TX - Data for Progress: Cornyn +3% (user search)
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  TX - Data for Progress: Cornyn +3% (search mode)
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Author Topic: TX - Data for Progress: Cornyn +3%  (Read 1968 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,131


« on: November 01, 2020, 09:25:35 PM »
« edited: November 01, 2020, 09:31:32 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »

Oct 27-Nov 1
926 likely voters
MoE: 3.2%
Changes with Oct 22-25

Cornyn 50% (+2)
Hegar 47% (+1)
Turullols-Bonilla (I [write-in]) 2% (+1)
McKennon (L) 1% (n/c)
Other candidate or write-in 0% (n/c)

Don't know previously at 3%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,131


« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2020, 09:28:25 PM »

The Cornyn over performance is getting weird when it's still +4% in polls where undecided voters have practically been eliminated and we're days away from the election. I know some voters will default for the incumbent if they're not aware of the challenger to the extent that positive name recognition is still a thing, but I'd assume partisanship would win out there considering the unremarkable incumbent.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,131


« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2020, 10:36:31 PM »

If any candidate wins this year without leading in any polls, it's going to be Hegar.
Wasn't there a single no-name poll where she was up by 1 in the last week? Or am I fabricating that?

A result with the wrong weighting was released. The result with the correct version had her down by 0.2%.
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