Arizona megathread

[Progressive Pessimist]

Yeah, Lake has so much more self-restraint than Mastriano...

[Spectator]

It’s interesting to note that Katie Hobbs almost won the non-Maricopa County part of Arizona in 2018. She only lost it by less than 400 votes, doing better than Kyrsten Sinema who lost the rest of the state by about 5,000 votes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Katie Hobbs is leading Lake by more than Robson 48/40

[Arizona Iced Tea]

NYT calls it for Kari Lake, she wins all 15 counties while leading by less than 3%. Despite Katie Hobbs leading by 50%, she lost Santa Cruz county to Lopez. Blake Masters also lost Gila to Lamon.

[emailking]

CNN called it too. Uggh, guess we're stuck with her for 3 months.

[Devout Centrist]

CNN called it too. Uggh, guess we're stuck with her for 3 months.

If we're lucky, it'll just be three months.

[Spectator]

NYT calls it for Kari Lake, she wins all 15 counties while leading by less than 3%. Despite Katie Hobbs leading by 50%, she lost Santa Cruz county to Lopez. Blake Masters also lost Gila to Lamon.

Santa Cruz County was where her opponent’s hometown is, so easy to chalk it up to that.

[Sir Mohamed]

CNN called it too. Uggh, guess we're stuck with her for 3 months.

4 years is for sure a possibility.

Lean R -> Pure tossup

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hope Hobbs responds to Lake she is going after Hobs already

[emailking]

I'm being optimistic I guess, haha.

[Spectator]

Kari Lake continues acting like she’s running for Governor of Oklahoma, posing with MTG:

https://mobile.twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1555917531239645184/photo/1

[Orange is back]

https://twitter.com/DougDucey/status/1556003651017027584

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

There will not be a pivot, and it's very curious to me how Lake thinks this is a winning message for a state that rejected Trumpism in 2020.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1555225941982359553

Except that the people embracing Trumpism don't believe Arizona rejected them. They're in a cult and alternate reality, in which their God Emperor won Arizona and the entire election bigly. Just the RINOs like Ducey and Kemp stole it for Brandon.

Can confirm. Many people on alt-right websites actually believe that Trump even won states like California and Washington cause 'I see so many MAGA signs in bum-fck nowhere!' They genuinely live in an alternate reality.

[wbrocks67]

LMAO, if only there was as much outrage over Republicans/RGA supporting election deniers as there was Democrats throwing a few dollars at an ad touting how crazy they are.

Ducey is just as craven, if not more so.

[ProgressiveModerate]

LMAO, if only there was as much outrage over Republicans/RGA supporting election deniers as there was Democrats throwing a few dollars at an ad touting how crazy they are.

Ducey is just as craven, if not more so.

Ducey comes across as a really Douchey guy. Yes he’s sane, but when it’s politically genetically to him and he full well knows the consequences of Lake. Doug Douchey.

[Roll Roons]

In a bright spot for this cursed state:
https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1555742047641825280

Trump got 60% in this town. Looks like even a lot of conservatives are done with Arpaio's crap. Hopefully they continue to reject extremism in November.

[SnowLabrador]

I wonder what Arpaio will run for in 2024. Probably Senate again.

[Spectator]

I wonder what Arpaio will run for in 2024. Probably Senate again.

Not to be crass, but he’ll probably be dead.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One underrated discussion is despite Lake only narrowly beating Robson, she won every County and did about the same everywhere in the state. To be fair Robson won the new AZ-01 but only very narrowly, and stereotypically, that's the district that most embodies establishment/"moderate" Republicans.

Yet Hobbs despite winning in a 50+ point landslide lost heavily Hispanic Santa Cruz County to her Hispanic Challenger Marco Lopez. She also came close to losing Yuma, another heavily Hispanic border County.

I feel like this is somewhat telling. Even though it seems like the GOP base in many ways is more divided due to the primary being much more contested, Dem support tends to be much more regionally and racially polarized.

It also brings up the question will Hobbs suffer with Hispanics or did Hispanics vote this way purely cause of the Lopez's Hispanic name?

I'd be very curious come November who wins the new AZ-01 and AZ-06 for Governor, especially since most have these as pretty solid Republican victories on the Congressional level. Hobbs probably needs to run up the margins in the Pheonix suburbs, especially since I think it'll be hard for her (or frankly anyone) to sustain the Hispanic turnout needed to win on 2020 margins. It's simillar to how Sinema and Kelly both won their Senate races by virtually identical margins yet Sinema did better than Kelly margin wise basically everywhere except the area of the old AZ-02 which McSally represented. 2018 turnout in the Hispanic parts of the state were just low.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I wonder what Arpaio will run for in 2024. Probably Senate again.

Hopefully the Hell Senate. Maybe we can have a Kissinger-Arpaio matchup with incumbent Senator Pol Pot retiring.

[wbrocks67]

One underrated discussion is despite Lake only narrowly beating Robson, she won every County and did about the same everywhere in the state. To be fair Robson won the new AZ-01 but only very narrowly, and stereotypically, that's the district that most embodies establishment/"moderate" Republicans.

Yet Hobbs despite winning in a 50+ point landslide lost heavily Hispanic Santa Cruz County to her Hispanic Challenger Marco Lopez. She also came close to losing Yuma, another heavily Hispanic border County.

I feel like this is somewhat telling. Even though it seems like the GOP base in many ways is more divided due to the primary being much more contested, Dem support tends to be much more regionally and racially polarized.

It also brings up the question will Hobbs suffer with Hispanics or did Hispanics vote this way purely cause of the Lopez's Hispanic name?

I'd be very curious come November who wins the new AZ-01 and AZ-06 for Governor, especially since most have these as pretty solid Republican victories on the Congressional level. Hobbs probably needs to run up the margins in the Pheonix suburbs, especially since I think it'll be hard for her (or frankly anyone) to sustain the Hispanic turnout needed to win on 2020 margins. It's simillar to how Sinema and Kelly both won their Senate races by virtually identical margins yet Sinema did better than Kelly margin wise basically everywhere except the area of the old AZ-02 which McSally represented. 2018 turnout in the Hispanic parts of the state were just low.

Santa Cruz was Lopez's home county, so pretty sure that's why she lost that one.

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1556808739281203200
Now this does put a smile on my face

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1556808739281203200
Now this does put a smile on my face

You can’t even make this stuff up lol

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Yet Hobbs despite winning in a 50+ point landslide lost heavily Hispanic Santa Cruz County to her Hispanic Challenger Marco Lopez. She also came close to losing Yuma, another heavily Hispanic border County.

I feel like this is somewhat telling. Even though it seems like the GOP base in many ways is more divided due to the primary being much more contested, Dem support tends to be much more regionally and racially polarized.

It also brings up the question will Hobbs suffer with Hispanics or did Hispanics vote this way purely cause of the Lopez's Hispanic name?

It happens in California & Texas as well. Beto did pretty bad in his Senate primary in South Texas against his Hispanic challenger. Likewise, the only areas Villaraigosa came out on top in his gubernatorial primary was Imperial County & majority-Hispanic congressional districts.

[wbrocks67]

That statement from Lake is absolutely batsh*t insane.