Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Here's an article that says Whitmer not Evers can be defeated, some think Evers is too old to be Gov and he is just as old as Johnson


https://www.yahoo.com/news/gops-post-trump-future-muddle-083044776.html


Rs can also steal OR while D's can win OH, MD, MA and FL Gov states don't have to vote same way in Gov Elections as they do Prez races

Craig and James can tap into Afro Americans, but the odds are 50/50 for Rs take over in MI and OR and NH, they re not safe D

[Progressive Pessimist]

2022 will be a pro-incumbent midterm. 2020 was the worst election to lose in a generation.

Whoever won was going to be credited with Covid fading away, and would be governing over a booming, recovering economy.

Democrats are almost certain to hold the Senate and are narrowly favored to hold the House imo.

The republicans are a party of losers, and without being able to blame somebody as polarizing as Obama (even if he was more qualified to hold the office than Biden), they can't win elections like 2010 and 2014. Republicans need higher turnout now anyway, with their coalition moving away from the suburbs and the upper middle class. Low turnout elections aren't their forte - they need to focus on improving access to in-person early voting, to mitigate the democrats' advantage in vbm.

Republicans should focus on limiting damage for 2022 and hope to turn the tide in 2024.

In a functional country that doesn't constantly reflect patterns, this would be true. But historical precedent really might be all the GOP needs to pull off some sort of victory in 2022. Even 2020 counts as historical precedent repeating itself. Every incumbent President who the economy collapsed under, oversaw a major domestic crisis, or both has lost. Trump defied many expectations throughout his tenure, but he couldn't overcome that or the 2018 results. As such, I fail to see how Biden can overcome them either.

2002 was a break from the trend. Although 2002 saw Bush with approvals in the 60s and a decent economy. However, if Biden remains popular and the economy remains good, Dems have a chance of holding both chambers.

Relying too heavily on past election results won't always make for a prediction come true.

Also, imo, a lot of the seats making up Dems current slim majority are trending in their favor, so I struggle to see more than like 10 seats that will flip in 2022. Of course thats enough to flip the chamber, but it's not enough to guarantee a flip in chamber control.

Redistricting is a real wild card here. I don't think Democrats will end up drawn out as badly as last decade, but they could still be disadvantaged enough to make a difference.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problem with Rs is that they are known now that they associate themselves with Right Militia Groups, in 2016, 18, 20 they weren't associated that much with them, that's why Rs overperformed in 2016, 20

Females, Afro Americans and Latinos aren't gonna go for Trumpians again, even if they are disadvantaged in TX in Redistricting.

FL can be a silver lining because the Voter Suppression isnt that big as in TX

The worst case scenario is we lost 5-10 seats in FL and TX not 20 and we can make up for it in CA, NY, and IL, IA, MI and NC

Cali, up to six Rs can be Redistricted out, that's why Rs targeted Cali for Recall which they wont get

D's have more targets than Rs and a blue wave isn't out of the question

But, we need a Gubernatorial nominee in TX Beto or McCounghey to hold off R gains, just like Crist winning can hold off R gains in FL

[Donald Wilders]

If Joe is at 48% approval in Economist YouGov then he is probably lower than 48% national approval because last 2020 Economist YouGov poll said something like 53% Joe 41% Donald or something like that. It is quite possible Joe would easily do a a couple points worse in a rematch against Donald if the election were coming soon.

[CookieDamage]

If Joe is at 48% approval in Economist YouGov then he is probably lower than 48% national approval because last 2020 Economist YouGov poll said something like 53% Joe 41% Donald or something like that. It is quite possible Joe would easily do a a couple points worse in a rematch against Donald if the election were coming soon.

Literally every other poll has Biden in the low to mid 50s lmao

[pbrower2a]

2022 will be a pro-incumbent midterm. 2020 was the worst election to lose in a generation.

Whoever won was going to be credited with Covid fading away, and would be governing over a booming, recovering economy.

Democrats are almost certain to hold the Senate and are narrowly favored to hold the House imo.

The republicans are a party of losers, and without being able to blame somebody as polarizing as Obama (even if he was more qualified to hold the office than Biden), they can't win elections like 2010 and 2014. Republicans need higher turnout now anyway, with their coalition moving away from the suburbs and the upper middle class. Low turnout elections aren't their forte - they need to focus on improving access to in-person early voting, to mitigate the democrats' advantage in vbm.

Republicans should focus on limiting damage for 2022 and hope to turn the tide in 2024.

In a functional country that doesn't constantly reflect patterns, this would be true. But historical precedent really might be all the GOP needs to pull off some sort of victory in 2022. Even 2020 counts as historical precedent repeating itself. Every incumbent President who the economy collapsed under, oversaw a major domestic crisis, or both has lost. Trump defied many expectations throughout his tenure, but he couldn't overcome that or the 2018 results. As such, I fail to see how Biden can overcome them either.

2002 was a break from the trend. Although 2002 saw Bush with approvals in the 60s and a decent economy. However, if Biden remains popular and the economy remains good, Dems have a chance of holding both chambers.

Relying too heavily on past election results won't always make for a prediction come true.

Also, imo, a lot of the seats making up Dems current slim majority are trending in their favor, so I struggle to see more than like 10 seats that will flip in 2022. Of course thats enough to flip the chamber, but it's not enough to guarantee a flip in chamber control.

Redistricting is a real wild card here. I don't think Democrats will end up drawn out as badly as last decade, but they could still be disadvantaged enough to make a difference.

Most gerrymandering that serves one side tends to put extremists in moderate districts... but eventually the extremists become unpopular and lose.   

[Bomster]

Thus far it seems like the GOP is having a hard time coalescing around anything, the way that they did in 2009 under the auspices of the Tea Party. We will see if inflation turns out to be a medium to long term problem, as that could help the GOP come back in the midterms. But otherwise they may be too divided to make the major gains they did in 2010.

Hatred of democrats is all they need to stay in line. Hatred of Trump worked wonders in keeping the Democratic base, from Bernie to Manchin, happy.

[Donald Wilders]

If Joe is at 48% approval in Economist YouGov then he is probably lower than 48% national approval because last 2020 Economist YouGov poll said something like 53% Joe 41% Donald or something like that. It is quite possible Joe would easily do a a couple points worse in a rematch against Donald if the election were coming soon.

Literally every other poll has Biden in the low to mid 50s lmao

Literally every other poll can be even more biased for Dems, your point has been debunked

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why are we looking that closely to polls, the only time that opposition picks up seats is when Prez Approvalls per Gallup's is at 45 percent, VlBiden is nowhere near that. Obama, and Trump both had 45 percent Approvals due to Elevated Unemployment 11 percent in 2010 and UNPOPULARITY of OBAMACARE and Trump was being impeached for Ukraine

The last Generic ballot had Rs down 9, D's can hold the H based on how many Rs get Redistricted out of Cali to offset losses in TX and IL and NY can offset losses in FL, the Rs aren't gaining 20 seats in TX and FL Redistricting, more like 5/10, get real, more like 5 out of TX only

Senate, Rs are in deep trouble in IA, OH, FL, NC, WI and PA the open seats, Ryan and Jackson didn't run to loose, and Josh Mandel did so poorly in 2012 against Brown, Rs act like OH isn't a R 9 states it's an R plus 20, it's not it has 12 percent Afro Americans and Brown has won every race, and Ryan is blue dog that came out against a 7/6  Crt due to LGBT issues, and so have Kelly and Jackson, but didn't rule out a 6/5 Crt making Roberts once again swing vote😄😄😄

[GeorgiaModerate]

ARG economic survey (monthly), June 17-20, 1100 adults including 990 RV

Adults:

Approve 52 (-5)
Disapprove 43 (+6)

RV:

Approve 52 (-5)
Disapprove 43 (+6)


ETA: Here's something unexpected -- ARG and Rasmussen have the same Biden approval number today (although Ras has a higher disapproval; they're at 52/46).

[Sir Mohamed]

No reason to panic, though I wonder where the rise of disapprovals are coming from? Biden didn't do something very controversial in recent days and weeks. Perhaps this is people becoming impatient with some stuff to get done; though they need to realize that this is fully on the GOP and Manchin/Sinema.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No reason to panic, though I wonder where the rise of disapprovals are coming from? Biden didn't do something very controversial in recent days and weeks. Perhaps this is people becoming impatient with some stuff to get done; though they need to realize that this is fully on the GOP and Manchin/Sinema.

His disapprovals are riding because we are still in a Pandemic, the Election is 500 days from now ANYWAYS

[Sir Mohamed]

No reason to panic, though I wonder where the rise of disapprovals are coming from? Biden didn't do something very controversial in recent days and weeks. Perhaps this is people becoming impatient with some stuff to get done; though they need to realize that this is fully on the GOP and Manchin/Sinema.

His disapprovals are riding because we are still in a Pandemic, the Election is 500 days from now ANYWAYS

Nah, the pandemic is the issue Biden gets his highest approvals on.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No reason to panic, though I wonder where the rise of disapprovals are coming from? Biden didn't do something very controversial in recent days and weeks. Perhaps this is people becoming impatient with some stuff to get done; though they need to realize that this is fully on the GOP and Manchin/Sinema.

His disapprovals are riding because we are still in a Pandemic, the Election is 500 days from now ANYWAYS

Nah, the pandemic is the issue Biden gets his highest approvals on.

Southern voters, in the South disapprove of Biden handling of the Pandemic not in the North I take them see You Gov polls all the time and it's Southern votes except for GA


Biden said he was gonna Eradicate not tampt Covid, there are limits what the Feds can do in Covid

I disapprove of Biden handling of Covid, Biden said we weren't gonna be in masks, we still are in mask's

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We haven't had 2 identical maps, midterms or Prez 2 cycles in a row that's why I say it's good news for D's, the 304 EC map isn't enshired in the Constitution, I have a good feeling about Charlie Crist and FL, that is a must win for us D's, because it's the first battleground state up, Crist is a great candidate 😄😄😄

[pbrower2a]

No reason to panic, though I wonder where the rise of disapprovals are coming from? Biden didn't do something very controversial in recent days and weeks. Perhaps this is people becoming impatient with some stuff to get done; though they need to realize that this is fully on the GOP and Manchin/Sinema.

His disapprovals are riding because we are still in a Pandemic, the Election is 500 days from now ANYWAYS

Nah, the pandemic is the issue Biden gets his highest approvals on.

Southern voters, in the South disapprove of Biden handling of the Pandemic not in the North I take them see You Gov polls all the time and it's Southern votes except for GA


Biden said he was gonna Eradicate not tampt Covid, there are limits what the Feds can do in Covid

I disapprove of Biden handling of Covid, Biden said we weren't gonna be in masks, we still are in mask's

The Feds can't drag people out of bed in the middle of the night to some clinic in which they get inoculated.

I wonder what the states can do. Can they mandate that people getting Medicaid or Food Aid get inoculated? Can people on unemployment be required to get inoculated? It would make good economic sense involving people who might be low-information people.

If people did the right thing, then we would have inoculation of 80% or more of eligible adults by now, and COVID-19 would be on a death spiral instead of still killing. The big problem remains: it's impossible to fix pervasive, resolute stupidity.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Homeless people on SKID ROW and many homeless shelters say they won't take the vaccines, but Healthy people are the ones getting vaccinated that's always been the case. Just like TB and Hepatitis, we have shots for Hepatitis, but not for Class C, but AB

As long as there is Homeless people there is gonna be COVID

I was a Security Guard and Hospitals and we always had to take all of these shots to Protect us from Homeless people.

As long as Homeless people are out there, as I have stated many things mes, you're not gonna get rid of Covid

Where does Section 8 vouchers go to, immigrants that both D's and Rs have given to, the more Dreamers you have the more you qualify for Section 8, not just renting an apartment but renting houses

Section 8 doesn't qualify you if you have 0 or 1 dependent, that's why Reparations would help

Even when you turn 55, apartments still ranges for 800/1000

[pbrower2a]

Homeless people on SKID ROW and many homeless shelters say they won't take the vaccines, but Healthy people are the ones getting vaccinated that's always been the case. Just like TB and Hepatitis, we have shots for Hepatitis, but not for Class C, but AB

As long as there is Homeless people there is gonna be COVID

I was a Security Guard and Hospitals and we always had to take all of these shots to Protect us from Homeless people.

As long as Homeless people are out there, as I have stated many things mes, you're not gonna get rid of Covid

Where does Section 8 vouchers go to, immigrants that both D's and Rs have given to, the more Dreamers you have the more you qualify for Section 8, not just renting an apartment but renting houses

Section 8 doesn't qualify you if you have 0 or 1 dependent, that's why Reparations would help

Even when you turn 55, apartments still ranges for 800/1000

The homeless may be a part of the population most vulnerable. Many have low intelligence and/or psychiatric problems, so they may be unable to make decisions on whether to get shots for COVID-19. My guess is that their lives really are nasty, short, and brutish. Alcoholism? Lots of alcoholics are able to hold jobs and have some sort of housing. Many have been treated badly by others -- families, public schools, employers, and the criminal justice system, so it is hard to see what level of trust they could have in any institution.

[Virginiá]

Worth noting again that June-July is when Obama's highest approvals at the beginning of his presidency began to fall. I think the idea that presidents no longer enjoyed a honeymoon is likely wrong, and Trump was just so unusually off-putting to a solid majority of the electorate that he didn't get one. That didn't mean another president wouldn't get a small bump, though, polarization notwithstanding.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's also worth nothing this won't be a typical Midterm, we are still in a Pandemic, every Election as long as the Pandemic is still around won't be a typical Election

We are still in masks, but both parties are derelict in Eradication of Covid, Deregulation with Trump didn't work and there are limits what Big Govt can do with Covid

But, if the country elects Rs, they are gonna have the same problem with Covid as D's, there isn't much Govt can do and passing Stimulus checks already ran out

But, Electing Deregulation, R H doesn't do anything, because if Deregulation worked in a Pandemic, with tax cuts for Rich, Trump will still be Prez

[Devils30]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/06/22/iowa-poll-joe-biden-approval-rating-kamala-harris-covid-immigration/7736797002/

Biden's numbers about the same in Iowa as he got in the election. Dems will be better investing in Alaska in the future instead of winning IA back.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Election is not 180 days from now check back in July of 2022 waves don't develop a yr prior to the Election 😄😄😄

If this was October of 2022, I would be very worried 😄😄😄

Please don't pay attention to wave insurance seats 500 days from an Election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are targeting IA for a reason, there are 4 Congressional districts that can be won back that we lost in 2020, just like we can win back 4 Cali seats we lost to offset losses in TX in case HR 1 doesn't pass

Rs can get up to 10 seats in TX and FL not 20 and Cali, IA 4 seats each will offset those losses

Ras Smith is a Great candidate for Gov and can pull MAUBAUER over the finish line over Grassley 64% want Grassley to retire. I am donating to Smitty, Man and Ryan.  Mandel and Renacci already lost to Brown in 2012/2018

It's wave insurance and Biden will endorse candidates next yr which will help

[SnowLabrador]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/06/22/iowa-poll-joe-biden-approval-rating-kamala-harris-covid-immigration/7736797002/

Biden's numbers about the same in Iowa as he got in the election. Dems will be better investing in Alaska in the future instead of winning IA back.

If this drop is indicative of other places in the country, Democrats are in deep trouble for 2022.

[Matty]

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2021/06/22/iowa-poll-joe-biden-approval-rating-kamala-harris-covid-immigration/7736797002/

Biden's numbers about the same in Iowa as he got in the election. Dems will be better investing in Alaska in the future instead of winning IA back.

If this drop is indicative of other places in the country, Democrats are in deep trouble for 2022.

no

if this poll is accurate, biden is at +4 nationally.