Arizona megathread

[citizenZ]

The problem for Lake is that we're 2 weeks out and she still has this albatross around her neck - and much is her own fault. She keeps going on interviews and essentially is constantly keeping the 2020 (and 2022) election denial in the headlines. Not sure why she's so hell-bent on making sure it's still what voters are going to hear about her.

https://twitter.com/sbarchenger/status/1584357184200056832

I have a feeling election denying isn't the third rail people on here people think it is.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The problem for Lake is that we're 2 weeks out and she still has this albatross around her neck - and much is her own fault. She keeps going on interviews and essentially is constantly keeping the 2020 (and 2022) election denial in the headlines. Not sure why she's so hell-bent on making sure it's still what voters are going to hear about her.

https://twitter.com/sbarchenger/status/1584357184200056832

I have a feeling election denying isn't the third rail people on here people think it is.

It is and it isn’t.

There is a significant chunk of the population both left right and in between where no matter what this will never be an issue of concern to them.

On the flip side, there def are some moderate Dems and independents who care strongly about this issue, but they were probably already in the bag for Hobbs from day 1 and continuing to juice the issue will be less rewarding.

No one has to be convinced Lake said what she said and it’s been widely reported on in the media.

[Aurelius]

I’m not really sure how Hobbs not debating is supposedly single-handedly killing her campaign when after every other debate everyone on Atlas agrees that debates don’t change anything. You can’t have it both ways.

Debates don't change anything unless someone makes a big gaffe. But refusing to debate does. It looks cowardly and weak even to the vast majority who don't watch debates.

[Ferguson97]

I’m not really sure how Hobbs not debating is supposedly single-handedly killing her campaign when after every other debate everyone on Atlas agrees that debates don’t change anything. You can’t have it both ways.

Debates don't change anything unless someone makes a big gaffe. But refusing to debate does. It looks cowardly and weak even to the vast majority who don't watch debates.

I honestly don't think persuadable voters will care or even know that she refused to debate.

[Calthrina950]

I’m not really sure how Hobbs not debating is supposedly single-handedly killing her campaign when after every other debate everyone on Atlas agrees that debates don’t change anything. You can’t have it both ways.

Debates don't change anything unless someone makes a big gaffe. But refusing to debate does. It looks cowardly and weak even to the vast majority who don't watch debates.

I honestly don't think persuadable voters will care or even know that she refused to debate.

Your belief is that Hobbs will still win because of how extreme Lake is? That the campaign which she's run matters little?

[Mr. Smith]

I’m not really sure how Hobbs not debating is supposedly single-handedly killing her campaign when after every other debate everyone on Atlas agrees that debates don’t change anything. You can’t have it both ways.

The debate itself changes nothing; but you still have to agree to do it lest you look like you're a chicken.

[xavier110]

The problem for Lake is that we're 2 weeks out and she still has this albatross around her neck - and much is her own fault. She keeps going on interviews and essentially is constantly keeping the 2020 (and 2022) election denial in the headlines. Not sure why she's so hell-bent on making sure it's still what voters are going to hear about her.

https://twitter.com/sbarchenger/status/1584357184200056832

I have a feeling election denying isn't the third rail people on here people think it is.

Your feeling is wrong, This is THE reason this is even close… it is a complete turnoff to a critical bloc of voters. If she loses, this is why (and in that case Finchem probably loses too).

[Ferguson97]

I’m not really sure how Hobbs not debating is supposedly single-handedly killing her campaign when after every other debate everyone on Atlas agrees that debates don’t change anything. You can’t have it both ways.

The debate itself changes nothing; but you still have to agree to do it lest you look like you're a chicken.

So uh anyone else care to change their views on "Hobbs is an idiot for not debating" after Fetterman-Oz?

[bagelman]

I’m not really sure how Hobbs not debating is supposedly single-handedly killing her campaign when after every other debate everyone on Atlas agrees that debates don’t change anything. You can’t have it both ways.

The debate itself changes nothing; but you still have to agree to do it lest you look like you're a chicken.

So uh anyone else care to change their views on "Hobbs is an idiot for not debating" after Fetterman-Oz?

1. It's not about the debate itself, it's about the headline that says "Hobbs refuses to debate opponent"

2. Hobbs isn't recovering from a stroke so her speech is not impaired.

[Ferguson97]

It's not about the debate itself, it's about the headline that says "Hobbs refuses to debate opponent"

I think Hobbs losing a debate is much more harmful than Hobbs refusing to debate.

[wbrocks67]

Once again, Lake really talking about issues that matter - now she's going after the NFL and the Super Bowl.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1584343236218302464

[Unelectable Bystander]

Once again, Lake really talking about issues that matter - now she's going after the NFL and the Super Bowl.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1584343236218302464

Not a big fan of Lake from what I’ve seen and I have no idea what she’s talking about, but this is good. The people decide who governs and how they govern, not wealthy elite corporations. The leaders need to make it clear that bullying by big business will not be tolerated.

[Del Tachi]

I honestly don't think persuadable voters will care or even know that she refused to debate.

Attacks like this are actually some of the only ones independent/persuadable voters respond to.  Stuff about "protecting democracy" or election denialism gets played exclusively for partisans. 

I think Hobbs losing a debate is much more harmful than Hobbs refusing to debate.

No.  Unless there's some major gaffe, debates get spun by both sides and end up having very little effect.  As long as Lake can hammer Hobbs on refusing to debate, she gets to control the narrative.  It puts Hobbs on defense.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The problem for Lake is that we're 2 weeks out and she still has this albatross around her neck - and much is her own fault. She keeps going on interviews and essentially is constantly keeping the 2020 (and 2022) election denial in the headlines. Not sure why she's so hell-bent on making sure it's still what voters are going to hear about her.

https://twitter.com/sbarchenger/status/1584357184200056832

I have a feeling election denying isn't the third rail people on here people think it is.

CitizenZ, I'm with you on this year being good for Republicans, but you need to learn when to take the l lol. The idea this doesn't matter In a state with a lot of college Ed Romney-Trump-Biden voters doesn't make much sense. Not saying Lake won't win, but her skeletons are toxic to a good portion of the electorate

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JBontkeABC15/status/1585425784574836737

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1585676755280412672

[wbrocks67]

Cheney out with ad in AZ against Lake/Finchem-

https://twitter.com/nicholaswu12/status/1586018170929913857

[wbrocks67]

This woman is just straight up gross.

https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1586180745822982145

[GeorgiaModerate]

Everyone in Arizona needs to watch this and share it with your friends and family in the state.

https://twitter.com/60Minutes/status/1586858786274574336

[xavier110]

Peak AZ. Would love to see this person’s ballot, since this is the type of voter deciding this year here.

https://twitter.com/AZHeidiP/status/1586921776591753216?cxt=HHwWgMCqwdW88IUsAAAA

[wbrocks67]

Peak AZ. Would love to see this person’s ballot, since this is the type of voter deciding this year here.

https://twitter.com/AZHeidiP/status/1586921776591753216?cxt=HHwWgMCqwdW88IUsAAAA

Kelly and Hobbs are pretty mainstream, especially compared to Lake/Masters, so this comparison seems a bit flimsy to me.

[xavier110]

Peak AZ. Would love to see this person’s ballot, since this is the type of voter deciding this year here.

https://twitter.com/AZHeidiP/status/1586921776591753216?cxt=HHwWgMCqwdW88IUsAAAA

Kelly and Hobbs are pretty mainstream, especially compared to Lake/Masters, so this comparison seems a bit flimsy to me.

Sure. I mean, I agree with you. But here, there is a core chunk of fairly conservative voters like her who would consider Hobbs extreme on policy (e.g., abortion—this person appears to consider it state-sanctioned murder…) but are still entertaining voting for her. That’s huge. I just see recurring blips of disgruntled Rs like her really struggling this election and I’m trying to read between the lines and empathize with them.

My sense is they need to do a lot of mental gymnastics to justify a D vote. And I don’t blame them — it would be really difficult and out of character for me to suddenly start voting for Trumpers one election cycle.

Otherwise, there’s not much persuasion to be had. Ds just have to rally loyal D Latino voters and youth (Hi Obama), Rs gotta get MAGAs out on EDay, etc.

[wbrocks67]

Peak AZ. Would love to see this person’s ballot, since this is the type of voter deciding this year here.

https://twitter.com/AZHeidiP/status/1586921776591753216?cxt=HHwWgMCqwdW88IUsAAAA

Kelly and Hobbs are pretty mainstream, especially compared to Lake/Masters, so this comparison seems a bit flimsy to me.

Sure. I mean, I agree with you. But here, there is a core chunk of fairly conservative voters like her who would consider Hobbs extreme on policy (e.g., abortion—this person appears to consider it state-sanctioned murder…) but are still entertaining voting for her. That’s huge. I just see recurring blips of disgruntled Rs like her really struggling this election and I’m trying to read between the lines and empathize with them.

My sense is they need to do a lot of mental gymnastics to justify a D vote. And I don’t blame them — it would be really difficult and out of character for me to suddenly start voting for Trumpers one election cycle.

Otherwise, there’s not much persuasion to be had. Ds just have to rally loyal D Latino voters and youth (Hi Obama), Rs gotta get MAGAs out on EDay, etc.

On that note, happy to see Obama is coming to do a rally for both Hobbs and Kelly on Wednesday

[GeorgiaModerate]

In just another day in Arizona politics:

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1587195996517171200

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1587210976129998849

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1587219437660164097

[ProgressiveModerate]

Peak AZ. Would love to see this person’s ballot, since this is the type of voter deciding this year here.

https://twitter.com/AZHeidiP/status/1586921776591753216?cxt=HHwWgMCqwdW88IUsAAAA

Kelly and Hobbs are pretty mainstream, especially compared to Lake/Masters, so this comparison seems a bit flimsy to me.

Sure. I mean, I agree with you. But here, there is a core chunk of fairly conservative voters like her who would consider Hobbs extreme on policy (e.g., abortion—this person appears to consider it state-sanctioned murder…) but are still entertaining voting for her. That’s huge. I just see recurring blips of disgruntled Rs like her really struggling this election and I’m trying to read between the lines and empathize with them.

My sense is they need to do a lot of mental gymnastics to justify a D vote. And I don’t blame them — it would be really difficult and out of character for me to suddenly start voting for Trumpers one election cycle.

Otherwise, there’s not much persuasion to be had. Ds just have to rally loyal D Latino voters and youth (Hi Obama), Rs gotta get MAGAs out on EDay, etc.

On that note, happy to see Obama is coming to do a rally for both Hobbs and Kelly on Wednesday

I'd be curious in a more modern day matchup how Obama did in AZ. He lost it pretty big in both 2008 and 2012, but 2008 he was running against McCain, and in 2012 Romney was still a great fit for the state. It also seems like since then AZ Demographics have generally shifted to be more favorable to Democrats.