2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Panda Express]

This doesn't seem good does it ?

Indies lean noticeably D in AZ

[WD]

I just. I just can't with this dude.

https://twitter.com/Comey/status/1323637174911250438

This guy needs to go away

[Holmes]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1323680180569714688

This doesn't seem good does it ?

Who knows? Just gotta wait until the votes are counted. If Maricopa Republicans vote like Orange County, CA Republicans, it should be fine.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Anecdotal evidence: Looks like strong morning turnout at my Republican-leaning precinct and a couple others I drove by this morning.

[Non Swing Voter]

Does James Comey think we all forgot about the stunt he pulled in 2016?  Just because Trump's an ungrateful prick who has since shunned him doesn't mean we're taking him in.

[GeneralMacArthur]

https://twitter.com/davecatanese/status/1323664834706186240?s=21

Reaganite Texas will stay Republican

Sounds like more ultra-conservative Biden estimates to me.  I expect Trump to surpass all those margins today, but turnout is going to matter more than anything.

[Non Swing Voter]

I think it's clear that TURNOUT IS STRONG EVERYWHERE.  Now even Miami Dade.

[Gren]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323678484493983746?s=20

Whew boy the GOP turnout is starting to fade hard.

You seem optimistic about Biden's chances in FL. Can you please elaborate?

Im not as optimistic as him but I feel good about it atm

Basically the GOP needs supposedly about 400k raw vote lead to win comfortably, their main push is typicially in the morning and they are still at only a tad over 100k margin.

And on top this number has no Miami-Dade turnout which according to the Miami Herald is beating expectations.

Thanks. I hope you're right.

[ExSky]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323678484493983746?s=20

Whew boy the GOP turnout is starting to fade hard.

You seem optimistic about Biden's chances in FL. Can you please elaborate?

Dont know how you can see these numbers and not be optimistic. The Republican E Day push that was so touted is not materializing as much as anticipated. NPAs are conservatively breaking 55-45 to Biden and there are way more R > D voters than D > R voters.

Keep in mind that these ballot returns are without a Host of counties that will overall lean a bit towards Biden as well. And Florida Dems vote towards the end of the day while Florida GOP votes early on E Day.

Of course I don’t have any official metrics but all of that together is making me increasingly confident.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

The main reason I'm optimistic about Florida is the rash of district-level polls there showing significant erosion of Trump's support.  While these didn't include all types of districts, it's very hard to see him making that up elsewhere.

[Brittain33]

What is Costa’s evidence about Pennsylvania

[jd7171]

Per CNN, southeastern PA is looking really bad for Trump while the southwest is on par with 2016.

Well I’m sure Alleghany is looking like a disaster for Trump.

They said Pittsburgh area, which is more than just Allegheny. I have no doubt that Biden will improve over Hillary in Allegheny.

I'm very curious what the margin in Westmoreland ends up looking like. Obviously no way Biden wins there, but I do think he could get over 40% of the vote on a good night.

I feel that's the key for him in SW PA...just reduce the margins by a decent amount. Don't lose counties by about 40 points like Clinton did.

[RI]

Total FL turnout has almost certainly crossed 10 million at this point. First time ever for a non-CA state.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Per CNN, southeastern PA is looking really bad for Trump while the southwest is on par with 2016.

Well I’m sure Alleghany is looking like a disaster for Trump.

They said Pittsburgh area, which is more than just Allegheny. I have no doubt that Biden will improve over Hillary in Allegheny.

I'm very curious what the margin in Westmoreland ends up looking like. Obviously no way Biden wins there, but I do think he could get over 40% of the vote on a good night.

I feel that's the key for him in SW PA...just reduce the margins by a decent amount. Don't lose counties by about 40 points like Clinton did.

Yup.  It's a bit like in the solid states: you don't even need to get close -- any movement in your favor is beneficial.

[Bootes Void]

Total FL turnout has almost certainly crossed 10 million at this point. First time ever for a non-CA state.

It's probably way more than as Miami, Sarasota and Seminole and a few other counties haven't been updated

[Gren]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323678484493983746?s=20

Whew boy the GOP turnout is starting to fade hard.

You seem optimistic about Biden's chances in FL. Can you please elaborate?

Dont know how you can see these numbers and not be optimistic. The Republican E Day push that was so touted is not materializing as much as anticipated. NPAs are conservatively breaking 55-45 to Biden and there are way more R > D voters than D > R voters.

Keep in mind that these ballot returns are without a Host of counties that will overall lean a bit towards Biden as well. And Florida Dems vote towards the end of the day while Florida GOP votes early on E Day.

Of course I don’t have any official metrics but all of that together is making me increasingly confident.  

It's not that I'm not optimistic. It's just that I am not at all familiar with the voting dynamics at play here. Your points seem solid, so hope they end up being correct.

[Bojack Horseman]

Mlive reports that Kalamazoo County is well on its way to record turnout.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323685103793590273?s=20

[RI]

Guam update (61% partially reporting, 14k total votes): margin stays pretty consistent since last update at Biden 55.7, Trump 41.5.

[brucejoel99]

Does James Comey think we all forgot about the stunt he pulled in 2016?  Just because Trump's an ungrateful prick who has since shunned him doesn't mean we're taking him in.

https://twitter.com/KNOWSTONE13/status/1323638322271571969

[Non Swing Voter]

Do any states besides Florida report turnout numbers during the day?  Particularly Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin?

[Hammy]

So far the numbers seem to support Biden's narrow early vote leads getting overwhelmed by election day turnout.

[jd7171]

Per CNN, southeastern PA is looking really bad for Trump while the southwest is on par with 2016.

Well I’m sure Alleghany is looking like a disaster for Trump.

They said Pittsburgh area, which is more than just Allegheny. I have no doubt that Biden will improve over Hillary in Allegheny.

I'm very curious what the margin in Westmoreland ends up looking like. Obviously no way Biden wins there, but I do think he could get over 40% of the vote on a good night.

I feel that's the key for him in SW PA...just reduce the margins by a decent amount. Don't lose counties by about 40 points like Clinton did.

Yup.  It's a bit like in the solid states: you don't even need to get close -- any movement in your favor is beneficial.

Exactly. I live in Cambria County which used to vote Dem, but Clinton only got 29 percent, just horrible. If Biden can get around 35 percent it'll help.

[Mr. Matt]

https://twitter.com/BarstoolNewsN/status/1323623712311095296

RIP travelers on the Goat Path Expressway

(Via Lancaster Online)

[MT Treasurer]

Not sure if this is the right place to post this, but for those of you interested in MT politics/elections (I also posted this in the MT megathread on the gubernatorial/statewide elections board):

This is my PVI ‘county spreadsheet’, denoting each county's lean relative to the entire state, NOT the margins in said race:

County -- 2016 GOV -- 2017 HOUSE -- 2018 HOUSE -- 2018 SENATE

Beaverhead – R+22 -- R+25 – R+25 -- R+24
Big Horn – D+24 -- D+13 – D+30 -- D+28
Blaine – D+16 -- D+13 – D+24 -- D+29
Broadwater – R+21 -- R+32 – R+37 -- R+35
Carbon – R+10 -- R+7 – R+12 -- R+12
Carter – R+70 -- R+68 – R+67 -- R+67
Cascade – D+6 -- R+1 – D+1 -- D+2
Chouteau – R+8 -- R+19 – R+12 -- R+5
Custer – R+22 -- R+23 – R+25 -- R+20
Daniels – R+41 -- R+45 – R+43 -- R+41
Dawson – R+51 -- R+34 – D+37 -- R+40
Deer Lodge – D+39 -- D+39 –D+36 -- D+36
Fallon – R+51 -- R+60 – R+58 -- R+56
Fergus – R+29 -- R+34 – R+33 - R+32
Flathead – R+19 -- R+13 – R+17 -- R+18
Gallatin – D+11 -- D+19 – D+19 -- D+18
Garfield – R+71 -- R+79 – R+76 -- R+75
Glacier – D+45 -- D+39 – D+50 -- D+49
Golden Valley – R+33 -- R+43 – R+43 -- R+42
Granite – R+14 -- R+21 – R+24 -- R+23
Hill – D+14 -- D+6 – D+12 -- D+17
Jefferson – R+11 -- R+13 – R+16 -- R+14
Judith Basin – R+23 -- R+34 – R+41 -- R+34
Lake – R+2 -- R+2 – D+0 -- R+0
Lewis and Clark – D+19 -- D+15 – D+13 -- D+15
Liberty – R+24 --R+28 – R+32 -- R+26
Lincoln – R+30 -- R+29 – R+36 -- R+38
Madison – R+20 -- R+22 – R+25 -- R+24
McCone – R+55 -- R+52 – R+56 -- R+57
Meagher – R+28 -- R+36 – R+38 -- R+35
Mineral –  R+13 -- R+19 – R+24 --  R+23
Missoula – D+30 -- D+37 – D+35 -- D+41
Musselshell – R+39 -- R+50 – R+50 -- R+52
Park – D+6 -- D+10 – D+5 -- D+4
Petroleum – R+56 -- R+59 – R+63 -- R+64
Phillips – R+58 -- R+53 – R+50 -- R+44
Pondera – R+8 -- R+15 – R+18 -- R+12
Powder River – R+53 -- R+56 – R+58 -- R+60
Powell – R+23 -- R+28 – R+30 -- R+26
Prairie – R+51 -- R+50 – R+47 -- R+45
Ravalli – R+18 -- R+19 – R+22 -- R+23
Richland – R+55 -- R+46 – R+48 -- R+47
Roosevelt – D+10 -- D+11 – D+16 -- D+16
Rosebud – R+21 -- R+16 – R+12 -- R+11
Sanders – R+24 -- R+29 – R+32 -- R+33
Sheridan – R+18 -- R+11 – R+19 -- R+20
Silver Bow – D+40 -- D+40 – D+40 -- D+42
Stillwater – R+30 -- R+37 – R+37 -- R+39
Sweet Grass – R+36 -- R+38 – R+38 -- R+38
Teton – R+14 -- R+19 – R+22 -- R+19
Toole – R+24 -- R+29 – R+36 -- R+34
Treasure – R+30 -- R+35 – R+47 -- R+40
Valley – R+26 – R+29 – R+26 -- R+19
Wheatland – R+19 -- R+31 – R+34 -- R+33
Wibaux – R+48 -- R+55 – R+49 -- R+50
Yellowstone – R+5 -- R+13 – R+7 -- R+7

The 2018 results (especially for Senate) generally work as a good starting point for comparisons to the Bullock vs. Daines race in particular, but more on that later/when the results trickle in.

*bold = relatively ‘static’ and/or ‘reliable’ PVI with few fluctuations/deviations -> good bellwether
*bold and green = battleground and/or populous counties which will quickly tell us where the race is headed. The candidates cannot afford to underperform said county's PVI in their margin of victory here (for Daines, this is especially true of Ravalli, Cascade, and Yellowstone; for Bullock, of Lewis and Clark).

The two counties which will be closest to the statewide result: Lake and Cascade