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February 25, 2021, 03:31:58 AM
Talk Elections
Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
2020 U.S. Presidential Election
2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
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GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
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Topic: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4 (Read 1789 times)
Buzz
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,038
GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
on:
November 02, 2020, 02:51:11 PM »
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2020/FINAL_WSBTV_Landmark_Poll_Georgia_PresSenate_Nov_1_2020.pdf
50-46
Logged
Bootes Void
iamaganster123
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,368
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #1 on:
November 02, 2020, 02:52:50 PM »
this is a fairly friendly trump pollster.
Logged
LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,377
Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #2 on:
November 02, 2020, 02:53:28 PM »
They're either going to be wrong or right.
Logged
Buzz
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,038
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #3 on:
November 02, 2020, 02:53:56 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on November 02, 2020, 02:53:28 PM
They're either going to be wrong or right.
Bold take!
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 7,894
Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #4 on:
November 02, 2020, 02:54:10 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on November 02, 2020, 02:53:28 PM
They're either going to be wrong or right.
Insightful!
Logged
redjohn
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,525
Political Matrix
E: -7.03, S: -6.17
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #5 on:
November 02, 2020, 02:54:37 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on November 02, 2020, 02:53:28 PM
They're either going to be wrong or right.
this is going to be my quote of the night
Logged
Dr. Jill Biden, EdD
Patrick97
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,775
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #6 on:
November 02, 2020, 02:55:50 PM »
Why do they keep getting overwhelmingly white demos? It's 65% white that higher than in 2014.
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LimoLiberal
Sr. Member
Posts: 3,377
Political Matrix
E: -3.71, S: -4.00
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #7 on:
November 02, 2020, 02:56:04 PM »
«
Edited:
November 02, 2020, 03:11:25 PM
by
YE »
If there was a real late break to Trump, is this what it would look like? That's the question that keeps spinning through my head.
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Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 7,894
Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #8 on:
November 02, 2020, 02:57:27 PM »
«
Edited:
November 02, 2020, 03:11:05 PM
by
YE »
Other than this poll and I guess the AZ tie from Marist, mostly good polls for Biden.
Landmark has also been kind of all over the place but skewing towards Trump relative to other GA polls. So I'm not too worried about it.
Quote from: LimoLiberal on November 02, 2020, 02:56:04 PM
If there was a real late break to Trump, is this what it would look like? That's the question that keeps spinning through my head.
Considering how many people have already voted, I'm not sure it even matters anymore. Indeed whatever "tightening" we may be seeing in some polls (not all or even most) could just come down to fewer people who have already voted are responding (mostly Democrats).
Logged
Hammy
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,237
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #9 on:
November 02, 2020, 03:00:15 PM »
«
Edited:
November 02, 2020, 03:12:40 PM
by
YE »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on November 02, 2020, 02:56:04 PM
If there was a real late break to Trump, is this what it would look like? That's the question that keeps spinning through my head.
Or, as others have already pointed out, many people who have already voted
are no longer answering polls
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DrScholl
Atlas Icon
Posts: 13,015
Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #10 on:
November 02, 2020, 03:01:17 PM »
They do one day samples which is very bad for polling.
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VAR
VARepublican
YaBB God
Posts: 4,757
Political Matrix
E: 0.90, S: -1.57
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #11 on:
November 02, 2020, 03:01:38 PM »
Lief is clearly trolling.
Logged
President Joe Biden. It's OVER.
libertpaulian
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,375
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #12 on:
November 02, 2020, 03:02:11 PM »
What was their final number for Kemp/Abrams?
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emotional hardcore
BRTD
Atlas Institution
Posts: 93,328
Political Matrix
E: -6.50, S: -6.67
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #13 on:
November 02, 2020, 03:03:47 PM »
Quote from: libertpaulian on November 02, 2020, 03:02:11 PM
What was their final number for Kemp/Abrams?
Kemp +2 which is basically dead on. However it was released more than a month before election day.
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Buzz
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,038
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #14 on:
November 02, 2020, 03:05:33 PM »
Their final 2016 number was Trump +3
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 5,023
Political Matrix
E: 0.12, S: 0.10
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #15 on:
November 02, 2020, 03:06:38 PM »
Quote from: DrScholl on November 02, 2020, 03:01:17 PM
They do one day samples which is very bad for polling.
One day samples?
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wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
Posts: 8,472
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #16 on:
November 02, 2020, 03:06:41 PM »
Yes, it totally makes sense that Trump will nearly replicate hits 2016 margin here!
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BudgieForce
YaBB God
Posts: 4,103
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #17 on:
November 02, 2020, 03:07:29 PM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on November 02, 2020, 03:06:38 PM
Quote from: DrScholl on November 02, 2020, 03:01:17 PM
They do one day samples which is very bad for polling.
One day samples?
They do 1 poll over a single day.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Icon
Posts: 15,648
Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: -5.20
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #18 on:
November 02, 2020, 03:07:44 PM »
It's just not there yet
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RBH
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,210
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #19 on:
November 02, 2020, 03:10:57 PM »
Landmark's post-Labor day Georgia polls
9/30: Biden by 2
10/7: Trump by 2
10/21: Trump by 4
10/28: Trump by 1
11/1: Trump by 4
If they did a poll today, they'd probably get Trump by 1/2. Rollercoaster pollster.
Logged
Ses
jk2020
Atlas Icon
Posts: 10,650
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #20 on:
November 02, 2020, 03:15:00 PM »
They have Biden at 28.3% of WHITES. That's a win for sure if he actually gets that number; idk why they have such a white sample lol.
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SirWoodbury
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,742
Political Matrix
E: 1.48, S: 1.30
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #21 on:
November 02, 2020, 03:41:32 PM »
Lean R.
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kwabbit
Jr. Member
Posts: 421
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #22 on:
November 02, 2020, 04:12:10 PM »
Quote from: RBH on November 02, 2020, 03:10:57 PM
Landmark's post-Labor day Georgia polls
9/30: Biden by 2
10/7: Trump by 2
10/21: Trump by 4
10/28: Trump by 1
11/1: Trump by 4
If they did a poll today, they'd probably get Trump by 1/2. Rollercoaster pollster.
That kind of movement is to be expected with random sampling. In fact, it would be suspect if they kept on finding the same number (like Trafalgar getting Trump +2 in Michigan 7 times in a row). If the 'true' result for Landmark was Trump +1, then this would be completely normal and I wouldn't really say these polls say anything different from each other.
Logged
forsythvoter
Jr. Member
Posts: 697
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #23 on:
November 02, 2020, 04:43:42 PM »
GA is a really hard to poll state, because there's a huge divergence between rural (10-15% D), suburban (30-40% D), urban (60%-70% D) white voters vs. black voters (90-95% D). If you don't get the mix right, the results can easily be R+5 or D+5.
At this point, though, I doubt there's that much movement in the last 3 days. It's likely 80% or so the total vote is already in, so even a sharp last minute move won't move the needle much.
Logged
RBH
Sr. Member
Posts: 2,210
Re: GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4
«
Reply #24 on:
November 02, 2020, 05:00:45 PM »
Quote from: kwabbit on November 02, 2020, 04:12:10 PM
Quote from: RBH on November 02, 2020, 03:10:57 PM
Landmark's post-Labor day Georgia polls
9/30: Biden by 2
10/7: Trump by 2
10/21: Trump by 4
10/28: Trump by 1
11/1: Trump by 4
If they did a poll today, they'd probably get Trump by 1/2. Rollercoaster pollster.
That kind of movement is to be expected with random sampling. In fact, it would be suspect if they kept on finding the same number (like Trafalgar getting Trump +2 in Michigan 7 times in a row). If the 'true' result for Landmark was Trump +1, then this would be completely normal and I wouldn't really say these polls say anything different from each other.
having the pollster for one of the big Atlanta TV stations apparently doing one day samples is great for eye-catching polls. As for accurate data, well.. I guess if the numbers bounce around, one of them is due to be right.
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