2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[TopShelfGoal]

City of Madison has counted 12.85% of all absentees in the first 2 hours.  On this pace all absentees will be counted by a little after 10 pm

Can we extrapolate this pace to PA?

[Panda Express]

City of Madison has counted 12.85% of all absentees in the first 2 hours.  On this pace all absentees will be counted by a little after 10 pm

Excellent, so now it's mostly Pennsylvania and possibly Michigan that may take longer than a day. Hopefully we get a Wisconsin call tonight

[swf541]

City of Madison has counted 12.85% of all absentees in the first 2 hours.  On this pace all absentees will be counted by a little after 10 pm

Can we extrapolate this pace to PA?

Probably not but I wish

[TopShelfGoal]

City of Madison has counted 12.85% of all absentees in the first 2 hours.  On this pace all absentees will be counted by a little after 10 pm

Excellent, so now it's mostly Pennsylvania and possibly Michigan that may take longer than a day. Hopefully we get a Wisconsin call tonight

I believe MI was allowed to start preprocessing the ballots yesterday so they should theoretically be ahead of the WI pace.

[Flabuckeye]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

[7,052,770]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

That margin is a likely Biden win, right, given the Indy split and crossovers? How much do Rs need to be ahead to feel good?

[swf541]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

That margin is a likely Biden win, right, given the Indy split and crossovers? How much do Rs need to be ahead to feel good?

Earlier in this thread some estimated at 400k for the gop to feel comfortable idk if accurate.

[Dr. Arch]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

When do Sarasota, Miami-Dade, and Seminole start to provide regular updates, or do they just don't?

[RI]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

That margin is a likely Biden win, right, given the Indy split and crossovers? How much do Rs need to be ahead to feel good?

R's probably need somewhere in the +300k to +400k range to feel good.

[New York En Marche!]

Travis numbers:

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1323676464307408897

[ExSky]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Nowhere near enough and the best part of their E Day push is already gone.

[Person Man]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

That margin is a likely Biden win, right, given the Indy split and crossovers? How much do Rs need to be ahead to feel good?

They normally are about 400k IIRC and the NYT poll had them up at like 200k-300k.

[Sestak]

We're winning, folx. So much winning you could buy the biggest boat parade the world has ever seen.

[free my dawg]

First time I've ever had to wait in line to vote in my town. Apparently there are lines all around the state.

Anyways, voted Democratic up and down the ballot. Not sure what the future holds, but this election is bigger than me.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Per CNN, southeastern PA is looking really bad for Trump while the southwest is on par with 2016.

[Flabuckeye]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

When do Sarasota, Miami-Dade, and Seminole start to provide regular updates, or do they just don't?

They won't be posting them, we will have to wait it out...

[RI]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Here is the noon report:  (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,750,868 or 70.7%       -100,880
Rep  3,851,748 or 74.5%%

When do Sarasota, Miami-Dade, and Seminole start to provide regular updates, or do they just don't?

They won't be posting them, we will have to wait it out...

Sarasota has been posting updates, just through a different system. R's are +10k today there so far.

[CellarDoor]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

That margin is a likely Biden win, right, given the Indy split and crossovers? How much do Rs need to be ahead to feel good?

I saw some analysis this morning that estimated Biden had a 600K early vote lead (that was when Dems had a 118K Registration advantage). Who knows what the truth is, but we should expect R's to be ahead by registration. They were ahead in 2016 81% to 74%.  Also Dems do tend to vote later in the day and we haven't heard from Miami yet, I believe.

[Non Swing Voter]

Is it likely that Dems win the Election Day vote in Miami-Dade because Republicans over performed in early voting there?  And because the constituencies there might not trust mail ballots or early voting?

[Holmes]

Per CNN, southeastern PA is looking really bad for Trump while the southwest is on par with 2016.

Well I’m sure Alleghany is looking like a disaster for Trump.

[swf541]

Is it likely that Dems win the Election Day vote in Miami-Dade because Republicans over performed in early voting there?  And because the constituencies there might not trust mail ballots or early voting?

Its def possible

[wbrocks67]

Per CNN, southeastern PA is looking really bad for Trump while the southwest is on par with 2016.

In terms of what? Election day vote? Total votes? Mail in votes? Please be specific. I would be surprised if Trump does as well in Allegheny as he did in 2016.

[BudgieForce]

Is it likely that Dems win the Election Day vote in Miami-Dade because Republicans over performed in early voting there?  And because the constituencies there might not trust mail ballots or early voting?

Possibly. We saw stronger dem turnout on the last days of the early vote. We also saw at the Miami Trump rally that a majority of the audience indicated they had already voted.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Per CNN, southeastern PA is looking really bad for Trump while the southwest is on par with 2016.

Well I’m sure Alleghany is looking like a disaster for Trump.

They said Pittsburgh area, which is more than just Allegheny. I have no doubt that Biden will improve over Hillary in Allegheny.

Also, Robert Costa is also reporting that Trump is seeing an erosion in PA's suburbs.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/BarstoolNewsN/status/1323623712311095296