, but later than a first-past-the-post system like ours would have done had we had a Klan figure (make no mistake; the Nazis learned some of their political techniques from the Klan) who got 47% of the vote with the others split the vote 45-8. Yes, the Second Klan would have been that bad with some horrific "Kloncentration Klamps".

The problem is that our system has polarized so severely. This said, Bernie Sanders would be an elder statesman of the Social Democratic Party if he were a German pol, and Donald Trump would be with the Alternative für Deutschland, Of course comparisons between contemporary America and the Weimar Republic should not make similar assumptions of the dynamic realities of of political orders with different heritage and circumstances.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Oct. 3-5, 1500 adults including 1261 RV


Adults:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 48 (-1)

Strongly approve 20 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 37 (nc)


RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-2)

Strongly approve 23 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-1)

[MR DARK BRANDON]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Oct. 3-5, 1500 adults including 1261 RV


Adults:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 48 (-1)

Strongly approve 20 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 37 (nc)


RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-2)

Strongly approve 23 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-1)

Seems as if it is rebounding

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Oct. 3-5, 1500 adults including 1261 RV


Adults:

Approve 42 (+2)
Disapprove 48 (-1)

Strongly approve 20 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 37 (nc)


RV:

Approve 44 (+1)
Disapprove 49 (-2)

Strongly approve 23 (+4)
Strongly disapprove 39 (-1)

Seems as if it is rebounding

COVID cases are going down

[Sir Mohamed]

Assume that 45% of the voters are MAGA types, and 45% are Bernie Sanders socialists, and 10% are centrists. 100% of the voters would prefer that centrists be in power rather than the 45% cohort that they are not a part of. What voting system would elect what 100% of the voters agree is the least bad alternative to their cohort being in power? It seems to me that there is no good way to get there, other than perhaps a German proportional parliamentary system if one gets past a 5% threshold. And then there would probably be a minority government of one cohort or the other. And that won't work unless the power of the executive branch is watered down.

I don't think 45% of the electorate are all staunch MAGA cultists. If 2020 was a parliamentary election with 5 viable parties, it would have most likely looked like this:

Liberal Party (center-left, leader: Joe Biden): 32%
America First Party (right-wing, leader: Donald Trump): 25%
Social Democratic Party (left-wing, leader: Bernie Sanders): 20%
Republican Party (center-right, leader: Rob Portman): 14%
Moderate Party (center, leader: Charlie Baker): 6%

Govt: Liberal-Social Dem coalition (PM: Joe Biden; Deputy PM: Bernie Sanders). Govt gets a lot of reforms passed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, pbower2A it looks like we are headed for default, Manchin says he will block any attempts to change FILLIBUSTER and that means NO VR TOO.

The Treasury can still send out Military and SSA payments and military pay for November until Congress reaches deal on Reconciliation but more than a month will get hard, that's just a scare tactic to say SSA and military won't get paid


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/manchin-rejects-altering-filibuster-rule-155454447.html

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Qtrash has Biden at 38

[Matty]

Qtrash (which should have folded up shop and left for good after 2020 whiff) has Biden at 38-53

QTRASH

[BG-NY]

38 is unbelievable, probably as much of an outlier as a poll showing Biden in the high 40s. It's been obvious for a while Biden has settled into the 41-45 zone for approvals.

[wbrocks67]

If it wasn't obvious by now that Q-Pac is running the other way after being too pro-Dem in 2020, then it clearly is now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

They won't even give us state by state numbers but Approvals but pbower2A hasnt been on the 2024/Prez page disputing that Trump is definitely gonna lose, so he must believe some of these numbers

[MR DARK BRANDON]

38 is unbelievable, probably as much of an outlier as a poll showing Biden in the high 40s. It's been obvious for a while Biden has settled into the 41-45 zone for approvals.

Biden is more between 45-50 it’s a few outliers like these that make it seem lower cause remember these 2-3 polls can bring average down by A LOT

[Matty]

Something that makes no sense

Biden’s ratings among indies in every poll have been AWFUL. Like -15 to -20 awful

Yet he consistently polls at only -3 or -4

How is that possible?

[Bootes Void]

Something that makes no sense

Biden’s ratings among indies in every poll have been AWFUL. Like -15 to -20 awful

Yet he consistently polls at only -3 or -4

How is that possible?

Historically there is far more democrats vs republicans

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Something that makes no sense

Biden’s ratings among indies in every poll have been AWFUL. Like -15 to -20 awful

Yet he consistently polls at only -3 or -4

How is that possible?

Historically there is far more democrats vs republicans

.
He knows that Biden Agenda is STALLED IN CONGRESS AND THE CAMPAIGN DOESN'T BEGIN UNTIL AUG 2022, we still in 2021/ we didn't win 33H seats in 2017/ we won them on ads and campaigning in Aug 2018


Rs still think we won 33H seats in 2017/ not 2018 so they can hold onto their belief that we're gonna lose, LOL WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME RS WON, 2016/ BENGHAZI HILLARY AND WE LANDSLIDED YOU GUYS IN CALIFORNIA


News flash we were only supposed to in 2017/ net 10seats by Roll Call in 2017 it expanded to 33H seats at the end of 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If we win OH, PA, NC, FL and WI and GA which is possible, I will be donating next yr when I have more money, Rs don't have a monopoly on those states Biden and Obama won them in 2008/2012 with Biden on Ballot, we lower the Fillibuster threshold to automatic 55(45 and DC and PR Statehood

Rs have to accept it they can't do a thing about it
We thought we had Monopoly too until 2016, every Election states changes we haven't had identical maps in two straight elections

Demings and Ryan are 4 pts behind well within margin of error