TX - Data for Progress: Cornyn +3%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Oct 27-Nov 1
926 likely voters
MoE: 3.2%
Changes with Oct 22-25

Cornyn 50% (+2)
Hegar 47% (+1)
Turullols-Bonilla (I [write-in]) 2% (+1)
McKennon (L) 1% (n/c)
Other candidate or write-in 0% (n/c)

Don't know previously at 3%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Cornyn over performance is getting weird when it's still +4% in polls where undecided voters have practically been eliminated and we're days away from the election. I know some voters will default for the incumbent if they're not aware of the challenger to the extent that positive name recognition is still a thing, but I'd assume partisanship would win out there considering the unremarkable incumbent.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If any candidate wins this year without leading in any polls, it's going to be Hegar.

Wasn't there a single no-name poll where she was up by 1 in the last week? Or am I fabricating that?

A result with the wrong weighting was released. The result with the correct version had her down by 0.2%.