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December 05, 2020, 01:18:04 AM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE, ON Progressive)
  GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
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Author Topic: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4  (Read 1524 times)
Buzz
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« on: November 02, 2020, 02:51:11 PM »

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/FINAL_WSBTV_Landmark_Poll_Georgia_PresSenate_Nov_1_2020.pdf

50-46
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iamaganster123
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2020, 02:52:50 PM »

this is a fairly friendly trump pollster.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2020, 02:53:28 PM »

They're either going to be wrong or right.
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Buzz
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2020, 02:53:56 PM »

They're either going to be wrong or right.
Bold take!
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2020, 02:54:10 PM »

They're either going to be wrong or right.

Insightful!
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Beida
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2020, 02:54:37 PM »

They're either going to be wrong or right.

this is going to be my quote of the night
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President Joseph R. Biden
Patrick97
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2020, 02:55:50 PM »

Why do they keep getting overwhelmingly white demos? It's 65% white that higher than in 2014.
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LimoLiberal
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2020, 02:56:04 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2020, 03:11:25 PM by YE »

If there was a real late break to Trump, is this what it would look like? That's the question that keeps spinning through my head.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2020, 02:57:27 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2020, 03:11:05 PM by YE »

Other than this poll and I guess the AZ tie from Marist, mostly good polls for Biden.

Landmark has also been kind of all over the place but skewing towards Trump relative to other GA polls. So I'm not too worried about it.


If there was a real late break to Trump, is this what it would look like? That's the question that keeps spinning through my head.

Considering how many people have already voted, I'm not sure it even matters anymore. Indeed whatever "tightening" we may be seeing in some polls (not all or even most) could just come down to fewer people who have already voted are responding (mostly Democrats).
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Hammy
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2020, 03:00:15 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2020, 03:12:40 PM by YE »

If there was a real late break to Trump, is this what it would look like? That's the question that keeps spinning through my head.

Or, as others have already pointed out, many people who have already voted are no longer answering polls
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DrScholl
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2020, 03:01:17 PM »

They do one day samples which is very bad for polling.
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#SaveTheSenate
VARepublican
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2020, 03:01:38 PM »

Lief is clearly trolling.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2020, 03:02:11 PM »

What was their final number for Kemp/Abrams?
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BRTD
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2020, 03:03:47 PM »

What was their final number for Kemp/Abrams?


Kemp +2 which is basically dead on. However it was released more than a month before election day.
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Buzz
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2020, 03:05:33 PM »

Their final 2016 number was Trump +3
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2020, 03:06:38 PM »

They do one day samples which is very bad for polling.

One day samples?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2020, 03:06:41 PM »

Yes, it totally makes sense that Trump will nearly replicate hits 2016 margin here!
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BudgieForce
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2020, 03:07:29 PM »


They do 1 poll over a single day.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2020, 03:07:44 PM »

It's just not there yet Wink
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RBH
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2020, 03:10:57 PM »

Landmark's post-Labor day Georgia polls

9/30: Biden by 2
10/7: Trump by 2
10/21: Trump by 4
10/28: Trump by 1
11/1: Trump by 4

If they did a poll today, they'd probably get Trump by 1/2. Rollercoaster pollster.
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jk2020
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2020, 03:15:00 PM »

They have Biden at 28.3% of WHITES. That's a win for sure if he actually gets that number; idk why they have such a white sample lol.
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2020, 03:41:32 PM »

Lean R.
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kwabbit
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2020, 04:12:10 PM »

Landmark's post-Labor day Georgia polls

9/30: Biden by 2
10/7: Trump by 2
10/21: Trump by 4
10/28: Trump by 1
11/1: Trump by 4

If they did a poll today, they'd probably get Trump by 1/2. Rollercoaster pollster.

That kind of movement is to be expected with random sampling. In fact, it would be suspect if they kept on finding the same number (like Trafalgar getting Trump +2 in Michigan 7 times in a row). If the 'true' result for Landmark was Trump +1, then this would be completely normal and I wouldn't really say these polls say anything different from each other.
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forsythvoter
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« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2020, 04:43:42 PM »

GA is a really hard to poll state, because there's a huge divergence between rural (10-15% D), suburban (30-40% D), urban (60%-70% D) white voters vs. black voters (90-95% D). If you don't get the mix right, the results can easily be R+5 or D+5.

At this point, though, I doubt there's that much movement in the last 3 days. It's likely 80% or so the total vote is already in, so even a sharp last minute move won't move the needle much.
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RBH
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« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2020, 05:00:45 PM »

Landmark's post-Labor day Georgia polls

9/30: Biden by 2
10/7: Trump by 2
10/21: Trump by 4
10/28: Trump by 1
11/1: Trump by 4

If they did a poll today, they'd probably get Trump by 1/2. Rollercoaster pollster.

That kind of movement is to be expected with random sampling. In fact, it would be suspect if they kept on finding the same number (like Trafalgar getting Trump +2 in Michigan 7 times in a row). If the 'true' result for Landmark was Trump +1, then this would be completely normal and I wouldn't really say these polls say anything different from each other.

having the pollster for one of the big Atlanta TV stations apparently doing one day samples is great for eye-catching polls. As for accurate data, well.. I guess if the numbers bounce around, one of them is due to be right.
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