2020 Absentee/Early Voting megathread 2

[Non Swing Voter]

https://www.miamidade.gov/elections/earlyvoting/wait-times.asp

this shows wait times today.  Looks like zero everywhere right now but fairly long wait in Hialeah.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://www.ocfelections.com/early-voting-locations

long wait times in Orange County.  This has to be good for Dems right?

[swf541]

https://www.ocfelections.com/early-voting-locations

long wait times in Orange County.  This has to be good for Dems right?

Should be

[ExSky]

Aww where did Buzz and Jessica go. Florida isn’t going the way you thought...must be so sad.

I’m right here lol

Why aren’t you posting about the numbers anymore Buzz? You were so confident a few days ago? Why did you stop all of a sudden? Whatever could it be?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Aww where did Buzz and Jessica go. Florida isn’t going the way you thought...must be so sad.

I’m right here lol

Why aren’t you posting about the numbers anymore Buzz? You were so confident a few days ago? Why did you stop all of a sudden? Whatever could it be?

To be fair, Buzz has been one of the more consistently sensible voices of the right here. 

[wbrocks67]

With one last day of EV to go in mostly Dem-leaning places, and 8.7 million votes cast, Dems still have a +1.1% lead on GOP.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1322911513301159942

[ExSky]

Aww where did Buzz and Jessica go. Florida isn’t going the way you thought...must be so sad.

I’m right here lol

Why aren’t you posting about the numbers anymore Buzz? You were so confident a few days ago? Why did you stop all of a sudden? Whatever could it be?

To be fair, Buzz has been one of the more consistently sensible voices of the right here. 

That hasn’t stopped him from being the absolute most hypocritical.

[The Mikado]

People, can we restrict the epic dunking for 72 hours until we're actually sure who should be dunked?

[7,052,770]

People, can we restrict the epic dunking for 72 hours until we're actually sure who should be dunked?

No!

[Brittain33]

Aww where did Buzz and Jessica go. Florida isn’t going the way you thought...must be so sad.

I’m right here lol

Why aren’t you posting about the numbers anymore Buzz? You were so confident a few days ago? Why did you stop all of a sudden? Whatever could it be?

Let's not group Buzz with Jessica. Jessica's a troll, Buzz is just a Republican.

[Beet]

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1322712461724672000

[Flabuckeye]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Dems and Reps nearly tied for turnout....however, higher registration gives Dems 94,905 lead...nearly identical to close of 2016 EV.....but some 2 million votes later.

8,700,645 votes cast in Florida so far compared to entire 2016 election of 9,420,039 leaving 700K votes to surpass 2016.

Dems 64.3% (+2.5)
Reps  64.1% (+3.0)
NPAs  49.4% (+2.9)




All counties now blowing past 2016 Dem EV turnout in route to total turnout

Fun fact,  in 15 of Florida's 68 counties, Democrats have already surpassed Hillary Clinton's 2016 Total votes for the county....and this is without ANY NPAs or Rs.

[Buzz]

Aww where did Buzz and Jessica go. Florida isn’t going the way you thought...must be so sad.

I’m right here lol

Why aren’t you posting about the numbers anymore Buzz? You were so confident a few days ago? Why did you stop all of a sudden? Whatever could it be?

Fine here ya go.  Most GOP counties are closed today fwiw
https://twitter.com/danumbersguy/status/1322887981104009218?s=21

[Non Swing Voter]

Florida Turnout Tracker

Dems and Reps nearly tied for turnout....however, higher registration gives Dems 94,905 lead...nearly identical to close of 2016 EV.....but some 2 million votes later.

8,700,645 votes cast in Florida so far compared to entire 2016 election of 9,420,039 leaving 700K votes to surpass 2016.

Dems 64.3% (+2.5)
Reps  64.1% (+3.0)
NPAs  49.4% (+2.9)




All counties now blowing past 2016 Dem EV turnout in route to total turnout

Fun fact,  in 15 of Florida's 68 counties, Democrats have already surpassed Hillary Clinton's 2016 Total votes for the county....and this is without ANY NPAs or Rs.

Looks like Dems are definitely getting into the 65-70% turnout range by the end of early voting. 

It's going to be interesting to see the Miami-Dade numbers today.

[ultraviolet]

Aww where did Buzz and Jessica go. Florida isn’t going the way you thought...must be so sad.

I’m right here lol

Why aren’t you posting about the numbers anymore Buzz? You were so confident a few days ago? Why did you stop all of a sudden? Whatever could it be?

Fine here ya go.  Most GOP counties are closed today fwiw
https://twitter.com/danumbersguy/status/1322887981104009218?s=21

Wait wait wait. Did you post his first update from 2 hours ago instead of the update from an hour ago showing a massive shift to the Dems.

I can practically feel the pathetic desperation.

Go ahead Buzz. Post that one. I’ll wait

Stop harassing Buzz

[Non Swing Voter]

Aww where did Buzz and Jessica go. Florida isn’t going the way you thought...must be so sad.

I’m right here lol

Why aren’t you posting about the numbers anymore Buzz? You were so confident a few days ago? Why did you stop all of a sudden? Whatever could it be?

Fine here ya go.  Most GOP counties are closed today fwiw
https://twitter.com/danumbersguy/status/1322887981104009218?s=21

Considering that doesn't include Miami-Dade and it's before Church service ends, those numbers look really good for Dems, right?

[Buzz]

Aww where did Buzz and Jessica go. Florida isn’t going the way you thought...must be so sad.

I’m right here lol

Why aren’t you posting about the numbers anymore Buzz? You were so confident a few days ago? Why did you stop all of a sudden? Whatever could it be?

Fine here ya go.  Most GOP counties are closed today fwiw
https://twitter.com/danumbersguy/status/1322887981104009218?s=21

Considering that doesn't include Miami-Dade and it's before Church service ends, those numbers look really good for Dems, right?

I’m not sure if I would say “really” but there better for Dems than R’s for sure.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Aww where did Buzz and Jessica go. Florida isn’t going the way you thought...must be so sad.

I’m right here lol

Why aren’t you posting about the numbers anymore Buzz? You were so confident a few days ago? Why did you stop all of a sudden? Whatever could it be?

Fine here ya go.  Most GOP counties are closed today fwiw
https://twitter.com/danumbersguy/status/1322887981104009218?s=21

Considering that doesn't include Miami-Dade and it's before Church service ends, those numbers look really good for Dems, right?

No, dems should be leading in early vote today, and by a significant margin. But it’s early. Let’s wait until tomorrow to judge. It’s possible dems haven’t turned out because of Church and no Miami-Dade.

Republicans should get pretty big turnout on Election Day. I’m hoping dems can keep republicans to only a 3% party registration lead at the end of voting. I think a 3% R lead or less would produce a Biden win in FL

[wbrocks67]

Aww where did Buzz and Jessica go. Florida isn’t going the way you thought...must be so sad.

I’m right here lol

Why aren’t you posting about the numbers anymore Buzz? You were so confident a few days ago? Why did you stop all of a sudden? Whatever could it be?

Fine here ya go.  Most GOP counties are closed today fwiw
https://twitter.com/danumbersguy/status/1322887981104009218?s=21

Considering that doesn't include Miami-Dade and it's before Church service ends, those numbers look really good for Dems, right?

No, dems should be leading in early vote today, and by a significant margin. But it’s early. Let’s wait until tomorrow to judge. It’s possible dems haven’t turned out because of Church and no Miami-Dade.

Republicans should get pretty big turnout on Election Day. I’m hoping dems can keep republicans to only a 3% party registration lead at the end of voting. I think a 3% R lead or less would produce a Biden win in FL

There's no reason to expect a giant election day turnout from either side at this point. After today, FL will be about 95% of 2016 total turnout. It may be more Rep on ED, but both sides have cannibalized a ton of their voters.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Aww where did Buzz and Jessica go. Florida isn’t going the way you thought...must be so sad.

I’m right here lol

Why aren’t you posting about the numbers anymore Buzz? You were so confident a few days ago? Why did you stop all of a sudden? Whatever could it be?

Fine here ya go.  Most GOP counties are closed today fwiw
https://twitter.com/danumbersguy/status/1322887981104009218?s=21

Considering that doesn't include Miami-Dade and it's before Church service ends, those numbers look really good for Dems, right?

No, dems should be leading in early vote today, and by a significant margin. But it’s early. Let’s wait until tomorrow to judge. It’s possible dems haven’t turned out because of Church and no Miami-Dade.

Republicans should get pretty big turnout on Election Day. I’m hoping dems can keep republicans to only a 3% party registration lead at the end of voting. I think a 3% R lead or less would produce a Biden win in FL

There's no reason to expect a giant election day turnout from either side at this point. After today, FL will be about 95% of 2016 total turnout. It may be more Rep on ED, but both sides have cannibalized a ton of their voters.

You’re right. I meant big turnout relative to dems. NYT/Siena says that 63% of repubs who plan to vote in FL have already voted, compared to 82% of dems.

[Non Swing Voter]

Aww where did Buzz and Jessica go. Florida isn’t going the way you thought...must be so sad.

I’m right here lol

Why aren’t you posting about the numbers anymore Buzz? You were so confident a few days ago? Why did you stop all of a sudden? Whatever could it be?

Fine here ya go.  Most GOP counties are closed today fwiw
https://twitter.com/danumbersguy/status/1322887981104009218?s=21

Considering that doesn't include Miami-Dade and it's before Church service ends, those numbers look really good for Dems, right?

No, dems should be leading in early vote today, and by a significant margin. But it’s early. Let’s wait until tomorrow to judge. It’s possible dems haven’t turned out because of Church and no Miami-Dade.

Republicans should get pretty big turnout on Election Day. I’m hoping dems can keep republicans to only a 3% party registration lead at the end of voting. I think a 3% R lead or less would produce a Biden win in FL

There's no reason to expect a giant election day turnout from either side at this point. After today, FL will be about 95% of 2016 total turnout. It may be more Rep on ED, but both sides have cannibalized a ton of their voters.

You’re right. I meant big turnout relative to dems. NYT/Siena says that 63% of repubs who plan to vote in FL have already voted, compared to 82% of dems.

Those numbers are both probably too low.  Like he said, the Election Day vote is being really cannibalized here.  Dems had a 90k vote advantage from early vote in 2016 which was wiped away on Election Day, however way fewer people voted early that year.  There are just not as many voters left (on either side).

[Non Swing Voter]

North Carolina update:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/NC.html

Remarkable numbers from Charlotte and Wake/Durham.

[n1240]

NC share of non-2016 voters over recent days has been impressive. On Friday 40% of voters did not vote in 2016, yesterday 45% of voters did not vote in 2016.

[Gren]

NC is looking really good for Biden, isn't it? I think the swing is going to be big in Mecklenburg&Wake, both because of new voters&swing from R to D in wealthy, educated areas. There already was a big shift in South Charlotte in 2016 and I expect that to continue.

[Skill and Chance]

NC is looking really good for Biden, isn't it? I think the swing is going to be big in Mecklenburg&Wake, both because of new voters&swing from R to D in wealthy, educated areas. There already was a big shift in South Charlotte in 2016 and I expect that to continue.

Yes, really think NC (and GA?) are going Dem while FL is staying with Trump.