2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/TylerDinucci/status/1323718340594917376?s=19

[Non Swing Voter]

Tick tock. Not much time left for Trump to get to 400,000.

Or even 300k.

To clarify, Trump doesn't necessarily need +300k or +400k to win FL; he could win it with fewer. Failing to reach those targets makes the road much more difficult and likely makes him the underdog, however.

He's definitely not making it to either of those numbers IMO.  Unless the updates aren't close to current.

And how many raw votes are there? There were 9.4 in 16 and 8 and change in 18. We are getting just south of 11 now. A 400k deficit probably matters even less now.

The turnout is pretty stunning.  People here did say it would be over 11 million when all was said and done and I didn't believe it but here we are.

[Ferguson97]

What's Arizona looking like?

[Panda Express]

With the latest AZ update (bad news for Trump), AZ flipped from Trump to Biden on PredictIt

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

With the latest AZ update (bad news for Trump), AZ flipped from Trump to Biden on PredictIt

What update was that, Panda?

[new_patomic]

With the latest AZ update (bad news for Trump), AZ flipped from Trump to Biden on PredictIt

Love seeing that green arrow

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1323679852394958853

To me this is probably the single worst tweet for Trump I've seen today.

[Thomas D]

What's Arizona looking like?

Like a square with a slanted bottom

[mardigrappa]

Why republicans are being suddenly confident about Arizona is beyond me.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1323679852394958853

To me this is probably the single worst tweet for Trump I've seen today.

Both him and Casey were worried about PA four years ago. They seem very happy this time.

[roxas11]

After 27 pages or so, what’s the gist of how Election Day voting is looking for Biden?  Any reason for me to doom, or is it looking good for us?

To being Honest it looks like the dems are better shape on election day than I expected them to be

the GOP was turning out big earlier in the day but as the day has gone on they started to slow down.
Trump need insane turnout from republicans in other to win and  based on what I have seen so far their turnout is simply not good enough

maybe things will change but as of now I would say that trump is in big trouble if things continue going in the current direction

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1323679852394958853

To me this is probably the single worst tweet for Trump I've seen today.

I have mixed feelings about Rendell's politics, but he knows this state as well as anybody.

[Hammy]

Why republicans are being suddenly confident about Arizona is beyond me.

Same misunderstanding of the numbers that had me worry earlier. Except most people aren't new to following ED vote and need something to desperately hold on to.

[psychprofessor]

In PA Montgomery County, the state’s largest suburban county, total turnout could reach nearly 90 percent of registered voters, up from roughly 77 percent in 2016, County Dem chairman Joe Foster told me

[ExSky]

Why republicans are being suddenly confident about Arizona is beyond me.

Posturing to feel better.

[Lambsbread]

https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1323679852394958853

To me this is probably the single worst tweet for Trump I've seen today.

Nut.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1323679852394958853

To me this is probably the single worst tweet for Trump I've seen today.

I have mixed feelings about Rendell's politics, but he knows this state as well as anybody.

Can't disagree with a guy who chucked snowballs at Santa.  

[Young Conservative]

Quite confused why people think these Miami numbers are good for Biden.

E-day is still underperforming partisan registration in Miami and early voting (Early +VBM). The biggest warning signs in Florida remain south Florida for Democrats, but the GOP should be concerned about suburban Orlando and Jax.  IF you want to be optimistic for Bide, cite Seminole county, not Miami-Dade.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

This is a great link to track how turnout relative to 2016 looks by partisan registration. Run by a GOP hack, but the data is solid, just a little delayed.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/mitchellreports/status/1323679852394958853

To me this is probably the single worst tweet for Trump I've seen today.

I have mixed feelings about Rendell's politics, but he knows this state as well as anybody.

Right the numbers look good on their surface but I totally trust Rendell's judgment on this.  He also seems cautious after last time.  This tells me Biden is probably genuinely in the lead in PA.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'm not saying it's over, but I am saying I need to go get that Woodbury quote ready.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

PA Dems are saying Montgomery County (Clinton +20) could hit 90% turnout. That would be up from 77% in 2016.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

I'm not saying it's over, but I am saying I need to go get that Woodbury quote ready.

Get ‘Em all ready

[Non Swing Voter]

Quite confused why people think these Miami numbers are good for Biden.

E-day is still underperforming partisan registration in Miami and early voting (Early +VBM). The biggest warning signs in Florida remain south Florida for Democrats, but the GOP should be concerned about suburban Orlando and Jax.  IF you want to be optimistic for Bide, cite Seminole county, not Miami-Dade.

https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/

This is a great link to track how turnout relative to 2016 looks by partisan registration. Run by a GOP hack, but the data is solid, just a little delayed.

For me I just generally like that South Florida turnout is up a lot.  I feel like independents will probably lean Biden there and Republicans are more likely to crossover in places like Broward.  It just seems like the overall electorate is more urban/suburban than last time.

[Ljube]

Still no numbers from Pennsylvania?

[Non Swing Voter]

PA Dems are saying Montgomery County (Clinton +20) could hit 90% turnout. That would be up from 77% in 2016.

JFC, the suburbs hate Trump.  This is just pure rage voting at this point.