2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[lfromnj]

Is there any chance at all that Gideon wins? I can't figure out who the remaining vote in Maine will favor.

You gotta think Collins needs to be in the 47-48 range for that to be likely for Gideon to win on IRV, although I'll defer to anyone who knows more

Also all of Cumberland is in for Maine, the rest of the state is still out although not sure how later ballots lean.

[The Free North]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609

People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

Massive push to drive up turnout across the country? And those counties have had atrocious turnout for years.

Told ya that lo turnout would reveal some shocks in areas with traditionally low turnout

Texas exit polls for hispanics were 59-40 Biden, if you assume urban hispanics voted Biden at a higher rate, you can easily get to 55-45 in rural south texas.

Unless you think the exit polls were fabricated as well.

[politics_king]

Pardon my french but, what the f*** is the hold up? Let's get a move on already it's 1 PM the following day with almost a complete stall since 3 AM last night.

Nevada won't count everything until tomorrow and PA should finish by Friday. We should know about AZ, GA & MI today.

[ObamaMichael]

Biden says that they will flip at least 3 states per their data.
He also says that the margins in WI, MI, PA will be bigger than Trump's margins in 2016.

Am I looking to much into it or are they not so sure about AZ?

Edit: flip* not win

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Control of the senate will likely hinge on the runoff in Georgia glad its Warnock vs Loeffler Cunningham looks toast and its looking really hard for Gideon to pull off a win in Maine but theirs a lot of votes left to count their so lets see

Uhh are you bad at math

If Gideon and Cunningham loses the Senate is over

Ah sorry I should have clarified I also meant hoping the remaining mail ins drag Perdue down to a runoff

Right. But don't try and have a conversation with MillenialModerate about Georgia.

[DaleCooper]

I don't mean to sound like a broken record here with Puerto Rico, but seriously, we just saw the first step toward a 51st state. It's a "piss or get off the pot" referendum, statehood or independence. Statehood is leading right now. The government can't be forced to act, but surely Democrats will want to get behind this to improve their position for the 2022 midterms and 2024. Why is no one talking about it?

The weirdness of the presidential race distracted from other important issues.

[lfromnj]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609

People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

Well turnout here is usually super awful so there were a lot of of hidden voters to begin with.

[wbrocks67]

Biden now up nearly 50K in Michigan, nearly 1%.

Peters only down 7k now.

[GALeftist]

I don't mean to sound like a broken record here with Puerto Rico, but seriously, we just saw the first step toward a 51st state. It's a "piss or get off the pot" referendum, statehood or independence. Statehood is leading right now. The government can't be forced to act, but surely Democrats will want to get behind this to improve their position for the 2022 midterms and 2024. Why is no one talking about it?

Yeah, I guess that's a bright spot. Sort of forgot about that in all the hullabaloo. Hard for me to see its clearing the Senate though.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I'm about to take a break but just wanted to summarize what's up real quick -- let me know if I have anything wrong.

WI -- basically just got called for Biden
MI -- Biden has a lead, and the outstanding vote is mostly Detroit and mail-ins
AZ -- Biden has a solid lead, and the outstanding vote is mostly Phoenix and mail-ins
NV -- Biden has a lead, and the outstanding vote is mostly early vote from Vegas/Reno
======= Biden winning the above 4 states = 270 ==========
PA -- Biden is down and needs to win by a 3-1 margin, but the outstanding votes are primarily mail-in ballots from heavily-Democratic areas.
GA -- Biden is down and needs to win by a 2-1 margin, but the outstanding votes are primarily Atlanta and mail-ins
NC -- Biden is down and needs to win by a 3-1 margin, but the outstanding votes are primarily from Raleigh/Greensboro

ME -- unclear where the remaining votes are located, and unclear how the RCV would shake out, but Collins has probably held on
NC -- Cunningham is slightly underperforming Biden
MI -- Peters is substantially underperforming Biden
GA -- Perdue is above 50%, but will likely end below 50% given the outstanding vote.

[DrScholl]

There are only 300 votes left to count in Wisconsin.

[DaleCooper]

Biden says that they will flip at least 3 states per their data.
He also says that the margins in WI, MI, PA will be bigger than Trump's margins in 2016.

Am I looking to much into it or are they not so sure about AZ?

Edit: flip* not win

It's probably that Arizona has already been called.

[UncleSam]

Biden now up nearly 50K in Michigan, nearly 1%.

Peters only down 7k now.

Do we know how many outstanding votes there are in Wayne and Grand Rapids?

Antrim is obviously a counting error that will favor Rs by around 7k net votes when it's corrected.

[lfromnj]

If John James wins blame Oakland County liberals who feel guilty and wanted to pay reparations in some form.

[MillennialModerate]

Biden says that they will flip at least 3 states per their data.
He also says that the margins in WI, MI, PA will be bigger than Trump's margins in 2016.

Am I looking to much into it or are they not so sure about AZ?

Edit: flip* not win

No you’re not. Arizona is going Trump IMO. Don’t tell that to anyone on here

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Biden now up nearly 50K in Michigan, nearly 1%.

Peters only down 7k now.

Will Peters lose?

[kwabbit]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

[Bootes Void]

Peters might win by a few thousand votes when said and done. most is still in Wayne County

[Angel of Death]

I don't mean to sound like a broken record here with Puerto Rico, but seriously, we just saw the first step toward a 51st state. It's a "piss or get off the pot" referendum, statehood or independence. Statehood is leading right now. The government can't be forced to act, but surely Democrats will want to get behind this to improve their position for the 2022 midterms and 2024. Why is no one talking about it?

Why do people keep stating that independence is an option in the referendum? It's simply "statehood yes or no".

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

For them to go full-on that path, they'd have to sacrifice voters in the Rust Belt. I don't see how they'd be able to maintain that kind of coalition.

[MillennialModerate]

Biden now up nearly 50K in Michigan, nearly 1%.

Peters only down 7k now.

Will Peters lose?

It’s possible he holds on but I’d say it’s a jump ball which puts senate out of play for 6 years

[Alcibiades]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

I think in the long-term, Hispanics will mirror the journey of Irish- and Italian-Americans, i.e. they will come to be seen as white, and accordingly vote in line with the white average.

[Kuumo]

I don't mean to sound like a broken record here with Puerto Rico, but seriously, we just saw the first step toward a 51st state. It's a "piss or get off the pot" referendum, statehood or independence. Statehood is leading right now. The government can't be forced to act, but surely Democrats will want to get behind this to improve their position for the 2022 midterms and 2024. Why is no one talking about it?

Yeah, I guess that's a bright spot. Sort of forgot about that in all the hullabaloo. Hard for me to see its clearing the Senate though.

Mitch will make sure that's a non-starter. Democrats have to win a Senate majority with the current states for Puerto Rico to be granted statehood.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288
These numbers seem impossible

Trump likely converted a lot of Hispanic Clinton voters in these counties.

Except he didn't. That's what I find weird. Biden retained the same number of votes as her, just tens of thousands of net-new Trumpers emerged.

Take Hidalgo County, TX.

https://twitter.com/AlxThomp/status/1324022658137284609
People are claiming I am a conspiracy theorist, but I am genuinely curious where these voters came from. It's just surprising to me. I get Miami Dade, the Cuban trends were clear. But this?

These counties in South Texas have always had anemic turnout. If they're engaged, turnouts gonna boom. Trump's gain was a mix of persuasion and turnout out low propensity voters for him. But Biden's still going to gain votes if turnout increases that much.

It just seems odd bc Trump put no effort into TX (like he did FL)

He doesn't have to personally go to TX to attract these voters. My guess is that these voters may have liked Trump's message outside of immigration in 2016 but his focus on immigration drove them away. Now that he stopped talking about it they flocked to him.

The Tejanos were always a group that could swing R, especially with Trump at the top of the ticket. They're working class and strongly disconnected from the pro-suburbanite message of the Biden campaign. This was definitely going on for a while. Dave Wasserman wouldn't shut up about it and Kamala Harris made a last minute trip to McAllen.

It's long been said that Hispanics were a natural constituency for the GOP if they stopped talking about immigration. Perhaps there was some truth to that.

Didn't Bush actually win Tejanos? Like Hillary was obviously uniquely strong with Latinos, but this isn't 2004 all over again.

[Bootes Void]

Biden now up nearly 50K in Michigan, nearly 1%.

Peters only down 7k now.

where are you getting this? its not updated on nytimes