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November 28, 2020, 08:46:46 PM
News: 2020 Election day live thread: https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=409870.0

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  TX - Data for Progress: Cornyn +3%
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Author Topic: TX - Data for Progress: Cornyn +3%  (Read 375 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« on: November 01, 2020, 09:25:35 PM »
« edited: November 01, 2020, 09:31:32 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Oct 27-Nov 1
926 likely voters
MoE: 3.2%
Changes with Oct 22-25

Cornyn 50% (+2)
Hegar 47% (+1)
Turullols-Bonilla (I [write-in]) 2% (+1)
McKennon (L) 1% (n/c)
Other candidate or write-in 0% (n/c)

Don't know previously at 3%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2020, 09:28:25 PM »

The Cornyn over performance is getting weird when it's still +4% in polls where undecided voters have practically been eliminated and we're days away from the election. I know some voters will default for the incumbent if they're not aware of the challenger to the extent that positive name recognition is still a thing, but I'd assume partisanship would win out there considering the unremarkable incumbent.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2020, 09:33:58 PM »

If any candidate wins this year without leading in any polls, it's going to be Hegar.
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Lief 🐋
Lief
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« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2020, 09:36:31 PM »

New Poll: Texas Senator by Data 4 Progress on 2020-11-01

Summary: D: 50%, R: 47%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2020, 10:01:55 PM »

HEGAR wins
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charcuterie
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« Reply #5 on: November 01, 2020, 10:30:05 PM »

If any candidate wins this year without leading in any polls, it's going to be Hegar.
Wasn't there a single no-name poll where she was up by 1 in the last week? Or am I fabricating that?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #6 on: November 01, 2020, 10:36:31 PM »

If any candidate wins this year without leading in any polls, it's going to be Hegar.
Wasn't there a single no-name poll where she was up by 1 in the last week? Or am I fabricating that?

A result with the wrong weighting was released. The result with the correct version had her down by 0.2%.
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charcuterie
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« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2020, 10:42:52 PM »

If any candidate wins this year without leading in any polls, it's going to be Hegar.
Wasn't there a single no-name poll where she was up by 1 in the last week? Or am I fabricating that?

A result with the wrong weighting was released. The result with the correct version had her down by 0.2%.
Ah woops, well then I agree with EastOfEden's comment in that case.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2020, 09:53:46 AM »

I think Cornyn and James were the only R candidates to outraise their D opponents during the whole cycle atleast. This is one reason why I think Cornyn(narrowly) wins while Trump narrowly loses Texas.

Perhaps D resistance low info voters felt  disappointed in Beto losing after that much money being spent so they gave all their #resistance cash to Amy Mcgrath instead?
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Southern Governor Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2020, 05:06:09 PM »

Polls like this are why I expect MJ to lose by a smaller-than-expected margin but still lose.
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One Term Floridian
swamiG
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2020, 05:07:44 PM »

I think that overall Hegar does a little worse than Beto 2018. But is that good enough for a Biden upset?
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Harris/Shalala 2024
cuddlebuns
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2020, 05:10:21 PM »

I do not for a second believe that a random write-in senate candidate is getting 2%. Gonna chalk that up to low-info Hispanic voters siding with the Hispanic-sounding name (a la Sema Hernandez in 2018)
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