2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexi/status/1323652518698717187

"Hey how you guys doing? I'm Joe Biden.  Listen, can I sign your wall?  I mean, the wall that used to be my wall?"

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I voted by mail and have not driven by any polling places here in Charleston, SC, but I may do that at lunch to see how things look for Jamie Harrison

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I have a banana, a bowl of chilli, and a peanut butter sandwich locked and loaded that I will throw at anyone who says that Georgia will vote for Trump

You've been warned

[It’s so Joever]

IIRC, the forum crashed in 2016 not long after we got initial results from Indiana and Kentucky. I know because one of my last posts on record for that historic night was:

Clinton winning Marion County, KY.

That's it. She's winning in a landslide.

Was she actually ahead in Marion County at the time or were you just joking? Lmao it must have been a crazy night.

She was. There was like one precinct reporting in the county at the time.

And this is why we should extrapolate too much from counties with less than 75% reporting, especially this year.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1323666334794895368

[pantsaregood]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1323666334794895368

Somehow I'm guessing this makes it look unlikely Ralston's record gets broken.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1323666334794895368

Somehow I'm guessing this makes it look unlikely Ralston's record gets broken.

Reps have to be winning by much more than that.

[Holmes]

Uh oh, apparently Gillespie has caught up to Northam and the race is really close!

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexi/status/1323652518698717187

"Hey how you guys doing? I'm Joe Biden.  Listen, can I sign your wall?  I mean, the wall that used to be my wall?"

Ok but if the next President of the United States showed up at my doorstep & asked to sign my wall, I'd let them do so in a heartbeat

(In all seriousness, though, this pic makes me so emotional & honestly tears me up a little bit. It's like following a character's life story from humble beginnings, through all their ups & downs, to now finally being about to achieve their end goal after putting in a lifetime of hard work & effort to get here.)

[swf541]

Uh oh, apparently Gillespie has caught up to Northam and the race is really close!

Ah memories

[exopolitician]

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexi/status/1323652518698717187

"Hey how you guys doing? I'm Joe Biden.  Listen, can I sign your wall?  I mean, the wall that used to be my wall?"

Ok but if the next President of the United States showed up at my doorstep & asked to sign my wall, I'd let them do so in a heartbeat

(In all seriousness, though, this pic makes me so emotional & honestly tears me up a little bit. It's like following a character's life story from humble beginnings, through all their ups & downs, to now finally being about to achieve their end goal after putting in a lifetime of hard work & effort to get here.)

This video of him surrounded by the crowd got me a little emotional. My emotions are going through it today.

[cp]

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexi/status/1323652518698717187

"Hey how you guys doing? I'm Joe Biden.  Listen, can I sign your wall?  I mean, the wall that used to be my wall?"

Ok but if the next President of the United States showed up at my doorstep & asked to sign my wall, I'd let them do so in a heartbeat

(In all seriousness, though, this pic makes me so emotional & honestly tears me up a little bit. It's like following a character's life story from humble beginnings, through all their ups & downs, to now finally being about to achieve their end goal after putting in a lifetime of hard work & effort to get here.)

Not kidding: it would substantially increase the value of the house. Documents with actual presidential signatures on them are auctioned for thousands upon thousands of dollars.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://mobile.twitter.com/alexi/status/1323652518698717187

"Hey how you guys doing? I'm Joe Biden.  Listen, can I sign your wall?  I mean, the wall that used to be my wall?"

Ok but if the next President of the United States showed up at my doorstep & asked to sign my wall, I'd let them do so in a heartbeat

(In all seriousness, though, this pic makes me so emotional & honestly tears me up a little bit. It's like following a character's life story from humble beginnings, through all their ups & downs, to now finally being about to achieve their end goal after putting in a lifetime of hard work & effort to get here.)

Not kidding: it would substantially increase the value of the house. Documents with actual presidential signatures on them are auctioned for thousands upon thousands of dollars.

"Yo, you think you're hard with your Antiques Roadshow-ass FDR-signed letter? I've got a whole signed house." 

[Flabuckeye]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

[swf541]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% tunrout   

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Yep, they need to push a lot more though to be in a comfortable state.  And this assumes the remaining counties arent going to eat into the margin or that later day voting remains heavily gop dominated.

[randomusername]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1323671603843092483

[cp]

Is that including the Miami-Dade numbers?

[swf541]

Is that including the Miami-Dade numbers?

No

[Hindsight was 2020]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Key context fwi

[Crucial Waukesha]

City of Madison has counted 12.85% of all absentees in the first 2 hours.  On this pace all absentees will be counted by a little after 10 pm

[Enduro]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Cool, do you have numbers for third party or independent voters?

[RI]

Miami-Dade voted 20 points more R than Broward in both the early vote and the vote by mail. I don't see why it wouldn't be close to that on election day too, which would put Miami-Dade at about R+15 today.

[swf541]

Miami-Dade voted 20 points more R than Broward in both the early vote and the vote by mail. I don't see why it wouldn't be close to that on election day too, which would put Miami-Dade at about R+15 today.

Because there is more Dem votes to turnout and they did better in the closing days of EV.

That and minority voters are likelier to vote on election day then early voting, especially mail in voting.

[xavier110]

City of Madison has counted 12.85% of all absentees in the first 2 hours.  On this pace all absentees will be counted by a little after 10 pm

That is interesting! but they'll have actual ED vote too

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here’s my on-the-ground report from Forsyth County, Georgia, in the far northern suburbs of Atlanta.  The county is very affluent and historically very conservative; it voted 78-20 for John McCain, 81-18 for Mitt Romney, and 71-24 for Donald Trump.  The county has grown explosively in recent years; the lion’s share (but by no means all) of the growth has been in the southern half, which is in Congressional district GA-07.  This part of the county is effectively becoming an extension of the north Fulton County cities of Alpharetta, Milton, and Johns Creek, with an influx of highly educated technical and professional workers.  There has also been a strong increase in the minority population, particularly Asian-Americans.  The county’s northern part, in GA-09, is not immune to these trends, but remains much closer in some ways to its more rural neighbors to the north.  Generally, the county becomes more conservative as you go north and west.

I drove past my three nearest precincts between 11:00 and 11:30 this morning.  All of these are in the northwestern part of the county.  Going from north to south:

Precinct 15 (Heardsville), located at Sawnee Mountain Park in GA-09.  (Irrelevant aside: the park is not actually located at Sawnee Mountain, but got that name because it has a nice view of the mountain, which is a few miles southeast of the park.)  This is where I used to vote on Election Day before I switched to early voting a few years ago.  The precinct voted 80-15 for Trump and may be even more in his favor this time.  Since 2016, the county added several new precincts due to population growth and redrew the precinct lines.  Heardsville lost its southern portion (likely the least conservative) to the new Sawnee precinct.  When I drove by, the parking lot was perhaps 40% full (maybe 25-30 cars, which would include the poll workers) and there was no line.  I saw one person talking to a poll worker outside the door and another walking from the parking lot toward the building.

Precinct 37 (Sawnee), located at the Parks & Rec operations center on highway 20.  This is a new precinct, so there is no voting history.  I voted early here in the presidential primary this year.  It’s right on the boundary between GA-07 and GA-09.  There was a line of cars parked on the grass away from the main lot, which I assume belonged to the poll workers; the lot itself was sparsely occupied, perhaps 10 cars.  I saw a poll worker sitting out front and no one else.

Precinct 10 (Midway), located at Midway Park in GA-07.  This is where I used to vote early before Sawnee opened this year.  It voted 71-24 for Trump (mirroring the overall county result) but will likely be less conservative this year, since it lost its northern part in the precinct changes and has also been an area with high recent growth.  The parking lot here was packed (at least 40 cars) and there was a line of 10-12 people waiting to get in the building.