Arizona megathread

[Spectator]

Republicans have done everything they possibly can to nominate  the worst candidates possible in races where they should in theory be heavy favorites to win. Arizona and Pennsylvania (gov and senate) being the prime examples.

I guess this same thing happened in 2010 in Delaware, Nevada, Illinois (Governor), and Colorado, so we shouldn’t be completely surprised.

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??

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1554944582500114432

Seems like she’s pivoting very well

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That is not true. Hobbs was always considered the Democrat most likely to win a statewide race in 2018 after Sinema.

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I think it often gets missed by people, but being a bumbling idiot ranting about conspiracies only has worked for Donald Trump himself. Never any of the other people that have tried to emulate him, at least in competitive states. Trumpism is unique to the man himself. Not Doug Mastriano. Not Kari Lake. Not Kelly Loeffler.

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This lady is probably the Trumpiest woman I’ve ever seen. She’s basically like a female DeSantis except crazier. She also has a certain charisma to her that clearly comes from her many years as a media presence. If she wins (God help us) I wouldn’t be surprised to see her as Trump’s running mate.  

First of all the chances Trump is the nominee have fallen considerably from earlier in the year. And secondly Lake won’t be the running mate because she’ll be busy running the show in AZ. And her chances at being on the ticket go down to zero if Finchem loses his race.

I don’t see a world where Lake wins and Fontes wins the SOS race. If Lake wins, all the psychos win.

[Spectator]

This lady is probably the Trumpiest woman I’ve ever seen. She’s basically like a female DeSantis except crazier. She also has a certain charisma to her that clearly comes from her many years as a media presence. If she wins (God help us) I wouldn’t be surprised to see her as Trump’s running mate. 

First of all the chances Trump is the nominee have fallen considerably from earlier in the year. And secondly Lake won’t be the running mate because she’ll be busy running the show in AZ. And her chances at being on the ticket go down to zero if Finchem loses his race.

I don’t see a world where Lake wins and Fontes wins the SOS race.

Is the opposite more likely?

It’s hard for me to imagine anyone thinking “Lake is fine, but Finchem is too extreme”. The opposite I can see happen, sure. With moderate Republicans crossing over to vote for Hobbs but not doing much research on the downballot and just voting Republican for the other offices. I do expect there to be a non-negligible number of those types of voters. Kinda like there was a decent amount of voters in 2020 who voted for Biden and Kelly but for Republicans for everything else (see the Maricopa County results where the Sheriff race was the only Dem win).

[Spectator]

It’s interesting to note that Katie Hobbs almost won the non-Maricopa County part of Arizona in 2018. She only lost it by less than 400 votes, doing better than Kyrsten Sinema who lost the rest of the state by about 5,000 votes.

[Spectator]

NYT calls it for Kari Lake, she wins all 15 counties while leading by less than 3%. Despite Katie Hobbs leading by 50%, she lost Santa Cruz county to Lopez. Blake Masters also lost Gila to Lamon.

Santa Cruz County was where her opponent’s hometown is, so easy to chalk it up to that.

[Spectator]

Kari Lake continues acting like she’s running for Governor of Oklahoma, posing with MTG:

https://mobile.twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1555917531239645184/photo/1

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I wonder what Arpaio will run for in 2024. Probably Senate again.

Not to be crass, but he’ll probably be dead.

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https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1556808739281203200
Now this does put a smile on my face

You can’t even make this stuff up lol

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This is the state I am dooming the most about. Katie Hobbs needs to step up her game and start hitting the campaign trail. Thus far, she has run a nonexistent campaign.

She’s been on the trail for much of the past two weeks. What are you talking about?

She doesn’t seem to be as visible as Kari Lake.

When your opponent is off the rails, you don’t generally want to steal the spotlight from them.

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If Fontes is actually leading in the SOS race, Hobbs and Kelly are probably better positioned.

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To the extent that the SoS race will be covered, I think most of the coverage will center around how crazy Finchem is. That could work to his advantage if it motivates Republican voters more, though.

Yeah, like the psychos weren’t already motivated.

[Spectator]

If Fontes is actually leading in the SOS race, Hobbs and Kelly are probably better positioned.

Yes and no.  Kelly is clearly in the driver's seat in his race and will likely lead the AZ Democratic ticket this year, but I think Fontes will probably outrun Hobbs by a few points.

I don’t think a Lake/Fontes/Hamadeh/Kelly victory is impossible by any means. There’s probably some low info Lake voters who may vote D on some down ballot races.

If Lake wins it’s because it’s a wave. Let’s dispel with this fiction that her being a former news anchor will magically wave away all the stupid sh**t she’s done in the primary and beyond hollering about the election being stolen.

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Who actually has watched a non-presidential debate ever? Lolol

No one gives a sh**t. They’re more concerned whether it will rain tomorrow or if Bitcoin will go up.

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I'm gonna go off on a limb here and say that I think it's possible for Kari Lake to narrowly take Maricopa county if she wins. A 4+ win likely sees her carrying the county while 2-3% it's tossup. There is still enough juice for a Trumpy candidate to squeeze out a win here although it is fading. Since Masters will run behind Lake, I don't see him winning it unless Lake is winning by 5+.

What is your view of the campaign situation in Arizona right now? Between Lake and Masters, who is running the better campaign and who has more enthusiasm from their supporters? And what about Hobbs? She decided to pull out of the debate with Lake, which I see as a foolish decision on her part.

In a vacuum Masters is running a stronger campaign, because he is at least pivoting to the general. Some Kari Lake signs from the primary have been taken down and replaced with new ones that have Trump-endorsed at the top. The thing is though Lake has a lower bar to clear since she isn't facing an incumbent and Arizona is redder on the state level.

Why is it a given that “Arizona being redder at the state level” would apply to this race for some reason? Kathy Hoffman and Katie Hobbs herself both won statewide state-level races and did better than Biden in the process. And Dems have won a few statewide seats on the Public Service Commission.

[Spectator]

Honestly Hobbs should just pay for these videos to be run nonstop on TV at this point. Lake does the work for her

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1567693142987513856

Obama-Trump voters are weirdos, news at 10.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1570249081125228544

For all Hobbs campaign misteps, Lake sure is doing all she can to keep Hobbs hopes alive lol

I was told that Kari Lake was the one running a good campaign by the people in this thread though

[Spectator]

I am happy that Hobbs won..but just because Hobbs won doesn't necessarily mean she ran a great campaign. Her favorables were meh and she just came across a bland boring candidate..this election for me looked more like it was about Lake and in the end Lake acted bit too crazily and ended up losing. I think Hobbs would have lost if Lake acted just slightly more sanely.

I would like to get any insight from Arizonians here on this race and my assessment.

Watch Hobbs turn out to be an amazing governor with presidential buzz after all this lol.

Sometimes greatness comes from the people you least expect, after all. Harry Truman is Exhibit A, and this was certainly a Truman-esque win on her part.

Her appearance will be made fun of....Kari Lake is more attractive........

Not that physical appearance is relevant, but Hobbs is much more attractive

Not that it should matter, but it unfortunately probably subtly does—I do not think Hobbs would have won if she had the haircut she had in 2018. Her growing out her hair probably mattered subconsciously.

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Do we know how much of Apache and Pima are still out? I think Dems are likely to retain the narrow lead in the Attorney General race if those still have batches out. Possibly flip Superintendent back too.

Attorney General matters in terms of stopping Hamadeh, an election denier, in his tracks.

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Knives are deservedly out for Kelli Ward:
https://twitter.com/Karrin4Arizona/status/1592563002901172224

They’ll probably respond by giving going even nuttier.

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Yeah, Hobbs looks like 15 years younger than she did in 2018. It's kind of insane what losing some weight and a new haircut can do. I was even shocked to see that she was 53. She looked it in 2018 but not at all now.

For as much attention as Lake has gotten for her looks, Hobbs certainly did lose weight and looks conventionally much more attractive now. I think that did play a small role.

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Anyone have Hobbs-Lake by legislative district? Hobbs probably won a majority since she dominated among swing white moderates. Lake seems to have retained most of the Trump 2020 hispanic shift. Kelly did noticeably better than Biden in hispanic precincts.

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1594772951613710339

The AZ-Sen GOP front runner in 2024 folks