2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[pppolitics]

GA has about 400K ballots oustanding, majoirty of which are Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, with some in Cobb and Gwinnett and the mid-sized cities (Dougherty, Chatham, Bibb, Muscogee). There are virtually no votes left in R counties.  

Just out of curiosity...why are Dems still high on Georgia?  Trump has a 100k lead with >90% of the vote reporting, and NYT has Fulton and Gwinnett as nearly fully-in.  The only outstanding vote for Dems seem to spread out between DeKalb, Muscogee, Chatham, Richmond and Bibb, but these are all north of 80% reported already.

Biden probably closes the margin some, but him flipping it this late in the count seems very unlikely to me.   

There is like ~127K out just from Fulton and DeKalb. I don't think the % are taking into account that its all VBM.

Given Biden is currently down about 100k statewide, that should be doable, right?

Yes, if current trends hold in the remaining vote, Biden would be on track for a narrow win.  But there's still a lot left to count.

I'll take it.

...anything to take the orange con man out of the white house.

[forsythvoter]

In theory, yes. If those remaining ballots follow same distribution as the counted ballots in their counties, Biden would end up with about a 30K lead. While a big chunk of these are mail-in votes which lean even more D than the other votes, this is not guaranteed to be the case which is why it's a tossup.

GA has about 400K ballots oustanding, majoirty of which are Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, with some in Cobb and Gwinnett and the mid-sized cities (Dougherty, Chatham, Bibb, Muscogee). There are virtually no votes left in R counties.  

Just out of curiosity...why are Dems still high on Georgia?  Trump has a 100k lead with >90% of the vote reporting, and NYT has Fulton and Gwinnett as nearly fully-in.  The only outstanding vote for Dems seem to spread out between DeKalb, Muscogee, Chatham, Richmond and Bibb, but these are all north of 80% reported already.

Biden probably closes the margin some, but him flipping it this late in the count seems very unlikely to me.   

There is like ~127K out just from Fulton and DeKalb. I don't think the % are taking into account that its all VBM.

Given Biden is currently down about 100k statewide, that should be doable, right?

[n1240]

Philadelphia new mail-in batch

Biden 40984
Trump 3329

Biden wins these by 85%, approximately 160k uncounted mail in the county.

Ugh, wut? Biden is still trialing by half a million in PA. He's gotta find them somewhere. Otherwise, we may actually end up with the HORRIBLE 270 map if GA doesn't flip. That's giving me a lot of anxiety. I mean, it would be a great Hollywood blockbuster, but we have a literal fascist in the WH who must go.

Biden is in very good position. Just looking at some of largest counties, Biden can net 130k from Philly, 130k in Allegheny, 45k from Montgomery, 40k from Bucks, 35k from Chester, 20k from Delaware. Might try and work on more detailed counts for rest of counties but Biden will still win absentee vote in counties that are pretty pro Trump, the moderate/small counties can probably make up the remaining 150k needed to overcome Trump's margin.

[wbrocks67]

Philadelphia new mail-in batch

Biden 40984
Trump 3329

Biden wins these by 85%, approximately 160k uncounted mail in the county.

Ugh, wut? Biden is still trialing by half a million in PA. He's gotta find them somewhere. Otherwise, we may actually end up with the HORRIBLE 270 map if GA doesn't flip. That's giving me a lot of anxiety. I mean, it would be a great Hollywood blockbuster, but we have a literal fascist in the WH who must go.

There's still 160K out in Philly, 160K out in Allegheny, 50K out in Chester, 66K out in Montco. If those go 80% for Biden, that's 360K netted votes right there at least.

[Sir Mohamed]

Philadelphia new mail-in batch

Biden 40984
Trump 3329

Biden wins these by 85%, approximately 160k uncounted mail in the county.

Ugh, wut? Biden is still trialing by half a million in PA. He's gotta find them somewhere. Otherwise, we may actually end up with the HORRIBLE 270 map if GA doesn't flip. That's giving me a lot of anxiety. I mean, it would be a great Hollywood blockbuster, but we have a literal fascist in the WH who must go.

I’m sorry, what? This is the benchmark he needs.

Sure, better than Trump winning, but that's so fragile. One state with results challenged or one damn faithless elector, and this ends up in a total mess, making us a huge laughingstock in the world that will make 2000 look like peanuts. I wouldn't even be sure that both Biden and Harris get the 270 EVs. So plz give us a little more room.

[wbrocks67]

Also, there is obviously an unknown number of ballots that arrived last night by 8pm.

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324004491612618752?s=19

Now flagged by Twitter

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The term "latinx" needs to never be uttered by another Democratic politician or anyone affiliated with the Democratic party ever again. It has always felt weird to me that white liberals were imposing a term on a minority community which the the minority community seems to have no interest in.

I get the reason why some idiots use Latinx, but really if you want a non-gendered word to use in English, why not Latin?

[Podgy the Bear]

What is up in the Senate race in MI?

Not worried about Peters.  Running somewhat behind Biden, but he will make it.

Regarding ME, major ticket splitting appears to be in play in favor of Collins.  But she is running below 50 right now.

What would the next step be if Collins ends up with say 49%?

Would go to ranked choice voting--and I assume she would prevail.  Gideon has a 6 point deficit to make up.  Hopefully, she can close it and win it in the RCV.

[2952-0-0]

What is up in the Senate race in MI?

Not worried about Peters.  Running somewhat behind Biden, but he will make it.

Regarding ME, major ticket splitting appears to be in play in favor of Collins.  But she is running below 50 right now.

What would the next step be if Collins ends up with say 49%?

Would go to ranked choice voting--and I assume she would prevail.  Gideon has a 6 point deficit to make up.  Hopefully, she can close it and win it in the RCV.

A margin of that size, and with the frontrunner at 49%, very rarely gets overturned.

[Hassan 2022]

Why the hell are people having a debate about the semantics of Latin/Latino/Latinx, when that has absolutely nothing to do with why Biden significantly underperformed among FL and TX Latinos?

[RINO Tom]

Why the hell are people having a debate about the semantics of Latin/Latino/Latinx, when that has absolutely nothing to do with why Biden significantly underperformed among FL and TX Latinos?

Why did he?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Why the hell are people having a debate about the semantics of Latin/Latino/Latinx, when that has absolutely nothing to do with why Biden significantly underperformed among FL and TX Latinos?

I think it's just (a) a natural response to some rather surprising trends and (b) there's not a whole lot going on right now worth discussing outside of some vote batches trickling in.  

[Panda Express]

PR Spin time

Trump campaign officials tell reporters that "if all legally cast ballots are counted, we believe the president will win." They continue to describe Fox News, AP calls of Arizona for Biden as "just plain wrong."

"If we count all legal ballots, the president wins,” Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien said on a call with reporters, and took no questions.The call came hours after Trump said he wanted to stop vote counting.

In a press briefing, Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, Biden's campaign manager, says, "Joe Biden is on track to win this election, and he will be the next president of the United States."

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

But...but moderate heroes!

https://twitter.com/davidminpdx/status/1323855987338563585
Let this be the death of third-way DLC politics.

[Astatine]

What is up in the Senate race in MI?

Not worried about Peters.  Running somewhat behind Biden, but he will make it.

Regarding ME, major ticket splitting appears to be in play in favor of Collins.  But she is running below 50 right now.

What would the next step be if Collins ends up with say 49%?

Would go to ranked choice voting--and I assume she would prevail.  Gideon has a 6 point deficit to make up.  Hopefully, she can close it and win it in the RCV.

A margin of that size, and with the frontrunner at 49%, very rarely gets overturned.

Yup, Savage is at ~5 %, Linn at 1 %, hard to see Gideon winning.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/LiamWBZ/status/1324005540004057090?s=19

If this is correct my god

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Biden and Trump's numbers for Antrim County, MI, must be flipped, right?

[Hassan 2022]

Why the hell are people having a debate about the semantics of Latin/Latino/Latinx, when that has absolutely nothing to do with why Biden significantly underperformed among FL and TX Latinos?

Why did he?

Biden clearly failed at outreach, specifically in Florida and Texas. But I don't think that has to do with a specific, hyperfocused backlash to the use of the term Latinx.

[Hnv1]

Why is Trump insisting in AZ? there's nothing there for him

[Hope For A New Era]

fink nooooo

[MillennialModerate]

Is Susan Collins a lock to win re-election? Just woke up recently

Yes. You’d have to be deranged to think otherwise

[Person Man]

fink nooooo

Huh?

[Hope For A New Era]

fink nooooo

Huh?

IA-01

[GALeftist]

fink nooooo

Huh?

Finkenauer lost in IA-01.