2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[BlueSwan]

Can anybody confirm Philly was counting through the night? I thought I heard that or read that. There should be a big vote dump this morning then, right? One that might cause the big networks to call PA / the election?

Let's hope so! This is getting ridiculous.

[DaleCooper]

Biden's lead in AZ now just shy ok 30K. What do you guys think?

From what I can gather, AZ is probably Trump's best shot at winning one of the four big remaining states but it's still not likely given how well he'll need to do with the remaining Maricopa votes.

[Rand]

Welcome to day 3,481 of Election Night 2020...

[Lord Halifax]

Biden's lead in AZ now just shy ok 30K. What do you guys think?

From what I can gather, AZ is probably Trump's best shot at winning one of the four big remaining states but it's still not likely given how well he'll need to do with the remaining Maricopa votes.

How many uncounted ballots are there?

[chickentitilater]

Meanwhile we have tons of Republican and Republican Leaning voters abandoning a sinking ship from AZ to GA in 2020...

We can't underestimate the power of the Lincoln Project, the McCain Family, etc in moving these margins....

Trump won more republicans this year than in 2016. There is no need to learn the wrong lesson.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Biden's lead in AZ now just shy ok 30K. What do you guys think?

From what I can gather, AZ is probably Trump's best shot at winning one of the four big remaining states but it's still not likely given how well he'll need to do with the remaining Maricopa votes.

How many uncounted ballots are there?

I believe there's about 170K remaining ballots.  Trump needs to win them by about 57-59%.  He's been running about four or five points behind that.  

It's going to be close.  As of right now, it looks as though Trump will fall just short, but today's update(s) should - SHOULD - be telling.  Another wave of ballots from Maricopa will reportedly drop around 11am EST (9 am MST). 

[President Johnson]

How likely is it Joe Biden bounces back in Arizona? It would be great if he can get back over 50%.

[chickentitilater]

This election is so weird. Record numbers of white people voting blue and record numbers of POC voting red.

[BlueSwan]

How likely is it Joe Biden bounces back in Arizona? It would be great if he can get back over 50%.

I guess not very likely?

[Middle-aged Europe]

[Rand]

This election is so weird. Record numbers of white people voting blue and record numbers of POC voting red.

A record number of Pieces of Crap did, indeed, vote red this year.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Idiot

https://twitter.com/mediaite/status/1324953722401804288

sh**t like this is why I'm 99% convinced Trump will remain president after Jan 20 and why I think any celebration and gloating should hold off until after that. These subversive traitors are going to do whatever it takes to stay in power. And the networks are 100% complicit in giving them enough leverage by entertaining their conspiracy theories and treating this race as if Trump can still win the vote count.

No pasaran!

[DaleCooper]

So, correct me if I'm wrong, but the networks are waiting on calling PA because it's theoretically possible that Trump can win 80% of the remaining ballots, most of which are coming from Allegheny and Philly? That's really where we're at now?

[T'Chenka]

So, correct me if I'm wrong, but the networks are waiting on calling PA because it's theoretically possible that Trump can win 80% of the remaining ballots, most of which are coming from Allegheny and Philly? That's really where we're at now?

Yep.

AND, "ballot counting has resumed in Pennsylvania" according to CNN a minute ago, but we were told Philly was going to be counting through the night? There's also no talk that I've seen of when we might expect a vote dump from somewhere in Pennsylvania, or when Philly might announce the votes they were supposed to be counting through the night.

CNN and the other networks don't think we're getting tired of waiting, apparently.

[Crumpets]

So, correct me if I'm wrong, but the networks are waiting on calling PA because it's theoretically possible that Trump can win 80% of the remaining ballots, most of which are coming from Allegheny and Philly? That's really where we're at now?

I think at least some of their logic is "if we call it now and it ends up going to recount while we didn't call Georgia because it's definitely going to recount, it'll look like a double standard. So let's wait until Biden's lead goes from 29K to 35K and then it'll be out of recount range and we won't have to care."

[T'Chenka]

So, correct me if I'm wrong, but the networks are waiting on calling PA because it's theoretically possible that Trump can win 80% of the remaining ballots, most of which are coming from Allegheny and Philly? That's really where we're at now?

I think at least some of their logic is "if we call it now and it ends up going to recount while we didn't call Georgia because it's definitely going to recount, it'll look like a double standard. So let's wait until Biden's lead goes from 29K to 35K and then it'll be out of recount range and we won't have to care."

I really hope that's true, because that means we'd only need...
.
- 7500 more votes counted
(@ Biden winning 80%)

or

- 8572 more votes counted
(@ Biden winning 70%)

or

- 10,000 more votes counted
(@ Biden winning 60%)

[wbrocks67]

This is getting ridiculous. We literally have 40-45K mail ins *just out of Allegheny and Philly* and Provisionals are breaking for.... Biden as well.

https://twitter.com/AllisonLHedges/status/1325049012853088257

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A rare non-AZ/GA/NV/PA post:

Even though the state of California hasn't finished counting its votes (and likely won't for quite a while), one of the bigger (both in a literal and a statistical sense) county flips of the election might be Inyo County.  



By area, Inyo is the second-largest in CA and ninth-largest nationwide. This is Death Valley country; it was a Trump +13 county in 2016 (though the almost 9.5% third-party showing makes it more difficult to analyze swings).

NYT currently has the county at >98% reporting and Biden leading by 49.1-48.5 (4,495-4,436).  It's a super tight margin, but if it holds, Biden would be the first Democrat to win here since 1964 and only the second since 1940.  And even in the event that it holds for Trump, it would be at least a ten to eleven point Democratic swing.  

Image and information source: Wikipedia

[GeorgiaModerate]

Saw this comment on Biden's speech last night:

https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/1324928494208491520

[T'Chenka]

Some (how many?) PA votes coming "in a few minutes". (CNN)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a bit of Georgia trivia.  Fulton County was originally three separate counties: the original Fulton (which before its creation was part of DeKalb County), Campbell County to its southwest, and Milton County to its north.  During the Great Depression, Campbell and Milton were combined into Fulton as an austerity measure; this is why Fulton has such a long skinny shape.

Milton County still retains some identity among residents (there are periodic movements for it to secede from Fulton and become Milton again).  Atlas alumnus J. Miles Coleman posted this about it:

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1324557763335364613

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Here's a bit of Georgia trivia.  Fulton County was originally three separate counties: the original Fulton (which before its creation was part of DeKalb County), Campbell County to its southwest, and Milton County to its north.  During the Great Depression, Campbell and Milton were combined into Fulton as an austerity measure; this is why Fulton has such a long skinny shape.

Milton County still retains some identity among residents (there are periodic movements for it to secede from Fulton and become Milton among).  Atlas alumnus J. Miles Coleman posted this about it:

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1232029950070284289

Ahhh! I was gonna ask you about Milton County, GM.  Budget Texas-looking-ass county....

[DaleCooper]

Some (how many?) PA votes coming "in a few minutes". (CNN)

Based on how things have been going the past couple days probably only a few thousand at most.

[wbrocks67]

CNN continuing to be very confusing in Philly. They are breaking down different batches but not being specific. They just said 18K provisionals. 20K "problem child" mail in ballots. But I believe that does not include the 20K *REGULAR* mail in ballots that have not shown up in totals yet either, that we've been waiting for since yesterday.

Alyson said 80K remaining total out of Philly, which could be possible since those 3 just add up to nearly 60K.

[DaleCooper]

This is getting ridiculous. We literally have 40-45K mail ins *just out of Allegheny and Philly* and Provisionals are breaking for.... Biden as well.

https://twitter.com/AllisonLHedges/status/1325049012853088257

If that's true then Biden is winning those provisional ballots by 15 points more than he's currently winning the county, though those are probably disproportionally if not entirely coming out of Pittsburgh.