2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Gren]

NC is looking really good for Biden, isn't it? I think the swing is going to be big in Mecklenburg&Wake, both because of new voters&swing from R to D in wealthy, educated areas. There already was a big shift in South Charlotte in 2016 and I expect that to continue.

Yes, really think NC (and GA?) are going Dem while FL is staying with Trump.

I think Florida is going down to the wire, but Biden will eventually win it. Could be wrong, though.

[kireev]

NC share of non-2016 voters over recent days has been impressive. On Friday 40% of voters did not vote in 2016, yesterday 45% of voters did not vote in 2016.

It's one of the biggest stories of this cycle, which needs to be discussed more. The share of new voters in NC, GA and FL (states that report it) is in the upper 20s and has been growing every day as early vote progresses so it may hit 30% at the end. In these three states the share of new voters should be higher than in the North, but still it looks like it will be over 20% overall compared to 10% in 2016.  Yet, polls usually do not show such high percentage of new voters. That could be a reason why polls are underestimating Biden's support.

[Donerail]

There are a lot of voters left in Florida — not anything close to what it's been in the past, but certainly enough to wipe out a 90,000 vote advantage

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1322940513385816064

[Flabuckeye]

There are a lot of voters left in Florida — not anything close to what it's been in the past, but certainly enough to wipe out a 90,000 vote advantage

But this underestimates any NPA effect.  

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1322944047703576576?s=21

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1322944047703576576?s=21

atleast the divides not so stark this election. Its all what left in the mail and ED voting

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1322940513385816064

Looks like Biden is in a good position to win Nevada.

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1322940513385816064

I will now accept my accolades. Biden will easily win NV, even if the election is closer than expected.

[Donerail]

There are a lot of voters left in Florida — not anything close to what it's been in the past, but certainly enough to wipe out a 90,000 vote advantage

But this underestimates any NPA effect.  

We have no idea how much NPAs will break to Biden — they definitely will, but by what margin? If the GOP e-day advantage is 200,000 votes and NPAs only go to Biden by three points, you still have a gap of 140,000 to make up with early/VBMs; if Biden wins NPAs by 15, which I think is the highest I've seen in any poll, it's basically over.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1322940513385816064

Let’s hope the machine comes back in full force in 2022 when Nevada will be one of the four or five states Dems are on the defensive in.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

What was the partisan numbers heading into Election Day in Florida in 2016?

[Buzz]

What was the partisan numbers heading into Election Day in Florida in 2016?

Dems were up by 96k

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/politico_steve/status/1322940024237731840?s=21

97% of NC votes will be counted on E Day. Unless it's Florida 2000ing it, we'll have an E Day Call.

[wbrocks67]

There are a lot of voters left in Florida — not anything close to what it's been in the past, but certainly enough to wipe out a 90,000 vote advantage

I mean, of course there is a ton of voters left, but that doesn't mean they are going to come out. We're already nearly at 100% of 2016 turnout. We're not going to have a magical like 3 million more come out of the woodwork on Tuesday. Turnout will be up from 2016, but it's clear a high majority of voters have already voted.

[wbrocks67]

What was the partisan numbers heading into Election Day in Florida in 2016?

Dems were up by 96k

Dems in better position now though, after cannibalization.

How many EV votes were in 2016? I'd rather be up +100K with 9 million cast than +96K with 6 million cast.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Should I be concerned about those Florida numbers? I know that Biden can win easily without Florida just wondering.

[forsythvoter]

I think FL is clearly headed for a close finish, but I'm really skeptical there are too many voters left to vote on election day in FL (and many other states).  I think it's going to come down to NPAs.

I think turnout in FL will probably be somewhere around 10.5-11M. If 9M have already voted by election day, that leaves 1.5-2M voters left. If Ds enter election day with a 100K vote edge, and let's say Rs have a 15 point edge among the voting population on election day (some polls show it much closer, but lets assume). Rs will net 200-300K votes on election day itself.

This means that Rs will be 100-200K votes ahead in partisan identification after all this is said and done (which wouldn't be that shocking given that's about their partisan advantage in the overall electorate and both parties are turning out at about the same level). There will probably be 3M or so NPA ballots, so Biden would either have to win NPAs by 5-7 points (polls show him up by varying amounts), or get a higher crossover by Rs than Trump gets among Ds (polls have shown this, especially among older white seniors).

[wbrocks67]

Should I be concerned about those Florida numbers? I know that Biden can win easily without Florida just wondering.

We are nearly at 100% of 2016 total turnout and Dems still have party ID edge with a likely lead among NPAs.

[indietraveler]

What competitive states still have voting today? I know parts of Florida...

[GP270watch]

What was the partisan numbers heading into Election Day in Florida in 2016?

Dems were up by 96k

Dems in better position now though, after cannibalization.

How many EV votes were in 2016? I'd rather be up +100K with 9 million cast than +96K with 6 million cast.

Florida 2016 votes cast method.

Election Day - 2,959,085
Early Vote - 3,876,753
Vote by Mail - 2,758,617

 On election day Trump made up a deficit of nearly 250k voters(96k Party ID lead) to win by about 113K votes.

Florida 2018 votes cast method.

Election Day - 2,585,359
Early Voting - 2,681,708
Vote by Mail - 2,585,359

 Democrats had a party ID lead of 31,641 and Rick Scott won the Senate by about 10K and DeSantis won the Governorship of Florida by about 33k.

[ExSky]

What was the partisan numbers heading into Election Day in Florida in 2016?

Dems were up by 96k

Dems in better position now though, after cannibalization.

How many EV votes were in 2016? I'd rather be up +100K with 9 million cast than +96K with 6 million cast.

Quite true. There simply aren’t that many more votes to juice in a high turnout state like Florida. GOP simply does not have the votes left to mine to overcome the Dem return advantage + the NPA’s breaking to Biden. EV for the republicans while it lasted, but it ended the possibility of a surge on ED.

Trunk needed 3 million Election Day votes net around 350k and beat Clinton. He likely has to overcome around the same 250k lead, factoring in NPA’s, with what? Maybe 600k ED votes?

[Donerail]

There are a lot of voters left in Florida — not anything close to what it's been in the past, but certainly enough to wipe out a 90,000 vote advantage

I mean, of course there is a ton of voters left, but that doesn't mean they are going to come out. We're already nearly at 100% of 2016 turnout. We're not going to have a magical like 3 million more come out of the woodwork on Tuesday. Turnout will be up from 2016, but it's clear a high majority of voters have already voted.

I am talking specifically about voters whose history indicates they are going to vote on Tuesday. You are not going to have 3 million more — nobody here has made a claim anywhere in that ballpark — but a few hundred thousand more Republicans.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1322956956596928512?s=20

My thoughts on the M-D fear-splaining as well. Theres a lot of low-income minority Dems here, which means more E-Day voters. Meanwhile the GOP Hispanics are all reasonably situated, so they are more likely to vote early.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

What was the partisan numbers heading into Election Day in Florida in 2016?

Dems were up by 96k

Dems in better position now though, after cannibalization.

How many EV votes were in 2016? I'd rather be up +100K with 9 million cast than +96K with 6 million cast.

Quite true. There simply aren’t that many more votes to juice in a high turnout state like Florida. GOP simply does not have the votes left to mine to overcome the Dem return advantage + the NPA’s breaking to Biden. EV for the republicans while it lasted, but it ended the possibility of a surge on ED.

Trunk needed 3 million Election Day votes net around 350k and beat Clinton. He likely has to overcome around the same 250k lead, factoring in NPA’s, with what? Maybe 600k ED votes?

I’m not so confident that the margin can’t be made up. We’re heading to historic turnout. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw 2 million more people come out in Florida on Election Day.