2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[compucomp]

Wolf’s Certificate of Ascertainment for PA contains fewer votes than Cook’s Vote Tracker ...

Yeah, cert has Biden at 3.458, while Cook has Biden at 3.459

Votespa.com says that the certified totals do not include the mail ballots that were received after election day and before Nov. 6. Maybe that's part of the discrepancy.

[Tender Branson]

Electoral Vote tracker, based on official/certified states + DC

23/51:

134 Trump
  93 Biden

November 5th
Delaware

November 6th
New Hampshire

November 10th
Oklahoma
South Dakota
Vermont

November 11th
South Carolina
Wyoming

November 12th
North Dakota

November 17th
Florida

November 18th
Idaho
Mississippi
Virginia

November 19th
Louisiana
Massachusetts

November 20th
Georgia
Kentucky

November 23rd
Alabama
Maine (3 EV Biden, 1 EV Trump)
Michigan
Utah

November 24th
District of Columbia
Hawaii
Indiana
Minnesota
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas

November 25th
Alaska

November 30th
Arizona
Colorado
Iowa
Montana
Nebraska

December 1st
Kansas
Nevada
Wisconsin

December 3rd
Connecticut
Oregon
Washington
West Virginia

December 4th
Illinois

December 7th
New York

December 8th
Maryland
Missouri
New Jersey

December 11th
California

December 14th
Electoral College votes

Unknown dates
Arkansas (missed Nov. 18 deadline)
Rhode Island (results last updated Nov. 13, not yet official)
Tennessee (missed Nov. 23 deadline)

Results:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html
https://cookpolitical.com/2020-national-popular-vote-tracker?

Certificates of Ascertainment:

https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020

[Tender Branson]

GA becomes the 1st state to deliver its Certificate of Ascertainment to the National Archives:

https://www.archives.gov/files/electoral-college/2020/ascertainment-georgia.pdf

See link above.

[Tender Branson]

Kinda funny that Delaware was the first state with official results and now Georgia the first state to ascertain Trump’s loss at the National Archives ...

Also: I didn’t know that Stacey Abrams is an Electoral College member for Biden. I thought they’d choose more obscure people for this job.

[Inmate Trump]

Biden breaks 80M

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331261330859438080

I hope Trump falls to 46%.

[Tender Branson]

Biden breaks 80M

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331261330859438080

I hope Trump falls to 46%.

That’s not possible anymore with ca. 2 million votes left.

Only a 0.4% reduction is still possible for him.

[DINGO Joe]

Kinda funny that Delaware was the first state with official results and now Georgia the first state to ascertain Trump’s loss at the National Archives ...

Also: I didn’t know that Stacey Abrams is an Electoral College member for Biden. I thought they’d choose more obscure people for this job.

They got tired of obscure people being faithless electors

[Bootes Void]

Biden should hit 81.3 million or so and Trump should be shy of 75 million. Thats my PV projection

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Kinda funny that Delaware was the first state with official results and now Georgia the first state to ascertain Trump’s loss at the National Archives ...

Also: I didn’t know that Stacey Abrams is an Electoral College member for Biden. I thought they’d choose more obscure people for this job.

I read somewhere that Hillary is a New York elector. Being an elector ain't the arcane sinecure it used to be.

[Person Man]

Biden breaks 80M

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1331261330859438080

I hope Trump falls to 46%.

That’s not possible anymore with ca. 2 million votes left.

Only a 0.4% reduction is still possible for him.

Under 47% likely?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 396264 (73.0%)
Trump 137951 (25.5%)
Total 542907

Margin of 47.6%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +5.8%, so average swing of 53.4%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4094896 (56.9%)
Trump 2988721 (41.5%)
Total 7199497

Is there a 100% up to date map anywhere?

Don't think so, Politico seems to be most up-to-date right now but missing Saratoga and Dutchess notably.

Could you make an Atlas-style map of the counties that are complete or almost-complete? That'd be really cool to see.

done (including Erie results from Wasserman)

Standard:



Swings:

Is the heavy GOP swing in Rockland because of its large Orthodox Jewish population?

[politicallefty]

Kinda funny that Delaware was the first state with official results and now Georgia the first state to ascertain Trump’s loss at the National Archives ...

Also: I didn’t know that Stacey Abrams is an Electoral College member for Biden. I thought they’d choose more obscure people for this job.

I read somewhere that Hillary is a New York elector. Being an elector ain't the arcane sinecure it used to be.

She is, as are Bill Clinton and Andrew Cuomo, among others. The latter two were also electors for Hillary in 2016. I noticed a few states have their governors as electors if they're the same party. Apparently, the main restriction on electors is this:

[...] no Senator or Representative, or Person holding an Office of Trust or Profit under the United States, shall be appointed an Elector.

[Holmes]

First thing I thought when I saw the Rockland swing was the Jewish vote.

[n1240]

Dane/Milwaukee recount status:

Dane: 11.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 35 votes, Trump loses 13 votes, Trump net of 22 votes
Milwaukee: 12.6% of vote recounted, Biden gains 1 vote, Trump gains 1 vote, net of 0 votes

Milwaukee City and Madison currently do not have any votes tabulated for their recounts yet.

update:

Dane: 23.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 51 votes, Trump loses 10 votes, Trump net of 41 votes
Milwaukee: no change, will check later

Dane: 36.2% of vote recounted, Biden loses 81 votes, Trump loses 15 votes, Trump net of 66 votes
Milwaukee: 25.7% of vote recounted, Biden gains 3 votes, Trump loses 6 votes, Biden net of 9 votes

note: nothing from Milwaukee city or Madison (they don't seem to report results until full municipalities are counted)

[Roll Roons]

NY update:

Absentee count:

Biden 396264 (73.0%)
Trump 137951 (25.5%)
Total 542907

Margin of 47.6%, average weighted final eday margin of Trump +5.8%, so average swing of 53.4%.

Statewide total:

Biden 4094896 (56.9%)
Trump 2988721 (41.5%)
Total 7199497

Is there a 100% up to date map anywhere?

Don't think so, Politico seems to be most up-to-date right now but missing Saratoga and Dutchess notably.

Could you make an Atlas-style map of the counties that are complete or almost-complete? That'd be really cool to see.

done (including Erie results from Wasserman)

Standard:



Swings:

Is the heavy GOP swing in Rockland because of its large Orthodox Jewish population?

Almost certainly.

[n1240]

Is the heavy GOP swing in Rockland because of its large Orthodox Jewish population?

This is what I'm assuming, I may try and run through precinct data actually and see if I can detect swings outside of Ramapo though.

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1331283496837509120

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ryanjreilly/status/1331283304897712130

I've been wondering whether Orly would make an appearance in this.

[Panda Express]

Woah. Massachusetts being 66-32 is something. We knew it was blue but that is BLUE

Maryland is going to be 65+ Dem too.. unreal.

Was this particular anti-Trump sentiment or was Biden just a good fit, or are both MA/MD just on a continued blueward trend?

The top 3 most educated states in the USA (highest % of Bachelor's Degrees) are....

(1)Massachusetts, (2)Colorado, (3)Maryland

[ProgressiveModerate]

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/JTHVerhovek/status/1331291819313942529

[ProgressiveModerate]

Woah. Massachusetts being 66-32 is something. We knew it was blue but that is BLUE

Maryland is going to be 65+ Dem too.. unreal.

Was this particular anti-Trump sentiment or was Biden just a good fit, or are both MA/MD just on a continued blueward trend?

The top 3 most educated states in the USA (highest % of Bachelor's Degrees) are....

(1)Massachusetts, (2)Colorado, (3)Maryland

Yep, if I turn up the education divide as high as it'll go in my model, MA and MD are 100.00% Biden, and CO becomes 99.62% Biden, and you overall get a map that is closer to the final result:

[pantsaregood]

https://twitter.com/ryanjreilly/status/1331283304897712130

I've been wondering whether Orly would make an appearance in this.

[ucscgaldamez1]

What happened in Arizona?

1,674,507 Biden
1,666,552 Trump
Source: Dave Leip results on this website

I thought Biden had won by over 10,000? Instead he won by 7,955?

[jimrtex]

NY really needs to reform its election system the next 4 years ...

Vienna, a city of 2 million, counted 400.000 postal ballots in 2 days without pre-processing.

NY, a state of 20 million, counts 1.6 million postal ballots for 6 weeks !

Are Austrian postal ballots actually postal ballots (placed in ordinary mail for delivery to electoral authorities)?