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November 27, 2020, 04:01:38 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
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  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  KS - Data for Progress: Marshall +6
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Author Topic: KS - Data for Progress: Marshall +6  (Read 531 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« on: November 02, 2020, 07:22:34 PM »

https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/11/2020-election-polls/toplines/dfp_ks_11.2.20.pdf

Oct 27-Nov 1
1121 likely voters
MoE: 2.9%
Changes with Sep 14-19

Marshall 51% (+11)
Bollier 45% (+5)
Buckley (L) 4% (-1)
Other candidate or write-in 1% (not previously included)

Undecided previously at 15%
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#SaveTheSenate
VARepublican
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 07:23:34 PM »

But muh internals!
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2020, 07:26:49 PM »

New Poll: Kansas Senator by Data 4 Progress on 2020-11-01

Summary: D: 45%, R: 51%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2020, 07:27:00 PM »

Sorry folks but I don't see it happening
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2020, 07:28:23 PM »

Sorry folks but I don't see it happening

You don't believe in upsets do you, Bollier can certainly win an upset and so can Harrison and Bullock and GREENFIELD
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2020, 07:28:57 PM »

Darn it!
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2020, 07:29:26 PM »

She ran a strong race, but this was always going to be very tough without Kobach as the nominee.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2020, 07:30:34 PM »

Bollier isn't done, she can win it on Election day
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2020, 07:33:57 PM »

I expect the final margin to be about this.
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Unbeatable Titan Gary Peters
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2020, 07:35:22 PM »

Has Bollier running 8 points ahead of Biden. She can still win. Lean R
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2020, 07:36:56 PM »

Has Bollier running 8 points ahead of Biden. She can still win. Lean R

Marshall over 50% and the undecided voters probably slant towards Trump. Relying on this poll alone and a mere day out from election, this race would deserve a firm likely R, although other recent surveys have been a fair bit more favourable.
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new_patomic
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2020, 07:37:41 PM »

She's gonna come closer than any Democrat has in a long time in Kansas, in a race that really had no right to be this competitive.

But probably still lose by mid-single digits.
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Pollster
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2020, 07:39:05 PM »

We're also seeing Marshall start to break away in our data. Bollier kept it close for much longer than even our most generous modeling anticipated. She's certainly not down for the count yet, but Marshall is favored.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2020, 07:42:09 PM »

If only it had been Kobach.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2020, 07:42:42 PM »

I think the final numbers will be very close to this, Marshall wins by 5-8%.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2020, 07:46:22 PM »

I think the final numbers will be very close to this, Marshall wins by 5-8%.

Why exactly has this race pulled away from the Democrats in recent weeks? I'm aware of some of Bollier's recent missteps, but are there any factors that you think have come into play here?
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2020, 07:48:35 PM »

I think the final numbers will be very close to this, Marshall wins by 5-8%.

Why exactly has this race pulled away from the Democrats in recent weeks? I'm aware of some of Bollier's recent missteps, but are there any factors that you think have come into play here?

Not the person you quoted, but I'd assume a lot of it is just partisanship kicking in. Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1932, after all, and state races are different from federal races. My guess is Kobach would still have won at this point.
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Pericles
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2020, 07:50:19 PM »

It being a 6 point race when the same poll has Trump leading by 14% is a good sign (Bollier's vote share is 4% higher than Biden's, and Marshall's is 4% lower than Trump's), but this is a tough race to actually win. Lean R, Bollier probably does well but not well enough. Hopefully there is a polling error like KS-Gov 2018 (maybe it would need to be even bigger).
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2020, 07:52:00 PM »

I think the final numbers will be very close to this, Marshall wins by 5-8%.

Why exactly has this race pulled away from the Democrats in recent weeks? I'm aware of some of Bollier's recent missteps, but are there any factors that you think have come into play here?

Not the person you quoted, but I'd assume a lot of it is just partisanship kicking in. Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1932, after all, and state races are different from federal races. My guess is Kobach would still have won at this point.

I would agree with this. As I was saying the other day, I think it's very likely that we have the same outcome as in 2016-that is, there being no splits between Senatorial and presidential races. My hunch is that they are going to track together this year.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2020, 07:52:03 PM »

I think the final numbers will be very close to this, Marshall wins by 5-8%.

Why exactly has this race pulled away from the Democrats in recent weeks? I'm aware of some of Bollier's recent missteps, but are there any factors that you think have come into play here?

Not the person you quoted, but I'd assume a lot of it is just partisanship kicking in. Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic Senator since 1932, after all, and state races are different from federal races. My guess is Kobach would still have won at this point.


KS IS WAVE INSURANCE, BOLLIER CAN OVERCOME 6 points to Marshall.  SO CAN HARRISON overcome Graham, so can BULLOCK/COONEY, THATS WHY I HAVE THEM LEANING D

GALLOWAY WILL LOSE DUE TO A SYMPATHY EFFECT TO PARSON DUE TO COVID
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DrScholl
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2020, 07:52:56 PM »

It's just extremely hard to get enough votes out of KS-1 in a federal race and I suspect that if Marshall wins that his winning margin will come almost entirely from there.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2020, 07:55:14 PM »

Dems are not conceding anything to R, they are still within margin of error in AK, GA, IA, KS, MT, SC and TX and win them on Gotv
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AncestralDemocrat.
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2020, 07:56:33 PM »

Lean R to likely R.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2020, 07:58:23 PM »

The streak is going to continue. I'm glad I never got my hopes up about this race.

What does MTTreasurer think though?
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morgieb
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« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2020, 08:00:37 PM »

This isn't completely awful news for Bollier as she is overperforming Biden by 8 points, but yeah Kansas is probably still a little too red for this to flip.
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