GA (Landmark/WSBTV): Trump +4

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I hope I'm wrong, but I still see Trump eeking out a victory here, maybe by one point or less.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Georgia President by Landmark Communications on 2020-11-01

Summary: D: 46%, R: 50%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Nov 1
500 likely voters
MoE: 4.4%
Changes with Oct 28

Trump 50% (+2)
Biden 46% (-1)
Jorgensen 3% (n/c)
Undecided 1% (-1)

[Lief 🗽]

Interesting it looks like Landmark and Emerson are the only firms showing a Trump lead here, though they've done so in multiple polls this month clogging up the averages. Everyone else is either showing a tie (YouGov, Siena) or a Biden lead (Morning Consult, PPP, Monmouth, Civiqs, AJC, SurveyUSA, Quinnipiac) in their final poll.

[Hollywood]

Landmark doesn't have a Trump bias.  It is the top pollsters that conducts polls in Georgia, and it tends to nail the relative strength of parties in the state.  Although their poll have a variety of margins, a combination of their polls will be pretty close to precision.    

From polls conducted this month, Landmark has Biden capped at 47%.  Aside from one poll earlier this month, Trump is garnering 49% of the vote when you average out the last 4 polls.  They're actually very close to 50% than 49%.   I think there's a very big problem with the other pollsters utilizing these internet surveys and national populations to model results within swing states.  They're essentially oversampling Democrats and underestimating Republicans, as well as the leaners.  

BTW... Trafalgar had the race at +6 before election day.  

[Hammy]

Landmark doesn't have a Trump bias.  It is the top pollsters that conducts polls in Georgia, and it tends to nail the relative strength of parties in the state.  Although their poll have a variety of margins, a combination of their polls will be pretty close to precision.    

From polls conducted this month, Landmark has Biden capped at 47%.  Aside from one poll earlier this month, Trump is garnering 49% of the vote when you average out the last 4 polls.  They're actually very close to 50% than 49%.   I think there's a very big problem with the other pollsters utilizing these internet surveys and national populations to model results within swing states.  They're essentially oversampling Democrats and underestimating Republicans, as well as the leaners.  

BTW... Trafalgar had the race at +6 before election day.  

Georgia's not the best state to try and pitch Trafalgar--they were ten points to the right of the 2018 result here.

[Hollywood]

Landmark doesn't have a Trump bias.  It is the top pollsters that conducts polls in Georgia, and it tends to nail the relative strength of parties in the state.  Although their poll have a variety of margins, a combination of their polls will be pretty close to precision.    

From polls conducted this month, Landmark has Biden capped at 47%.  Aside from one poll earlier this month, Trump is garnering 49% of the vote when you average out the last 4 polls.  They're actually very close to 50% than 49%.   I think there's a very big problem with the other pollsters utilizing these internet surveys and national populations to model results within swing states.  They're essentially oversampling Democrats and underestimating Republicans, as well as the leaners.  

BTW... Trafalgar had the race at +6 before election day.  

Georgia's not the best state to try and pitch Trafalgar--they were ten points to the right of the 2018 result here.

lol I know.  I admit it was a bit of trolling to bring them up in the thread, but all the people trying to discredit Landmark as if there some right-wing think tank is very annoying.  Georgia is their bread and butter.  They do good in that state cause they know it.  Some of these other pollsters either polled once in 2016, or never polled it at all.  They think a few D pollsters showing Biden +5 or 6 (or morning consult +9) is more reliable than the gold standard in Georgia.  They aren't cluttering the averages.  They've actually just brought some credibility to it.     

[republican1993]

this seems very optimistic for Trump based on other polls, but i guess we will end out tomorrow.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Is this like the Selzer of Georgia?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Is this like the Selzer of Georgia?

No. It's a B-rated pollster, for one.

[Hollywood]

Is this like the Selzer of Georgia?

No. It's a B-rated pollster, for one.

I’d like to hear your second point, because it sounds to me like they are underrated.  They have similar methodologies as Selzer (which has Trump +7 in Iowa), a slightly better percentage of races called correctly, and almost as good a simple average error.  The only knock on them is that they lean too far towards the Democrats in their polling results. 

[Buzz]

Georgia gold standard.

[Sellsell]

I remember 2016. Dems gonna be crying again

[forsythvoter]

I think GA this year is a case of people are going to believe whichever data points they want to believe. Good thing we'll have election results tomorrow!

[DrScholl]

A pollster can often be labeled gold standard simply because not many other pollsters have polled the state in the past. Up until 2016 there were not many other pollsters who consistently polled in Georgia other than Landmark and this is the first cycle that they have released this many polls. In 2016 there were other polls who got the race right or at least close (Ipsos, Emerson, YouGov).

[Kalimantan]

Am I right that every poll that has been bounced so far are ones that over-estimated Biden's support? If so, I think its only fair to bounce polls like this one as well, which according to many of the posters on this thread, was meant to be 'gold standard for Georgia'

[Dr. Arch]

Georgia gold standard.

[Buzz]

Georgia gold standard.

Yep, real bad miss.  Gold standard no more!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Georgia gold standard.

Yep, real bad miss.  Gold standard no more!

4-5% is not that bad a miss considering MoE