2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[South Dakota Democrat]

Genuinely concerned this election could be stolen.

Any rational personal would feel the same

Nope.  The rational people think we’re overreacting.

Dems are actively trying to steal it from Trump right now in Detroit and Philadelphia. This is 1960 all over again except Trump will fight.

I know this was from awhile back, but seriously...explain how counting votes is stealing.  I'll wait.

[South Dakota Democrat]

This has to be the longest thread by far in Atlas history, right?

[South Dakota Democrat]

I'm checking out of this thread for the time being. I don't need this cock and ball torture without the cock and balls right now. I'll be lurking on the NYT results page for the time being, like an animal. See all you beautiful people once Philly shoots its load.

This was very poetic.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I know people will doom Warnock & Ossoff because of Dems' poor history in runoffs but THE DEMS MADE 2 RUNOFFS IN GEORGIA AND BIDEN CAN STILL WIN THE STATE - celebrate a little.

Well with all the crap I’ve gotten about my take

Take it to the bank, cash the checks it’s gaining intrest:

Dems won’t win Georgia.

We should be beyond moral victories

Pretty sure he posted this after, several posts before, he declared that he wouldn't post about Georgia again.

By the way, the reason I'm bumping so many old posts is because I've been re-reading the thread (currently about halfway through).

A couple of things stand out:

1. People were really impatient!  I certainly was at the time as well, but it's just different looking back on it...a lot of takes about "when will x state be done counting," etc., asked over and over, and a lot of "Tell me what's going on in x state" without that person bothering to Google it.

2. Pennsylvania seems interesting.  A lot of takes on the forum, plus takes in other media, indicated that Biden would win it much more comfortably than he did.

3. I still, for the life of me, do not understand Millennial Moderate's dooming about Georgia.  Like, it's absolutely ridiculous...I have no idea why, even when the Trump lead slipped to about 14k with plenty of Dem votes to come in, he was doggedly insisting that it wouldn't, and even couldn't, go D.

4. A lot of people really fell for red and blue mirages.  A lot of takes of "I know not all the votes are in yet, but whoa, x state really trended (R/D)!" (even though they acknowledged their take isn't necessarily accurate because the votes could be skewed depending on how much is reporting/the type of ballots that are reporting)

[South Dakota Democrat]

Georgia margin down to 12,825.

These guys are slow at counting

They’re delaying the invevitable but if you just listened to me it wouldn’t be so difficult.

You mean like how you listened to literally all of Atlas when we gave you receipts over & over & over again as to how JKIII pales in comparison to (King) Markey? Or how you've been listening to us right now as to how, y'know, simple math re: GA ballots & the composition thereof works?

K.

Low blow. I can’t help the latte liberal crowd is short a few brain cells

Your only actual reason you've given for supporting Kennedy is that he's a Kennedy.

I don't think we're the ones who lack brain cells.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Everyone was ready for the red mirage, but it seems most everyone fell for it in the end anyway.

The thing is, there was actually a blue mirage in some places (namely OH and NC). These going from Biden +10 to a Trump lead on election night certainly made me lose some faith

That always happens in those states though. No one should have been fooled by that.

The red mirage was never something that was predicted to happen in every state. Just depended on what type of ballots were counted first.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Georgia margin down to 12,825.

These guys are slow at counting

They’re delaying the invevitable but if you just listened to me it wouldn’t be so difficult.

You mean like how you listened to literally all of Atlas when we gave you receipts over & over & over again as to how JKIII pales in comparison to (King) Markey? Or how you've been listening to us right now as to how, y'know, simple math re: GA ballots & the composition thereof works?

K.

Low blow. I can’t help the latte liberal crowd is short a few brain cells

Your only actual reason you've given for supporting Kennedy is that he's a Kennedy.

I don't think we're the ones who lack brain cells.

Not totally true.

Never liked Markey. Probably a good man but as “hack” as you can get. No one in the senate cares about being a senator than actually accomplishing ideological goals or (any goals) than Markey. The trappings of being in Washington are all he cares about. He’s a political cameleon- whatever he has to do to be elected - liberal progressive moderate or whatever it takes.

In fact I voted for the Republican in the 2013 Special election (Gomez)

That's Kennedy.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I don’t know why - I’ve been a dimmer this whole race but was turning that tcornwr the last few weeks but now all of a sudden today I have dread. I think today is a tossup and a trump win is not out of the question at all. I’d call it a true tossup. I think the early vote numbers are whatever - they’re just the same Dem votes must cast earlier due to the anti Trump sentiment and the pandemic.

And I think the senate is simply not happening. It’s broke the GOP Way in the last few days and I’d bet $100 easily that we don’t even get a 50/50 split.

A fool and his money....

Quote me and put me in the sig for tool bag entirety if I’m wrong but as usual (except for NV 18 SEN) I will be right. I called the Markey disaster months before pollsters did and posters on here did. When Bredesen has a lead in TN SEN briefly I said that race had no chance of flipping. Your replies of “good call” will be a sorry consolation to me trust me. But the Senate is a lost cause I guarantee it. Georgia is fools gold if I’ve ever seen it.

Three locks of the night:

POTUS is a tossup, winner gets under 300EV
DEMS keep House (100%), GOP keeps Senate (98%)
Georgia is an 0 for 3 state for Dems

[South Dakota Democrat]

Am I the only one who still thinks Biden wins lol

Yes lol. I’m sorry but ... that’s remarkably dumb

[South Dakota Democrat]

georgia is more disappointing than fl for dems

Shocked. Absolutely shocked

ga may actually swing R??

[South Dakota Democrat]

GA is actually looking like it's going to come down to 1% either way. The votes are coming in around metro ATL and they are not good for Trump vs. 2016 and 2018.

HAHAHAHAHAHA. Christ. Stop. Just stop

[South Dakota Democrat]

GA President might not be over yet, given the counting bias.

Is this board infected? I know I sound like a broken record but Christ on a cracker. Georgia is not happening. PERIOD. Write it down.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Called it

What's your thinking? You can quote me on this. Look at the margins and swings from 2016 coming out of Fulton, Dekalb, Gwinnett, Cobb. Even Cherokee and Fayette...

GA is actually looking like it's going to come down to 1% either way. The votes are coming in around metro ATL and they are not good for Trump vs. 2016 and 2018.

HAHAHAHAHAHA. Christ. Stop. Just stop

You called nothing. It’s NOT HAPPENING. You’ll see. Quote me. Write it down

[South Dakota Democrat]

Also my belief in Wisconsin being the bluest and Michigan being the reddest of the big three continues to be confirmed.

[South Dakota Democrat]

AP showing Wisconsin with 93% reporting, Trump leading by 110,000 votes. Insurmountable.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I think Biden will win Wisconsin. Why are people not looking at the swings in the counties that are almost 100% reporting?

Dane has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats.
Ozaukee has a 7-point swing towards the Democrats.
Waukesha has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats, and I would expect it to become a little bit larger  because there's a chunk of uncounted absentee vote.
Eau Claire has a 3-point swing towards the Democrats.
Racine has a 1-point swing towards the Democrats.
St Croix has a 2-point swing towards the Democrats.

Up north, Douglas has a 2-point swing, Bayfield a 5-point swing, Ashland is staying pretty much the same.

I appreciate that the swings are mixed elsewhere in the state, but the aforementioned counties have a large population. Wisconsin only needs a swing of less than 1 percent to flip.

If Biden doesn't underperform horribly in Milwaukee and Kenosha, I think he's winning.

I think you’re right. And I also think Biden will win at least one of MI, PA, or GA. That will do it.

You know, I have to admire your determination. Biden is almost certain to lose yet you're still holding out hope.

[South Dakota Democrat]

How come everyone is excited about Wisconsin?

Isn’t there way more outstanding GOP vote?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Even if Biden wins WI and MI, it seems PA and NV are lost causes.

There are also not enough votes left for him in GA or NC, right ?

[South Dakota Democrat]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1323855032207450113

How exactly did the needle turn so quickly? IIRC it was favoring Trump before.

If I recall, it's that the results among Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia were too correlated in their model.  Thus, when Biden did poorly in Florida, that affected the needle in Georgia as well.  Georgia really was fairly de-coupled from the national environment, to an extent, which is also mentioned in the book Lucky, as the Biden campaign saw NC, FL, MI, PA, and WI as very correlated, but AZ and GA as less so. 

[South Dakota Democrat]

Can anyone TLDR on how much is out in GA and when its expected?

Focus on the blue wall

Georgia is a pipe dream

[South Dakota Democrat]

Where is Lurker? Is he... safe? Is he... all right?

Shut up, you hack. The Senate is gone and you're still trying to run victory laps. Celebrate the tiny, narrow victory of Mr. Electable all you want, but this was not a successful night by any stretch of the imagination for the Democratic Party.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Where is Lurker? Is he... safe? Is he... all right?

Shut up, you hack. The Senate is gone and you're still trying to run victory laps. Celebrate the tiny, narrow victory of Mr. Electable all you want, but this was not a successful night by any stretch of the imagination for the Democratic Party.

And you're digging this up today why?

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1401547638202380290

Been going through the thread the past few days, digging up particularly obstinate posts that were wrong. A lot of people incorrectly predicted the Senate, but you earned a quote with the "shut up,  you hack" line.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Where is Lurker? Is he... safe? Is he... all right?

Shut up, you hack. The Senate is gone and you're still trying to run victory laps. Celebrate the tiny, narrow victory of Mr. Electable all you want, but this was not a successful night by any stretch of the imagination for the Democratic Party.

And you're digging this up today why?

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1401547638202380290

Been going through the thread the past few days, digging up particularly obstinate posts that were wrong. A lot of people incorrectly predicted the Senate, but you earned a quote with the "shut up,  you hack" line.

There's a "poorly aged content" thread for that. Not continuously empty quoting old posts in an 800 page thread during a time where politically we don't exactly have much to gloat about.

Think I'll keep doing it my way unless told differently by mods, but thanks for your input.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Where is Lurker? Is he... safe? Is he... all right?

Shut up, you hack. The Senate is gone and you're still trying to run victory laps. Celebrate the tiny, narrow victory of Mr. Electable all you want, but this was not a successful night by any stretch of the imagination for the Democratic Party.

And you're digging this up today why?

https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1401547638202380290

Been going through the thread the past few days, digging up particularly obstinate posts that were wrong. A lot of people incorrectly predicted the Senate, but you earned a quote with the "shut up,  you hack" line.

There's a "poorly aged content" thread for that. Not continuously empty quoting old posts in an 800 page thread during a time where politically we don't exactly have much to gloat about.

Think I'll keep doing it my way unless told differently by mods, but thanks for your input.

Then I'll keep calling you out for pointlessly bumping things unless the mods tell me otherwise.

k

[South Dakota Democrat]

I kind of hope Arizona saves the day so John McCain’s ghost gets to give one last F you to Trump.

Dude, just stop.