Arizona megathread

[Calthrina950]

Is wbrocks a member of the Kari Lake campaign team? wbrocks keeps posting clips that make me like Kari Lake more, lol

He certainly does seem to like Katie Hobbs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Is wbrocks a member of the Kari Lake campaign team? wbrocks keeps posting clips that make me like Kari Lake more, lol

I feel safe in saying that you're not part of his target audience.

[xavier110]

Well, my family has filled out our ballots. Time to mule it up and stop the MAGA lunatics.

You have any inkling how they voted? I just dropped off my ballot yesterday.

My household is straight D. My other family member in AZ, my dad, likely votes straight GOP based off my limited texts with him. He’s politically, in my opinion, insane so I am not surprised about that. We agree on not establishing the Lt Gov office at least

[kwabbit]

Lake is now.. begging Hobbs to debate her on The View.

I can't take this campaign seriously.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1581508375069663234?t=adkMmXPnqdkT0PQV05wKXw...

Dude how does this reflect poorly on Lake? She's clearly making a joke, so of course you can't take it seriously. Sometimes I don't get you wbrocks.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Is wbrocks a member of the Kari Lake campaign team? wbrocks keeps posting clips that make me like Kari Lake more, lol

I feel safe in saying that you're not part of his target audience.

...a person who votes for D's or R depending on the election is not his target audience? Who is his audience - dem's who already agree with him and vote the same 100% of the time no matter what? Makes sense why his comments are so out of touch all of the time.


I think y'all need to realize the socially moderate lib econ moderate conservative is not the average swing voter. And y'all act like doubting some of the 2020 election is the most damning crime in humanity, when two of the democratic politicians I voted for, Hillary Clinton and Stacey Abrams, both deny the legitimacy of the person who beat them.

[Calthrina950]

Lake is now.. begging Hobbs to debate her on The View.

I can't take this campaign seriously.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1581508375069663234?t=adkMmXPnqdkT0PQV05wKXw...

Dude how does this reflect poorly on Lake? She's clearly making a joke, so of course you can't take it seriously. Sometimes I don't get you wbrocks.

Lake hasn't been "begging" for a debate. She's been using Hobbs' refusal to debate as an attack against her, and if the polls are any indication, it has been an effective one.

[2016]

Maybe we should ask MSNBC to hire wbrocks as Political Analyst? Seriously ya'll need to stop feeding him. He is a little bit of an attention seeker.

[2016]

Lake is now.. begging Hobbs to debate her on The View.

I can't take this campaign seriously.

https://twitter.com/KariLake/status/1581508375069663234?t=adkMmXPnqdkT0PQV05wKXw...

Dude how does this reflect poorly on Lake? She's clearly making a joke, so of course you can't take it seriously. Sometimes I don't get you wbrocks.

Lake hasn't been "begging" for a debate. She's been using Hobbs' refusal to debate as an attack against her, and if the polls are any indication, it has been an effective one.

This is spot on!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Maybe we should ask MSNBC to hire wbrocks as Political Analyst? Seriously ya'll need to stop feeding him. He is a little bit of an attention seeker.

Mr. Pot, I'd like you to meet Mr. Kettle.

[wbrocks67]

Y'all want to get on me for defending Hobbs, when some of you defend every move Lake does as if she's not running a dumpster fire of a campaign...

[kwabbit]

Y'all want to get on me for defending Hobbs, when some of you defend every move Lake does as if she's not running a dumpster fire of a campaign...

You weren't even defending Hobbs, you just posted a video of Lake being affable and joking with her supporters and suggested that she was legitimately begging Hobbs to debate her on the view.

Lake has a lead in the polling average and has had favorable trends in the polling average for months. You can call that a dumpster fire of a campaign if you want. But please provide an explanation for why Lake has the advantage when her peers in Dixon and Mastriano are getting blown out then. One would think that a dumpster fire of a campaign against the solid campaign Hobbs is conducting would yield similar results in states with similar partisanship.

[wbrocks67]

Y'all want to get on me for defending Hobbs, when some of you defend every move Lake does as if she's not running a dumpster fire of a campaign...

You weren't even defending Hobbs, you just posted a video of Lake being affable and joking with her supporters and suggested that she was legitimately begging Hobbs to debate her on the view.

Lake has a lead in the polling average and has had favorable trends in the polling average for months. You can call that a dumpster fire of a campaign if you want. But please provide an explanation for why Lake has the advantage when her peers in Dixon and Mastriano are getting blown out then. One would think that a dumpster fire of a campaign against the solid campaign Hobbs is conducting would yield similar results in states with similar partisanship.

Because Whitmer and Shapiro are not only stronger A-tier candidates but because MI and PA have more of a Dem background than a state that just has gone purple recently? Not to mention, Lake is literally a TV news anchor with top notch speaking skills, and decades of history in front of a camera and audiences. Mastriano and Dixon are pretty terrible in front of the camera, among other things.

My point is - again - no one can provide evidence as to what Hobbs is or isn't doing that is supposedly so bad outside of not debating? What else is she doing wrong? I'm trying to have a nuanced conversation here that isn't implying Hobbs is running a perfect campaign. But I see she's out campaigning, making stops, going to events, and she's up on TV more than Lake is, spending more money.

Meanwhile, Lake makes more media appearances, but makes no effort to appeal to the middle of the political spectrum, goes on TV and says more lies about election denial, and instead of talking about stuff that matters, she's holding press conferences that are an objective mess, fighting with reporters.

So where exactly is Lake running a good campaign here? It's like people have it in their heads that just because Lake does more media than that means she's running a superior campaign.

Not only that, but this forum reacts very differently when we get a Lake +4 poll than when we got a Hobbs +3 poll. Of the last 5 polls, Lake has led two, Hobbs has led two, and they've been tied in the 5th.

[Ferguson97]

Is wbrocks a member of the Kari Lake campaign team? wbrocks keeps posting clips that make me like Kari Lake more, lol

I feel safe in saying that you're not part of his target audience.

...a person who votes for D's or R depending on the election is not his target audience? Who is his audience - dem's who already agree with him and vote the same 100% of the time no matter what? Makes sense why his comments are so out of touch all of the time.


I think y'all need to realize the socially moderate lib econ moderate conservative is not the average swing voter. And y'all act like doubting some of the 2020 election is the most damning crime in humanity, when two of the democratic politicians I voted for, Hillary Clinton and Stacey Abrams, both deny the legitimacy of the person who beat them.

This is a lie.

[Mr. Smith]

Is wbrocks a member of the Kari Lake campaign team? wbrocks keeps posting clips that make me like Kari Lake more, lol

I feel safe in saying that you're not part of his target audience.

...a person who votes for D's or R depending on the election is not his target audience? Who is his audience - dem's who already agree with him and vote the same 100% of the time no matter what? Makes sense why his comments are so out of touch all of the time.


I think y'all need to realize the socially moderate lib econ moderate conservative is not the average swing voter. And y'all act like doubting some of the 2020 election is the most damning crime in humanity, when two of the democratic politicians I voted for, Hillary Clinton and Stacey Abrams, both deny the legitimacy of the person who beat them.

This is a lie.

Not entirely, but both cases would justified if they did outright.

[Aurelius]

And yet Lake openly campaigning with someone like Finchem is not being treated as an issue or harmful to her campaign - and yet Hobbs is the one making all the mistakes? It's like some of you want Lake to win at this point.

Stop being a hack for five seconds and recognize that people on here are talking about how it appears to AZ voters, not what they personally think.

[Aurelius]

Is wbrocks a member of the Kari Lake campaign team? wbrocks keeps posting clips that make me like Kari Lake more, lol

I feel safe in saying that you're not part of his target audience.

...a person who votes for D's or R depending on the election is not his target audience? Who is his audience - dem's who already agree with him and vote the same 100% of the time no matter what? Makes sense why his comments are so out of touch all of the time.


I think y'all need to realize the socially moderate lib econ moderate conservative is not the average swing voter. And y'all act like doubting some of the 2020 election is the most damning crime in humanity, when two of the democratic politicians I voted for, Hillary Clinton and Stacey Abrams, both deny the legitimacy of the person who beat them.

This is a lie.

Abrams refused to concede and continues to say she won the election.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

This is like what would happen in PA-GOV if the Dems nominated Malcom Kenyetta and Doug Mastriano had an IQ about 20 points higher and wore a wig to not look like a Nazi skinhead.

[gf20202]

Is wbrocks a member of the Kari Lake campaign team? wbrocks keeps posting clips that make me like Kari Lake more, lol

I feel safe in saying that you're not part of his target audience.

...a person who votes for D's or R depending on the election is not his target audience? Who is his audience - dem's who already agree with him and vote the same 100% of the time no matter what? Makes sense why his comments are so out of touch all of the time.


I think y'all need to realize the socially moderate lib econ moderate conservative is not the average swing voter. And y'all act like doubting some of the 2020 election is the most damning crime in humanity, when two of the democratic politicians I voted for, Hillary Clinton and Stacey Abrams, both deny the legitimacy of the person who beat them.

This is a lie.

Abrams refused to concede and continues to say she won the election.

Yeah and the sentence you are responding to said both Stacey Abrams AND Hillary Clinton both denied the legitimacy of the person who beat them. So the sentence is in fact a lie. The original poster could have easily just invoked Stacey Abrams, but they didn't. They lied or made an incredibly weird obvious factual error.

[SCNCmod]

From a very outside perspective (someone who has not followed the AZ Gov election, other than the snippets I see in articles or on the various news channels)...

It seems- Hobbs is the candidate to qualified to responsibly run the Governor's office, whereas Lake is sort of a fringe, flame thrower.  But on the other hand- due to Lake's background/experience as a media personality... she is obviously much better at navigating the media/on camera aspect of the campaign... and as you would expect from Lake's background, she is also more telegenic  (Lake sort of has the Kennedy/Nixon natural media advantage over Hobbs in this regard).

So the election certainly seems far from over.  It seems Hobbs started off Ahead, and Lake has been able to use her natural media talents to make a come back and pull slightly ahead- which has also been possibly aided  by Hobbs playing it too safe, trying to hold her early lead.  

But now that Lake seems to have pulled slightly ahead- it seems very likely that Hobbs will approach the closing month a little less cautiously- and likely pull it back to at least even.

Also- I imagine Lake's small lead in the "Polls" is partially due to ppl generally thinking (rightly or wrongly) that Lake has run the better campaign recently... But some ppl (enough to control the outcome if things stay close) ... may decide to sort of hold their nose and vote for Hobbs on election day- because in the end they may decide that even if they perceive Lake to have run a better campaign, they feel more secure with Hobbs actually being in charge of running the state responsibly  (almost in an economic sense- Hobbs is less likely to do something detrimental to the state that could adversely affect its economy, etc).

Stated differently- when undecided or swing voters, actually get ready to cast their votes- a majority of them may look at it as a choice between: a potentially reckless show pony... or a boring book worm. (If I were part of the Hobbs Team- that's the choice I would focus on driving into the minds of swing voters over the remaining month).

For those in AZ- this may not be the reality of the race... its just how it feels (overall) from an outsider's perspective.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Right now I think it's Lean R, but Hobbs is still very much in this and could def still win.

[Progressive Pessimist]

From a very outside perspective (someone who has not followed the AZ Gov election, other than the snippets I see in articles or on the various news channels)...

It seems- Hobbs is the candidate to qualified to responsibly run the Governor's office, whereas Lake is sort of a fringe, flame thrower.  But on the other hand- due to Lake's background/experience as a media personality... she is obviously much better at navigating the media/on camera aspect of the campaign... and as you would expect from Lake's background, she is also more telegenic  (Lake sort of has the Kennedy/Nixon natural media advantage over Hobbs in this regard).

So the election certainly seems far from over.  It seems Hobbs started off Ahead, and Lake has been able to use her natural media talents to make a come back and pull slightly ahead- which has also been possibly aided  by Hobbs playing it too safe, trying to hold her early lead.  

But now that Lake seems to have pulled slightly ahead- it seems very likely that Hobbs will approach the closing month a little less cautiously- and likely pull it back to at least even.

Also- I imagine Lake's small lead in the "Polls" is partially due to ppl generally thinking (rightly or wrongly) that Lake has run the better campaign recently... But some ppl (enough to control the outcome if things stay close) ... may decide to sort of hold their nose and vote for Hobbs on election day- because in the end they may decide that even if they perceive Lake to have run a better campaign, they feel more secure with Hobbs actually being in charge of running the state responsibly  (almost in an economic sense- Hobbs is less likely to do something detrimental to the state that could adversely affect its economy, etc).

Stated differently- when undecided or swing voters, actually get ready to cast their votes- a majority of them may look at it as a choice between: a potentially reckless show pony... or a boring book worm. (If I were part of the Hobbs Team- that's the choice I would focus on driving into the minds of swing voters over the remaining month).

For those in AZ- this may not be the reality of the race... its just how it feels (overall) from an outsider's perspective.

You're probably not far off. Arizona seems to be putting a lot of emphasis on personality over policy this year, from what it seems. And that's to both Kelly's and Lake's benefit...as frustrating as it is. But Arizona did vote for the less personality-filled candidate in 2020, so Hobbs still probably has a better chance than Masters at least.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Tulsi is gonna campaign for Lake: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/ex-democratic-rep-tulsi-gabbard-campaign-trump-backed-kari-lake-arizon-rcna52666

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It doesn't matter if Tulsi Gabby campaigns fir Lake Hobbs is leading in this poll, Rs have to peel of Latinos and blk voters not white voters that's what I keep telling users because the country is becoming more minority than white Abbott, DeWine and DeSantis has been able to do that but every other R hasn't

[Ferguson97]

Tulsi is gonna campaign for Lake: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2022-election/ex-democratic-rep-tulsi-gabbard-campaign-trump-backed-kari-lake-arizon-rcna52666

The 87 people in Arizona who like both Tulsi and Lake will be thrilled

[wbrocks67]

I feel like the irony of Hobbs going against Lake when she's literally the SOS, who defended the state from election denial attacks since November 2020, is still so stunning and deeply under-appreciated.