2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Anyone surprised Biden did so well in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district?  I expected him to win it by 3 points or so.

JOEMAHA swinging as hard as it did was a mild surprise, yeah, but consistent with the overall "white suburbia goes even yuger for Biden than expected, but almost everything else stalls out" story of the night.

[NOVA Green]

No, Biden made gains in various native communities across the country.

Oglala Lakota County, SD:

Biden: 88%
Trump: 9%

Clinton: 86%
Trump 8%

Menominee County, WI:

Biden: 82%
Trump: 17%

Clinton: 76%
Trump: 20%

Apache County, AZ:

Biden: 66%
Trump: 32%

Clinton: 62%
Trump: 30%

Lower Red Lake Indian Reserve, MN:

Biden: 94%
Trump: 4%

Clinton: 88%
Trump: 3%

Sioux County, ND:  

Biden: 68%
Trump: 22%

Clinton: 62%
Trump: 21%

Todd County, SD:

Biden: 77%
Trump: 21%

Clinton: 71%
Trump: 23%

I posted this on another thread that I mistakenly thought was about native Americans and not Indian Americans.  Interesting to see the gains in the Indigenous communities across the country.

Don't forget about a few other Counties with large Native Populations:

Big Horn County, Montana:

2020:

Biden:   2,491     (52.1%)      +6.0% Biden    (+0.3% DEM Swing)
Trump:  2,207     (46.1%)
Misc:         86      ( 1.8%)
Total:    4,784                        +13.3% 2016 to 2020 TV increase

2016:

HRC:     2,094    (49.6%)      +5.7% HRC
Trump:  1,853    (43.9%)
Misc:       277     ( 6.6%)
Total:    4,224       

Glacier County, Montana:

2020:

Biden:      3,610    (64.3%)      +34.3% Biden     (+4.6% DEM Swing)   
Trump:     1,910    (34.0%)     
Misc:        111     ( 2.2%)
Total:       5,617                     +11.0% 2016 to 2020 TV increase

2016:

HRC:     3,121    (61.7%)      +29.7 HRC
Trump:  1,620    (32.0%)
Misc:       320    ( 6.3%)
Total:    5,061

Roosevelt County, Montana

2020:

Biden:   1,910   (47.5%)      +2.2 Trump    (+4.1% DEM Swing)
Trump:  1,996   (49.7%)
Misc:        111    ( 2.8%)
Total:    4,017                      +10.1% 2016 to 2020 TV increase

2016:

HRC:     1,560    (42.8%)      +6.5% Trump
Trump:  1,797    (49.3%)
Misc:       291    ( 8.0%)
Total:    3,648

*** To put it mildly, these are less than impressive improvements, although granted it is entirely possible that surges of New "Non Native" Voters in some of these places reduced the DEM swing after the Nadir of HRC performance on Native Land ***

[YL]

So Biden DID end up winning Ontario co. NY

Source? NYTimes still has Trump ahead by 300ish votes

https://twitter.com/BenJ_Rosenblatt/status/1337572372342304769?s=20

The figures on the PDF linked from
http://www.co.ontario.ny.us/107/Board-of-Elections
as "2020 Official Election Results" are Biden/Harris 28,865, Trump/Pence 28,826, which matches that. 1,367 of Biden's votes were as the Working Families candidate, and 3,109 of Trump's were as the Conservative candidate.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

If Ontario County, NY, has flipped in the end, I am now struggling to decide if Inyo is still the most surprising Democratic county flip or Ontario supersedes it.

[Alcibiades]

If Ontario County, NY, has flipped in the end, I am now struggling to decide if Inyo is still the most surprising Democratic county flip or Ontario supersedes it.

Only the third time ever it’s voted Dem!

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

If Ontario County, NY, has flipped in the end, I am now struggling to decide if Inyo is still the most surprising Democratic county flip or Ontario supersedes it.

Only the third time ever it’s voted Dem!

Indeed. It had been a bit closer in recent elections though (Obama in 2008 lost it by a hair) while Inyo took a sharper turn this year.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Anyone surprised Biden did so well in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district?  I expected him to win it by 3 points or so.

JOEMAHA swinging as hard as it did was a mild surprise, yeah, but consistent with the overall "white suburbia goes even yuger for Biden than expected, but almost everything else stalls out" story of the night.

Any chance of them meaningfully altering that district in redistricting?

They may just try to make it winner take all, too.

[Alcibiades]

Anyone surprised Biden did so well in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district?  I expected him to win it by 3 points or so.

JOEMAHA swinging as hard as it did was a mild surprise, yeah, but consistent with the overall "white suburbia goes even yuger for Biden than expected, but almost everything else stalls out" story of the night.

Any chance of them meaningfully altering that district in redistricting?

They may just try to make it winner take all, too.

Partisan shenanigans might be harder in Nebraska because the legislature is nonpartisan, and although most members are actually Republicans, it contains a decent number of RINOs.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Anyone surprised Biden did so well in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district?  I expected him to win it by 3 points or so.

JOEMAHA swinging as hard as it did was a mild surprise, yeah, but consistent with the overall "white suburbia goes even yuger for Biden than expected, but almost everything else stalls out" story of the night.

Any chance of them meaningfully altering that district in redistricting?

They may just try to make it winner take all, too.

Partisan shenanigans might be harder in Nebraska because the legislature is nonpartisan, and although most members are actually Republicans, it contains a decent number of RINOs.

Gotcha

[Tender Branson]

Can the Archive please upload the 10 missing state certificates ?

What’s taking so long ?

[emailking]

Can the Archive please upload the 10 missing state certificates ?

What’s taking so long ?

It's government. You can get a delay that takes forever to resolve. Who knows what's going in. They had the counts of the faithless electors wrong for months in 2017.

[FrancoAgo]

9 missing now

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Anyone surprised Biden did so well in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district?  I expected him to win it by 3 points or so.

#trends.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Anyone surprised Biden did so well in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district?  I expected him to win it by 3 points or so.

#trends.

Yeah I suppose.

I'm still puzzled about Minnesota's swing vs. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc.  Education divide I suppose.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I have to admit I was kind of sad that there wasn't even a single faithless elector this year.
Faithless electors in small doses are fun.

Does anyone know where I can find full data for Nebraska's and Maine's congressional districts?

[Skye]

I have to admit I was kind of sad that there wasn't even a single faithless elector this year.
Faithless electors in small doses are fun.

Does anyone know where I can find full data for Nebraska's and Maine's congressional districts?

...here?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state2.php?fips=31&year=2020&f=0&off=0&elect=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state2.php?fips=23&year=2020&f=0&off=0&elect=0#

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I have to admit I was kind of sad that there wasn't even a single faithless elector this year.
Faithless electors in small doses are fun.

Does anyone know where I can find full data for Nebraska's and Maine's congressional districts?

...here?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state2.php?fips=31&year=2020&f=0&off=0&elect=0

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state2.php?fips=23&year=2020&f=0&off=0&elect=0#

Uh thanks. I didn't know how to accede to the Election Results in that format. Now I've realized where the button is.

So...

Maine's 1st - Biden +23 (swing D+8)
Maine's 2nd - Trump +7.5 (swing D+3)
Nebraska's 1st - Trump +15 (swing D+6)
Nebraska's 2nd - Biden +6.5 (swing D+9)
Nebraska's 3rd - Trump +53 (swing D+1)

Interesting. I was especially trying to understand how NE-01 went.

[wbrocks67]

Is there word on NYs total? Wasn't there discrepancies between county totals and the certified total?

[Crumpets]

https://twitter.com/MostCrucified/status/1338853927668867073

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/MostCrucified/status/1338853927668867073

His mom is going to be teed off if he doesn't get those garbage cans to the curb before the truck gets here.

But seriously ladies and gay men of Atlas, Feast your eyes, as I suspect this winner, and apparent part-time magician, just might be single!

[jimrtex]

I have alphabetized the states. Newly received states are in red.

Perusing the Certificates of Ascertainment that have been received by the National Archives

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020#certificates

I noted the following electors or elector candidates of note.

Alabama: Earl Hilliard, Jr. (D-candidate), he is Earl Hilliard's son.

Alaska: John Binkley (R), finished 2nd in the 2006 gubernatorial primary behind Sarah Palin, but ahead of incumbent Frank Murkowski. Also a riverboat captain in Fairbanks on the Tanana River.

Arizona: Kelli Ward (R-candidate), Barry Hess (L-candidate)

Arkansas: Ed Bethune(R)

California: Pete McCloskey (D), Janine Bera(D), Shirley Weber(D)

Colorado: not received.

Connecticut: not received.

Delaware: John Daniello (D), Gambino family soldier err founder Bark Eater Outfitters err 20-year-old Division III hockey play uh no, long time state party chair.

Florida: Gwen Graham (D-candidate), Bill Nelson (D-candidate).

Georgia: Stacey Abrams (D)

Hawaii: John "Raghu" Giuffre (American Shopping Party-candidate), party founder and promoter of raghu-nomics. Finished 6th in congressional race to replace Tulsi Gabbard.

Idaho: Rod Beck (R), Raul Labrador (R)

Illinois: Lori Lightfoot (D), William Redpath (L-candidate)

Indiana: James Buck (R), state senator.

Iowa: Not received.

Kansas: Not received.

Kentucky: Colmon Elridge (D-candidate) State Party chair.

Louisiana: Karen Carter Peterson (D-candidate), Woody Jenkins(R)

Maine: Peter LaVerdiere (R), age 79, and Jay Philbrick(D), age 18, are Maine's two congressional district electors.

Maryland: Not received.

Massachusetts: Nicole LaChapelle (D), mayor of Easthampton.

Michigan: Terry Lynn Land (R-candidate)

Minnesota: Muhammad Abdurrabman (D), who was an attempted faithless elector in 2016.

Mississippi: Terry Reeves, father of Governor Tate Reeves.

Missouri: Not received.

Montana: Thelma Baker (R), Googling, I found some very interesting stories.

Nebraska: Laura Ebke (L-candidate)

Nevada: Judith Whitmer (D), Clark County party official - notable in dispute over removal of pro-Palestine planks from county party platform. Yvanna Cancela (D), state senator and co-speaker DNC keynote infomercial

New Hampshire: Not received.

New Jersey: Tammy Murphy (D).

New Mexico: Not received.

New York: Bill Clinton (D), Hillary Clinton (D), Andrew Cuomo (D), Kathy Hochul (D), Thomas DiNapoli (D), Letitia James (D), Jay Jacobs (D), Carl Heastie (D), Christine Quinn (D), Rhonda Weingarten (D)

North Carolina: Anthony Foxx (D-candidate)

North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp (D-candidate)

Ohio: Ken Blackwell (R)

Oklahoma: Anybody?

Oregon: Carla Lynn Hanson (D), state party chair.

Pennsylvania: Lou Barletta (R-candidate)

Rhode Island: Joe Paolino (D), former mayor of Providence (1984-1991), also lost gubernatorial primary to Bruce Sundlun, congressional primary to Robert Weygand, mayoral primary to David Cicilline.

South Carolina: ??

South Dakota: Kristi Noem (R), Larry Rhoden (R), Jason Ravnsborg (R)

Tennessee: Tina Benkiser (R), former Texas state party chair.

Texas: Gene Seaman(R), Ken Mercer(R), Briscoe Cain(R), Nick Lampson(D-candidate), Terri Hodge(D-candidate), Katija Gruene(G-candidate)

Utah: Not received.

Vermont: Kesha Ram (D), state senator-elect, and daughter of a Jewish mother and Hindu father who ran an Irish pub in Santa Monica. Her aunt is a Tory life peer.

Virginia: Richard Art Viguerie (R-candidate): Direct mail politics.

Washington: Sophia Danenberg (D), works for Boeing and whose favorite app is Excel, and incidentally is first Black woman to summit Mount Everest.

West Virginia: James Justice (R)

Wisconsin: Tony Evers (D)

Wyoming: Milward Simpson (D-candidate), grandson of Milward Lee Simpson; nephew of Alan Kooi Simpson.

District of Columbia: ??


Other highlights:

Certificates of Ascertainment are signed by the Governor of each State, thus Noem (R-SD) and Evers (D-WI) signed their own certificates. Neither added a hand-written comment: "<---- That's ME !!!!!!" Andrew Cuomo didn't either but the New York certificate did have his name bolded. The New York certificate is the only one where the signature line does not identify the signer. James Justice is identified as the governor on the West Virginia certificate.

Most prosaic certificate: Wyoming; Most grandiose: Massachusetts.

Nebraska gives the vote totals for each elector candidate, and then states that four Republicans and one Democrat electors have been notified by certified mail but does not actually list the individuals. I hope they sent the mail to the right electors.

Four pairs of Socialist Worker electors in Washington share an address, but not a last name.

Brock Pierce electors in Minnesota included Jeffrey Pierce, Kathleen Pierce, Mark Pierce,  Barbara Pierce, Deborah Pierce (imagine if he had been elected, we would have had two Adam's, two Johnson's, two Roosevelt's, two Harrison's, two Bush's, and two Pierce's)

Kasey Wells electors in Minnesota included three electors with the same name of Illegible. They don't include addresses, but I image they were: "No Such Address". Don Blankenship electors in Minnesota included a pair of Bruskis.

All 8 electors for Shawn Howard in Kentucky were also electors for Shawn Howard in Minnesota and Florida. The two other electors for Howard in Minnesota were also electors for Shawn Howard in Florida. Five of these were designated in Indiana. Since Indiana noted the town of elector candidates, it specifically notes that these electors were from New Jersey, New Jersey, Florida, Connecticut, and New York.

The governor of Nevada did not sign that state's certificate of ascertainment, but made a mark. The SOS countersigned it making it legal.

Kamei Harris was a Trump-Pence elector in New Jersey. She is a black woman. If she voted, Kam... Harris would vote against Kam... Harris.

Vermont had Grumpy Old Patriots, Boiling Frog, Bull Moose, and Bread and Roses candidates.

In Ohio two candidates had fewer popular votes than electors (18 electors, 16 and 3 votes).

In Florida, Four write-in candidates had fewer popular votes than they had electors (29), with 9, 8, 2, and 1 popular votes. This may be the epitome of faithless elector.

The Alaska certificate was executed in Anchorage, rather than Juneau, and signed by both the Governor and Lieutenant Governor (Alaska does not have a Secretary of State, and the Lieutenant Governor serves in that role).

Delaware does not list elector names for also-runs but simply "Elector 1 for Jo Jorgensen", etc. On the other hand, it gives neither the name of the party nor the presidential candidate for the other electors. We can only surmise that "John Daniello  295,933" might vote for Joe Biden.

[FrancoAgo]

Just 5 missing now

[Bootes Void]

The polls in the northeast weren't bad at all, I wonder what causes that compared to some of the polls in the midwest

[jimrtex]

I have alphabetized the states. Newly received states are in red.

Perusing the Certificates of Ascertainment that have been received by the National Archives

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020#certificates

I noted the following electors or elector candidates of note.

Alabama: Earl Hilliard, Jr. (D-candidate), he is Earl Hilliard's son.

Alaska: John Binkley (R), finished 2nd in the 2006 gubernatorial primary behind Sarah Palin, but ahead of incumbent Frank Murkowski. Also a riverboat captain in Fairbanks on the Tanana River.

Arizona: Kelli Ward (R-candidate), Barry Hess (L-candidate)

Arkansas: Ed Bethune(R)

California: Pete McCloskey (D), Janine Bera(D), Shirley Weber(D)

Colorado: Polly Baca (D) plaintiff in faithless elector case. The named plaintiff, Michael Baca was actually replace in 2016. Polly Baca joined the case, claiming that the State's action coerced her to vote for Hillary Clinton.

Connecticut: not received.

Delaware: John Daniello (D), Gambino family soldier err founder Bark Eater Outfitters err 20-year-old Division III hockey play uh no, long time state party chair.

Florida: Gwen Graham (D-candidate), Bill Nelson (D-candidate).

Georgia: Stacey Abrams (D)

Hawaii: John "Raghu" Giuffre (American Shopping Party-candidate), party founder and promoter of raghu-nomics. Finished 6th in congressional race to replace Tulsi Gabbard.

Idaho: Rod Beck (R), Raul Labrador (R)

Illinois: Lori Lightfoot (D), William Redpath (L-candidate)

Indiana: James Buck (R), state senator.

Iowa: Not received.

Kansas: Not received.

Kentucky: Colmon Elridge (D-candidate) State Party chair.

Louisiana: Karen Carter Peterson (D-candidate), Woody Jenkins(R)

Maine: Peter LaVerdiere (R), age 79, and Jay Philbrick(D), age 18, are Maine's two congressional district electors.

Maryland: David Bossie (R-candidate), President and Chairman of the Board, Citizens United.

Massachusetts: Nicole LaChapelle (D), mayor of Easthampton.

Michigan: Terry Lynn Land (R-candidate)

Minnesota: Muhammad Abdurrabman (D), who was an attempted faithless elector in 2016.

Mississippi: Terry Reeves, father of Governor Tate Reeves.

Missouri: Not received.

Montana: Thelma Baker (R), Googling, I found some very interesting stories.

Nebraska: Laura Ebke (L-candidate)

Nevada: Judith Whitmer (D), Clark County party official - notable in dispute over removal of pro-Palestine planks from county party platform. Yvanna Cancela (D), state senator and co-speaker DNC keynote infomercial

New Hampshire: Corey Lewandowski (R-candidate), former Trump campaign manager.

New Jersey: Tammy Murphy (D), wife of Governor Phil Murrphy

New Mexico: Not received.

New York: Bill Clinton (D), Hillary Clinton (D), Andrew Cuomo (D), Kathy Hochul (D), Thomas DiNapoli (D), Letitia James (D), Jay Jacobs (D), Carl Heastie (D), Christine Quinn (D), Rhonda Weingarten (D)

North Carolina: Anthony Foxx (D-candidate)

North Dakota: Heidi Heitkamp (D-candidate)

Ohio: Ken Blackwell (R)

Oklahoma: Anybody?

Oregon: Carla Lynn Hanson (D), state party chair.

Pennsylvania: Lou Barletta (R-candidate)

Rhode Island: Joe Paolino (D), former mayor of Providence (1984-1991), also lost gubernatorial primary to Bruce Sundlun, congressional primary to Robert Weygand, mayoral primary to David Cicilline.

South Carolina: Who?

South Dakota: Kristi Noem (R), Larry Rhoden (R), Jason Ravnsborg (R)

Tennessee: Tina Benkiser (R), former Texas state party chair.

Texas: Gene Seaman(R), Ken Mercer(R), Briscoe Cain(R), Nick Lampson(D-candidate), Terri Hodge(D-candidate), Katija Gruene(G-candidate)

Utah: Not received.

Vermont: Kesha Ram (D), state senator-elect, and daughter of a Jewish mother and Hindu father who ran an Irish pub in Santa Monica. Her aunt is a Tory life peer.

Virginia: Richard Art Viguerie (R-candidate): Direct mail politics.

Washington: Sophia Danenberg (D), works for Boeing and whose favorite app is Excel, and incidentally is first Black woman to summit Mount Everest.

West Virginia: James Justice (R)

Wisconsin: Tony Evers (D)

Wyoming: Milward Simpson (D-candidate), grandson of Milward Lee Simpson; nephew of Alan Kooi Simpson.

District of Columbia: Jesse Jane Duff (R-candidate) USMC Gunnery Sargeant (ret.) and TV commentator.


Other highlights:

Certificates of Ascertainment are signed by the Governor of each State, thus Noem (R-SD) and Evers (D-WI) signed their own certificates. Neither added a hand-written comment: "<---- That's ME !!!!!!" Andrew Cuomo didn't either but the New York certificate did have his name bolded. The New York certificate is the only one where the signature line does not identify the signer. James Justice is identified as the governor on the West Virginia certificate.

Most prosaic certificate: Wyoming; Most grandiose: Massachusetts.

Nebraska gives the vote totals for each elector candidate, and then states that four Republicans and one Democrat electors have been notified by certified mail but does not actually list the individuals. I hope they sent the mail to the right electors.

Four pairs of Socialist Worker electors in Washington share an address, but not a last name.

Brock Pierce electors in Minnesota included Jeffrey Pierce, Kathleen Pierce, Mark Pierce,  Barbara Pierce, Deborah Pierce (imagine if he had been elected, we would have had two Adam's, two Johnson's, two Roosevelt's, two Harrison's, two Bush's, and two Pierce's)

Kasey Wells electors in Minnesota included three electors with the same name of Illegible. They don't include addresses, but I image they were: "No Such Address". Don Blankenship electors in Minnesota included a pair of Bruskis.

All 8 electors for Shawn Howard in Kentucky were also electors for Shawn Howard in Minnesota and Florida. The two other electors for Howard in Minnesota were also electors for Shawn Howard in Florida. Five of these were designated in Indiana. Since Indiana noted the town of elector candidates, it specifically notes that these electors were from New Jersey, New Jersey, Florida, Connecticut, and New York.

The governor of Nevada did not sign that state's certificate of ascertainment, but made a mark. The SOS countersigned it making it legal.

Kamei Harris was a Trump-Pence elector in New Jersey. She is a black woman. If she voted, Kam... Harris would vote against Kam... Harris.

Vermont had Grumpy Old Patriots, Boiling Frog, Bull Moose, and Bread and Roses candidates.

In Ohio two candidates had fewer popular votes than electors (18 electors, 16 and 3 votes).

In Florida, Four write-in candidates had fewer popular votes than they had electors (29), with 9, 8, 2, and 1 popular votes. This may be the epitome of faithless elector.

The Alaska certificate was executed in Anchorage, rather than Juneau, and signed by both the Governor and Lieutenant Governor (Alaska does not have a Secretary of State, and the Lieutenant Governor serves in that role).

Delaware does not list elector names for also-runs but simply "Elector 1 for Jo Jorgensen", etc. On the other hand, it gives neither the name of the party nor the presidential candidate for the other electors. We can only surmise that "John Daniello  295,933" might vote for Joe Biden.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Other highlights:

Kamei Harris was a Trump-Pence elector in New Jersey. She is a black woman. If she voted, Kam... Harris would vote against Kam... Harris.

Haha this is awesome.