2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Ok what happened in Antrim county MI? It was Trump +29 and now Biden +26

I noticed this earlier:

For more Michigan screwiness, the NYT map has Biden leading Antrim County (along the northwestern edge of the "mitten") 62.5-32.3 with >98% of the vote reported.

This is a solidly Republican county.  It went for Trump by +28.4 in 2016.  

Fairly certain someone plugged in the numbers backwards (though, as I said before: after the last 12-hours, a 58 pt. swing? SURE!!!! WHY NOT?!)

Just checked the Michigan SOS site.  The .pdf for unofficial 2020 results has the same numbers.  Still, I'm near-100% certain that someone screwed up these numbers (likely swapped them).  There's no way that this county swung almost sixty points.  

[7,052,770]

What time are we expecting the remaining calls?

[Agonized-Statism]

270-268. I predicted this for months but changed at the last minute. This will be the most violent, chaotic election since 1876.

[Scottholes 2.0]

Also, Democrats need to back off the police. They are humans just like everyone else. They are not to blame for every black person's problem. Hold them accountable, threatening them is not working. A lot of cops voted Trump overwhelmingly.

[/b]

As a black person, I actually find your post to be offensive and untrue. Call me an SJW, but you'll never know what it's like to be black. Just. Stop. Biden is winning, so clearly this "SJW nonsense" must be working.

I agree with this sentiment.  Too many white people are quick with this kind of senseless retort.  I'm white, and I'm gay.  Straight people will never know what it's like to be in my shoes, and that shows all too often.

Thank you!

[wbrocks67]

I’m starting to think something stinks here

https://twitter.com/DavidManel/status/1323921182622732288

These numbers seem impossible

Yeah, it just doesn't seem to add up.

[BlueSwan]

Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

He has the machismo thing going for him. I will get a lot of sh*t for saying this, but Biden ran a very feminine campaign, advocating mask wearing, not even doing GOTV, etc. It doesn't play in working class minority neighborhoods. Can you think of a less feminine music genre than rap?

I don't think Biden running a "feminine" campaign has got anything much to do with it, but I totally agree with you about Trump's macho appeal. This factor should not be underestimated. There really isn't much rational thought behind voting for Trump for the VAST majority of Trump voters, I believe. Sure, they can provide rationalizations, but I don't think a single of those rationalizations are the true reason why they vote for him.

This is also why the educated elite have never been able to understand why people would vote for Trump since the educated elite typically finds ultra macho behaviour primitive and off-putting. Trumps behaviour is a feature, not a bug. This is also why it is far from certain that a DeSantis or Cotton or whoever would be able to carry the torch for Trumpism going forward.

Cut it out. Saying that Latinos/Black are stupid and vote because muh "primitive macho behaviour"... while "educated" whites voting rationally. WTF are saying, man? It is so f**king racist.

Except that is not what I am saying at all. Infact I don't even mention race in that post. Trumps macho behaviour first and foremost appeals to less educated men, this is known fact. Also, this is first and foremost WHITE men, but obviously not exclusively white men.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

What is Trump's path at this point?

[Suburbia]

Also, Democrats need to back off the police. They are humans just like everyone else. They are not to blame for every black person's problem. Hold them accountable, threatening them is not working. A lot of cops voted Trump overwhelmingly.

[/b]

As a black person, I actually find your post to be offensive and untrue. Call me an SJW, but you'll never know what it's like to be black. Just. Stop. Biden is winning, so clearly this "SJW nonsense" must be working.

Democrats still alienated cops, you are going to need them to get legislation done

[Silent Hunter]

What is Trump's path at this point?

To the courthouse and then to the prison.

[ultraviolet]

What is Trump's path at this point?

Surprise win in Nevada, faithless electors, or use of the courts in some way

[Suburbia]

Also, Democrats need to back off the police. They are humans just like everyone else. They are not to blame for every black person's problem. Hold them accountable, threatening them is not working. A lot of cops voted Trump overwhelmingly.

A lot of cops did vote for Trump, I know this as a personal fact.

However, it's completely false to suggest that Democrats are going after police.

Although it's something that was suggested and looks like it might have had some effect

There's no doubt that the falsehood did resonate with cops.  No doubt at all.  That doesn't make it any less false.

It took out Max Rose, a rising star. When a police force sides with one party, its not good for the country.

[BlueSwan]

I'm super tired so I might have mentioned this before, but the way this result is looking right now is pretty much a dream result for moderate republicans. They get rid of Trump and at least have a chance at taking the party in a direction away from Trumpism, while holding the senate and effectively making Biden a lame duck president. On the other hand, it could just pave the way for Alex Jones 2024 or even Q himself.

IF things hold as they are, I'm quite pleased.  I will say, though, that I'm saddened some of my favorite Democrats in the House lost last night.  

I haven't even paid attention to the house yet. Which ones were you sad to see lose?

[Calthrina950]

Trump got annihilated in Colorado. 14 point win with the remaining ballots favoring Dems

Is it enough to flip CO-3?

I don't think so. Boebert has been leading by a stubborn 5% margin for hours now, and I don't think Mitsch-Bush is going to be able to make it up. The defeats of Peterson, Torres-Small, Horn, and other such Democrats gives credence to my belief that it will be a Republican hold. Moreover-as I noted-Biden was unable to restore Democratic strength in Southern Colorado to pre-2016 levels, and that should work to Boebert's advantage.

I'm pretty much willing to call Boebert as the winner in CO-03 at this point. Mitsch-Bush has not conceded the race, but Boebert claimed victory last night and the local stations here seem to be treating her as the presumptive winner. This year has ushered in a very disappointing result for Democrats in the House of Representatives.

[͘]

What is Trump's path at this point?

Trump will be helped by something that starts with one or two syllables.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I'm super tired so I might have mentioned this before, but the way this result is looking right now is pretty much a dream result for moderate republicans. They get rid of Trump and at least have a chance at taking the party in a direction away from Trumpism, while holding the senate and effectively making Biden a lame duck president. On the other hand, it could just pave the way for Alex Jones 2024 or even Q himself.

IF things hold as they are, I'm quite pleased.  I will say, though, that I'm saddened some of my favorite Democrats in the House lost last night.  

I haven't even paid attention to the house yet. Which ones were you sad to see lose?

Horn, Cunningham, Shalala, and Peterson all lost. The Blue Dog/New Dem coalition is going to be a little smaller next year.

[Zanas]

Oh my goodness Peters is back 36,000 behind

[wbrocks67]

Is there any chance we might get NC?

It seems possible. There are still ~120,000 votes out from primary blue counties (absentee/mail too), and they can keep counting votes that come in until 11/12

[BlueSwan]

Trumps most realistic path outside of stealing the election, seems to be Nevada + Pennsylvania + North Carolina + Georgia. Wisconsin and Michigan seems very likely to be gone.

[Horus]

Also, Democrats need to back off the police. They are humans just like everyone else. They are not to blame for every black person's problem. Hold them accountable, threatening them is not working. A lot of cops voted Trump overwhelmingly.

A lot of cops did vote for Trump, I know this as a personal fact.

However, it's completely false to suggest that Democrats are going after police.

Although it's something that was suggested and looks like it might have had some effect

There's no doubt that the falsehood did resonate with cops.  No doubt at all.  That doesn't make it any less false.

It took out Max Rose, a rising star. When a police force sides with one party, its not good for the country.

Max Rose losing is definitely a bright spot for Democrats. He was awful.

[forza nocta]

Is Susan Collins a lock to win re-election? Just woke up recently

[wbrocks67]

Chester PA recent mail dump

Biden 24570 (80.8%)
Trump 5447 (17.9%)

50k mail-in outstanding in the county.

if all of these dumps are as pro-Biden as this, things are looking good.

[wbrocks67]

Is Susan Collins a lock to win re-election? Just woke up recently

Depends on how much of the vote is out in Maine. Do we know?

[MATTROSE94]

Is Susan Collins a lock to win re-election? Just woke up recently

Seems likely.

[DaleCooper]

Trumps most realistic path outside of stealing the election, seems to be Nevada + Pennsylvania + North Carolina + Georgia. Wisconsin and Michigan seems very likely to be gone.

Realistically, I think Nevada is gone too. I don't think Trump is going to win a majority of the 100,000 absentee ballots (75% of which are from Clark County).

[The Free North]

Any ideas where the vote in Maine is going to come from? Is Collins a lock there?