2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[wbrocks67]

Michigan:

Biden 49.7
Trump 48.8

[GALeftist]

Biden says that they will flip at least 3 states per their data.
He also says that the margins in WI, MI, PA will be bigger than Trump's margins in 2016.

Am I looking to much into it or are they not so sure about AZ?

Edit: flip* not win

No you’re not. Arizona is going Trump IMO. Don’t tell that to anyone on here

Lord dude please stop. Doomering about a Trump win does not a prophet make. You were constantly whining about how Georgia is Titanium R and look what's happened.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

I don't mean to sound like a broken record here with Puerto Rico, but seriously, we just saw the first step toward a 51st state. It's a "piss or get off the pot" referendum, statehood or independence. Statehood is leading right now. The government can't be forced to act, but surely Democrats will want to get behind this to improve their position for the 2022 midterms and 2024. Why is no one talking about it?

Yeah, I guess that's a bright spot. Sort of forgot about that in all the hullabaloo. Hard for me to see its clearing the Senate though.

Mitch will make sure that's a non-starter. Democrats have to win a Senate majority with the current states for Puerto Rico to be granted statehood.

GA is going to be huge next month.

[MasterJedi]

Biden says that they will flip at least 3 states per their data.
He also says that the margins in WI, MI, PA will be bigger than Trump's margins in 2016.

Am I looking to much into it or are they not so sure about AZ?

Edit: flip* not win

No you’re not. Arizona is going Trump IMO. Don’t tell that to anyone on here

I mean you can’t expect anyone to listen to you anymore though, can you?

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Biden says that they will flip at least 3 states per their data.
He also says that the margins in WI, MI, PA will be bigger than Trump's margins in 2016.

Am I looking to much into it or are they not so sure about AZ?

Edit: flip* not win

No you’re not. Arizona is going Trump IMO. Don’t tell that to anyone on here

Biden sealed the deal in Arizona a long time ago, friend.

Stop.

[TopShelfGoal]

Other than Trump, John James and Tim Scott are the two Republicans that piss me off the most. I really hope he loses so that it doesn't encourage that.

[wbrocks67]

Biden now up nearly 50K in Michigan, nearly 1%.

Peters only down 7k now.

where are you getting this? its not updated on nytimes

DDHQ

Biden 2,630,415 (49.7%)
Trump 2,583,361 (48.8%)

Biden +47K, +0.9%

[Former President tack50]

I don't mean to sound like a broken record here with Puerto Rico, but seriously, we just saw the first step toward a 51st state. It's a "piss or get off the pot" referendum, statehood or independence. Statehood is leading right now. The government can't be forced to act, but surely Democrats will want to get behind this to improve their position for the 2022 midterms and 2024. Why is no one talking about it?

Worth noting that it seems the PR legislature is more likely than not to elect a pro-commonwealth majority (but I am not 100% sure on that). So statehood is by no means a guarantee, even if Dems somehow take the Senate in an upset.

[kwabbit]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

For them to go full-on that path, they'd have to sacrifice voters in the Rust Belt. I don't see how they'd be able to maintain that kind of coalition.

Trump was able to do both to some extent this time around. If rural Midwest can be fired up about some other culture war issue not revolving Hispanics, then maybe both can be had for the GOP. Perhaps this result was the focus on BLM to rile up the GOP base instead of immigration.

[SevenEleven]

Other than Trump, John James and Tim Scott are the two Republicans that piss me off the most. I really hope he loses so that it doesn't encourage that.

Gross, ngl.

[Alcibiades]

I think it’s safe to say it’s well and truly over for Trump in WI and MI.

[MillennialModerate]

Biden says that they will flip at least 3 states per their data.
He also says that the margins in WI, MI, PA will be bigger than Trump's margins in 2016.

Am I looking to much into it or are they not so sure about AZ?

Edit: flip* not win

No you’re not. Arizona is going Trump IMO. Don’t tell that to anyone on here

Biden sealed the deal in Arizona a long time ago, friend.

Stop.

Ironically only Fox believes that. The numbers are collapsing hard in AZ/NV in the reverse direction of a state like say a Michigan

[GALeftist]

I think it’s safe to say it’s well and truly over for Trump in WI and MI.

Then it's ball game. Biden wins.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Why haven't Arizona or Nevada reported anything more yet?

[charcuterie]

I really hope Peters is able to pull this one out Feeling good about Biden in MI though

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

I do think there is a real possibility here that maybe the reason Hispanic turnout in certain parts of the country has always been so low is because specifically conservative Hispanics have been less likely to vote. Though I'm not sure that really squares with what we're seeing in places like Dona Ana county in New Mexico or Imperial County in California, where the margins look at close to normal. Has the RGV lagged turnout even in those places and maybe we're just now seeing it finally catch up?

Even if that is the case though, how Donald Trump of all people somehow got them to turn out is beyond me, given you know *everything*. It's not like he's George Bush and actually cares about them. As I've said elsewhere, there's a lot that just doesn't make sense about the world anymore.

[redjohn]

Couldn't be prouder of my state. We've rejected this disaster of a President and ironically will kick him out with a similar to margin to his in 2016.

With WI and MI going for Biden, it's lights out for Trump.

[politics_king]

I'm about to take a break but just wanted to summarize what's up real quick -- let me know if I have anything wrong.

WI -- basically just got called for Biden
MI -- Biden has a lead, and the outstanding vote is mostly Detroit and mail-ins
AZ -- Biden has a solid lead, and the outstanding vote is mostly Phoenix and mail-ins
NV -- Biden has a lead, and the outstanding vote is mostly early vote from Vegas/Reno
======= Biden winning the above 4 states = 270 ==========
PA -- Biden is down and needs to win by a 3-1 margin, but the outstanding votes are primarily mail-in ballots from heavily-Democratic areas.
GA -- Biden is down and needs to win by a 2-1 margin, but the outstanding votes are primarily Atlanta and mail-ins
NC -- Biden is down and needs to win by a 3-1 margin, but the outstanding votes are primarily from Raleigh/Greensboro

ME -- unclear where the remaining votes are located, and unclear how the RCV would shake out, but Collins has probably held on
NC -- Cunningham is slightly underperforming Biden
MI -- Peters is substantially underperforming Biden
GA -- Perdue is above 50%, but will likely end below 50% given the outstanding vote.

Thank you General. Trump is the most politically dumb politician ever, if he would of embraced masks, took COVID seriously and pushed his supporters to vote by mail, he probably wins a landslide and has control of Congress. But nope, gotta be an idiot.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1324046305753260035?s=19

[The Free North]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

I think in the long-term, Hispanics will mirror the journey of Irish- and Italian-Americans, i.e. they will come to be seen as white, and accordingly vote in line with the white average.

This is the point i've been making for years. There will be variance as there was in prior groups, but the further you get away from the 1st generation of immigrants, the more fragmented the vote becomes as people vote instead on religiosity, economics, etc

[DrScholl]

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1324046305753260035?s=19

Good luck overturning a 20k vote margin.

[MaxQue]

Why haven't Arizona or Nevada reported anything more yet?

Nevada will seemingly report all the early votes received this week all together tomorrow morning.

[brucejoel99]

Couldn't be prouder of my state. We've rejected this disaster of a President and ironically will kick him out with a similar to margin to his in 2016.

With WI and MI going for Biden, it's lights out for Trump.

I wonder what that feels like.

[wbrocks67]

Montgomery County, PA 2016: Hillary +21
Montgomery County, PA 2020 (so far): Biden +23

Montco still has at least 55K votes mail ins to count, so could jump to Biden +25 at least. Another 4 pt shift in a big county.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I really hope Peters is able to pull this one out Feeling good about Biden in MI though

Peters is still going to win relatively easily.