Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are gonna get the results pretty soon here, so it's no use of arguing, but since the 2K checks hasn't been delivered, every poll has WARNOCK and Ossoff in the driver's seat, and Trump is already casting doubt on the results and Gingrich said if Mcconnell didn't pass 2K checks Rs will lose GA

Every poll coming out has Ossoff and WARNOCK at 50/45/ even Trafalgar and Gravis

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

What's going to be really annoying is if one side wins both of these, they're going to act like they have a mandate to either fully persue Biden's agenda or entirely block Biden's agenda, even though basically half of the people who voted voted against their party.

A split verdict would be hilarious; it would be interesting to see how the parties react, and it would just be a crazy end to a crazy election cycle.

That's my biggest problem with the winner-take-all system in such a polarized environment. A 50-50 victory is the equivalent of a 100-0 landslide with no one believing the victors "I will be a representative for everyone" malarkey

Yep.

What’s killing us is the lack of credible polling

I just don’t take Emerson, surveyusa, trafalgar, etc seriously

Gravis is ok I guess, but even they have pooped the bed at times in recent cycles

Where are fox, cnn, abc/WAPO, Monmouth, Sienna, etc?

In fairness, the amount of credible pollsters anymore has fallen dramatically in the last 4 years (And it's not because of polling errors)

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1345046682120171521

The democrats may have Billie Eilish but that is nothing in comparsion to the amazing endorsment Kelly Loeffler got from from "real americans" like this guy......




Now try and top that Dems lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great ad unlike the Bagel Perdue ad, geez Bagel, he gonna eat crow Tuesday

[Tender Branson]

Billie is a bit late with her ad ...

She released it on New Year and said: Go early vote.

But early voting ended on December 31.

LOL.

Besides, her target audience are 10-15 year old teenage girls, who are unable to vote.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Great ad unlike the Bagel Perdue ad, geez Bagel, he gonna eat crow Tuesday

McGrATH aNd HARriSSoN CaN wIn BEcauSe 2K STimuLus dEms SUPpoRt GOp nO

> 3 weeks later, no they were doomed never could win

> even later changes mind again, etc.

Literally all you do, this forum would be better off if you would just shut up  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Election yr ploy was the Stimulus anyways whie some haven't even gotten their tax refunds, and the IRS gives some people their first  the Stimulus,and others last and we don't know when we will get ours. Just like donations to Act blue and Joe Kennedy lost. What happened to get my stimulus on IRS, convently it's on maintaince, when we are expecting stimulus. As soon as you get yoru beginning of the month or middle of month, it should be deposited with your Unemployment or SSA check. By alphabetical order, they told us on New Years we were gonna get it

Politics is for entertainment purposes too, it's best not to get over excited over these races, we are at 6% Unemploymenat most people on Unemployment make more than working

But 600 only buys food and groceries, most of us want more than that and are in debt

[Senator Cris]

When there'll be some kind of definitive results?

[Tender Branson]

When there'll be some kind of definitive results?

Wednesday or so.

[MillennialModerate]

I’m still surprised Dems don’t put out a massive social media and young voter oriented message:

“Republicans are blocking $2000 checks that both Biden and Trump want you to have”

“If Democrats win on Tuesday - You will get $2000 checks”

If you can get that message in the heads of young people who rarely vote I think you could ramp up turnout but.... too late now I suppose

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I’m still surprised Dems don’t put out a massive social media and young voter oriented message:

“Republicans are blocking $2000 checks that both Biden and Trump want you to have”

“If Democrats win on Tuesday - You will get $2000 checks”

If you can get that message in the heads of young people who rarely vote I think you could ramp up turnout but.... too late now I suppose

Democrats are doing that, people need to stop armchair campagin managing by suggesting things that are already being done.

[wbrocks67]

Billie is a bit late with her ad ...

She released it on New Year and said: Go early vote.

But early voting ended on December 31.

LOL.

Besides, her target audience are 10-15 year old teenage girls, who are unable to vote.

that's not true at all

[wbrocks67]

Strong candidate Loeffler!

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1345738259759050753

[forsythvoter]

One underdiscussed topic is what do folks think is the percent of the black vote that Ossoff / Warnock will get? Polls seemed to show Biden got 88-90% of the black vote, which is actually on the low end for a Democrat in a deep southern state like GA. I think there are some reasons to think Ossoff / Warnock will outperform this by a few percentage points.

If black voters make up 3% more of the electorate vs. November and give Ossoff / Warnock a 5% greater margin, that actually brings down the white share that Ossoff / Warnock need to receive from Biden's 30% to 26% or so.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One underdiscussed topic is what do folks think is the percent of the black vote that Ossoff / Warnock will get? Polls seemed to show Biden got 88-90% of the black vote, which is actually on the low end for a Democrat in a deep southern state like GA. I think there are some reasons to think Ossoff / Warnock will outperform this by a few percentage points.

If black voters make up 3% more of the electorate vs. November and give Ossoff / Warnock a 5% greater margin, that actually brings down the white share that Ossoff / Warnock need to receive from Biden's 30% to 26% or so.

My guess is 91%. While Biden did only probably win about 89% of the black vote in Georgia, the final 11% was probably something like 8-9% Trump and 2-3% 3rd party. These 2-3% 3rd party may have less of a reason to show up in a binary runoff but if they did, they would likely skew D. Furthermore, historically, black Democrats in the South have had a stronger showing in off years, so my gut says they would win about 91 or 92% of the black vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1345750523861987328
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1345751541681172481

[forsythvoter]

One underdiscussed topic is what do folks think is the percent of the black vote that Ossoff / Warnock will get? Polls seemed to show Biden got 88-90% of the black vote, which is actually on the low end for a Democrat in a deep southern state like GA. I think there are some reasons to think Ossoff / Warnock will outperform this by a few percentage points.

If black voters make up 3% more of the electorate vs. November and give Ossoff / Warnock a 5% greater margin, that actually brings down the white share that Ossoff / Warnock need to receive from Biden's 30% to 26% or so.

My guess is 91%. While Biden did only probably win about 89% of the black vote in Georgia, the final 11% was probably something like 8-9% Trump and 2-3% 3rd party. These 2-3% 3rd party may have less of a reason to show up in a binary runoff but if they did, they would likely skew D. Furthermore, historically, black Democrats in the South have had a stronger showing in off years, so my gut says they would win about 91 or 92% of the black vote.

Yeah that seems reasonable. What percent of the black vote did Abrams get? I feel like the % black vote for Ossoff / Warnock will end up somewhere between the Biden and Abrams numbers.

[wbrocks67]

One underdiscussed topic is what do folks think is the percent of the black vote that Ossoff / Warnock will get? Polls seemed to show Biden got 88-90% of the black vote, which is actually on the low end for a Democrat in a deep southern state like GA. I think there are some reasons to think Ossoff / Warnock will outperform this by a few percentage points.

If black voters make up 3% more of the electorate vs. November and give Ossoff / Warnock a 5% greater margin, that actually brings down the white share that Ossoff / Warnock need to receive from Biden's 30% to 26% or so.

My guess is 91%. While Biden did only probably win about 89% of the black vote in Georgia, the final 11% was probably something like 8-9% Trump and 2-3% 3rd party. These 2-3% 3rd party may have less of a reason to show up in a binary runoff but if they did, they would likely skew D. Furthermore, historically, black Democrats in the South have had a stronger showing in off years, so my gut says they would win about 91 or 92% of the black vote.

Yeah that seems reasonable. What percent of the black vote did Abrams get? I feel like the % black vote for Ossoff / Warnock will end up somewhere between the Biden and Abrams numbers.

CNN's exit for 2018 has Abrams at 93% black vote and Kemp 6%

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1345750523861987328
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1345751541681172481

What do the numbers mean?

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1345750523861987328
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1345751541681172481

What do the numbers mean?

I have no idea

but Nates comments about voters who turned out for early voting last time but haven't voted yet being very trumpy. does not realy seem like a good sign for the GOP

maybe I reading it wrong but that does seem to suggest less enthusiasm from GOP voters since even republicans who voted early in the general election have still not yet voted in the runoff

[Rookie Yinzer]

I’m still surprised Dems don’t put out a massive social media and young voter oriented message:

“Republicans are blocking $2000 checks that both Biden and Trump want you to have”

“If Democrats win on Tuesday - You will get $2000 checks”

If you can get that message in the heads of young people who rarely vote I think you could ramp up turnout but.... too late now I suppose

Democrats are doing that, people need to stop armchair campagin managing by suggesting things that are already being done.

Thank you!

If y’all want to talk about the election so much people from out of state can call into Georgia to encourage people to vote and also help cure rejected ballots. I can help any of y’all out with volunteer opportunities!

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1345765912037777411
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1345766439135948801
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1345767256358342657
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1345768351579123713
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1345769192637800452

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pro tip: when embedding several tweets from the same thread like that, only do every second tweet in the thread, since the preceding one comes along with it in the embed.

[KaiserDave]

I’m still surprised Dems don’t put out a massive social media and young voter oriented message:

“Republicans are blocking $2000 checks that both Biden and Trump want you to have”

“If Democrats win on Tuesday - You will get $2000 checks”

If you can get that message in the heads of young people who rarely vote I think you could ramp up turnout but.... too late now I suppose

How can you possibly be so out to lunch

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1345765912037777411
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1345766439135948801
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1345767256358342657
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1345768351579123713
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1345769192637800452

I generally agree, but I think 350k seems on the high end of Ossoff's current lead. As I've said before, i think my model which shows him with a 213k is a slight undercount, and in reality it's prolly closer to 250k or so, but 350k gives the benefit of the doubt to Ossoff.

I think the one thing we can all agree on is that Perdue will likely have to net AT LEAST as many votes as he did on e-day in November.