2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[South Dakota Democrat]

It's a bit funny to see how Biden got a higher vote share than Obama 2012 but everyone's treating this election like a nail biter but the 2012 one like a solid win

2012 was a blowout compared to this election, because Obama overperformed in the Electoral College.  Obama would have had to have lost the PV by like 1.5% to lose the election.  The battleground states ended up being not all that close, for the most part, in 2012.

[South Dakota Democrat]

So a question for y'all:

*Immediately* following GWB's over-performance with Hispanics (but particularly Latinos) in 2004, were GOP'ers confident that these gains would hold for future cycles?

(I was nine at the time, so a tad bit young for such demographical analysis hehe.)

I was a touch older, but I don't remember.

[South Dakota Democrat]

JFC.  look at all those wasted Biden votes.  Each of those boroughs has more votes than tiny states like South Dakota.  NYC deserves 10 senators.

NYC should have its own governor...and they can take ours.

[South Dakota Democrat]

JFC.  look at all those wasted Biden votes.  Each of those boroughs has more votes than tiny states like South Dakota.  NYC deserves 10 senators.

NYC should have its own governor...and they can take ours.

Literally no-one else wants her.  She's the biggest freakshow since this:

Like, sure, I know at the end of the day South Dakota is going to South Dakota and we'll have a Republican governor for the foreseeable future (although Noem only won by 3 points in 2018), but Noem is one of the worst Republicans in the country...and that's saying something.  I hated her when she was in Congress, too, but she has gotten markedly worse in her new role, and has inflicted far more damage.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Are we going to get to 800 pages?

[South Dakota Democrat]

It's very challenging to do exit polling when so much of the voting was done by mail.  Evidently, everyone failed spectacularly in this challenge.

[South Dakota Democrat]

What was everyone's reaction on election night?

I would describe mine as "concerned, but not panicked."  While it was clear based on the way things unfolded that 2016 wasn't an outlier, I was hopeful that the right states swung just enough to give Biden the win.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Wisconsin: Tony Evers (D)

Aren't officeholders not supposed to be electors, or did that apply specifically to federal office?

Just federal. 

[South Dakota Democrat]

We gotta get to 800 pages.

Edit:  Don't recommend this post...empty quote it.  Haha.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Yeah, I don't think we're going to 800.  Darn.

Several other posters should also post their thoughts about whether we'll get to 800 pages...or about anything election related...or about the weather...etc.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I don't like empty quoting* but we gotta get to 800 pages so just do something.
I am looking forward to the Electoral College vote tomorrow, which is actually today using Italian time. I doubt there will be any faithless electors.

*now that I've said that 100% chance this post will get empty quoted

[South Dakota Democrat]

Anyone surprised Biden did so well in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district?  I expected him to win it by 3 points or so.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Anyone surprised Biden did so well in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district?  I expected him to win it by 3 points or so.

JOEMAHA swinging as hard as it did was a mild surprise, yeah, but consistent with the overall "white suburbia goes even yuger for Biden than expected, but almost everything else stalls out" story of the night.

Any chance of them meaningfully altering that district in redistricting?

They may just try to make it winner take all, too.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Anyone surprised Biden did so well in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district?  I expected him to win it by 3 points or so.

JOEMAHA swinging as hard as it did was a mild surprise, yeah, but consistent with the overall "white suburbia goes even yuger for Biden than expected, but almost everything else stalls out" story of the night.

Any chance of them meaningfully altering that district in redistricting?

They may just try to make it winner take all, too.

Partisan shenanigans might be harder in Nebraska because the legislature is nonpartisan, and although most members are actually Republicans, it contains a decent number of RINOs.

Gotcha

[South Dakota Democrat]

Anyone surprised Biden did so well in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district?  I expected him to win it by 3 points or so.

#trends.

Yeah I suppose.

I'm still puzzled about Minnesota's swing vs. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc.  Education divide I suppose.

[South Dakota Democrat]

does atlas have the 2016 election live thread saved somewhere?

There won't be much actual stuff from election night there.  The site crashed.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Perhaps Alben Barkley can stop talking about how Biden wins Florida by miles?

I guess we really might get a democrat Georgia and a republican Florida...

Lol keep dreaming.

This aged well.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Look at that .... Georgia going for Trump. Who saw that coming?!?!?

This aged well.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Biden better win AZ, NV, PA, MI and WI - or he’s done.

He actually didn't need to win all of these states to win the election.

[South Dakota Democrat]

How is Georgia looking?

Perdue has easily won.

Trump won narrowly which is miraculous for Dems. The state has been a lost cause for years and especially this cycle. No matter how much of a hard on they get for it - it’s not happening and the fact people still at this hour believe it to have a chance of going Dem just shows the bankruptcy of their political analysis

I gotta bump this.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Mark my words: Pennsylvania is the election. Every remaining state is going Trump

Just marking your words, as you requested.

(We gotta get this to 800 pages somehow.)

[South Dakota Democrat]

If my certified state results thread gets merged with this, it would have 816 pages.

I requested that twice in the other thread.  Crickets both times.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Mark my words: Pennsylvania is the election. Every remaining state is going Trump

Just marking your words, as you requested.

(We gotta get this to 800 pages somehow.)

I mean, that just means he was wrong on Georgia and Arizona. Admittedly Arizona never looked better than a Lean D race, but Georgia there was no precedent for the trickle of absentee ballots that arrived and were counted in the week following the election.

The bigger problem is that he apparently thought Georgia would never go Dem, which was obviously always false. Georgia is gone for Rs in ten years’ time, possibly sooner (I think Rs will win it in the Biden midterm and maybe in 2024 with someone who does better in the suburbs, but 2026 GA = 2006 VA IMO).

It wasn't like he just made a prediction and left it at that though....he was constantly,  obnoxiously,  and ridiculously ignoring all evidence on both states (especially GA). I think he deserves some mockery for that. And he did ask that his words be marked,  after all.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Seriously though, can we merge this with the electoral college vote thread?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Mark my words: Pennsylvania is the election. Every remaining state is going Trump

Just marking your words, as you requested.

(We gotta get this to 800 pages somehow.)

I mean, that just means he was wrong on Georgia and Arizona. Admittedly Arizona never looked better than a Lean D race, but Georgia there was no precedent for the trickle of absentee ballots that arrived and were counted in the week following the election.

The bigger problem is that he apparently thought Georgia would never go Dem, which was obviously always false. Georgia is gone for Rs in ten years’ time, possibly sooner (I think Rs will win it in the Biden midterm and maybe in 2024 with someone who does better in the suburbs, but 2026 GA = 2006 VA IMO).

It wasn't like he just made a prediction and left it at that though....he was constantly,  obnoxiously,  and ridiculously ignoring all evidence on both states (especially GA). I think he deserves some mockery for that. And he did ask that his words be marked,  after all.

Virtually no one expected Biden to win GA at +4.5 in the NPV. 

Perhaps, but that was speculation beforehand.  We had actual data to go on on election night and in the immediate days after, and he ignored the evidence, called anyone who mentioned said evidence stupid and living in fantasy land, etc.