KS-NYT/Siena: Marshall +4
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October 20, 2021, 05:14:20 AM

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  KS-NYT/Siena: Marshall +4
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Author Topic: KS-NYT/Siena: Marshall +4  (Read 831 times)
VAR
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« on: October 22, 2020, 12:05:10 PM »

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VAR
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2020, 12:06:20 PM »

Favorabilities:
Bollier: 45/41 (+4)
Marshall: 48/37 (+11)
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2020, 12:07:06 PM »

Marshall is gonna win this
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2020, 12:08:29 PM »

Not a bad poll for Bollier. Still hoping for a shocker here
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The D in CDU stands for disarray
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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2020, 12:08:42 PM »

Really seems like the R internal showing Marshall up by double digits was an outlier. Lean R.
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Skye
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« Reply #5 on: October 22, 2020, 12:10:29 PM »

The race Leans R. I just don't think there are enough voters willing to cross the aisle for Bollier to win.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #6 on: October 22, 2020, 12:10:46 PM »

Marshall will probably win by 5-7 points.
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Xing
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« Reply #7 on: October 22, 2020, 12:11:16 PM »

Not the kind of numbers Bollier needs.
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #8 on: October 22, 2020, 12:11:23 PM »

A Bollier win is still possible, but this was always going to be a reach without Kobach.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #9 on: October 22, 2020, 12:13:59 PM »

No way marshall loses with that favorability spread. The GOP's negative ads succeeded in defining Bollier. Plus, people hate party flippers.
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indietraveler
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« Reply #10 on: October 22, 2020, 12:16:53 PM »

Overall I never bought into the idea that this seat was in play, especially in a presidential year. With the margin that Trump will likely win by it just never made sense that there would be enough Trump/Bollier voters.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: October 22, 2020, 12:19:36 PM »

Overall I never bought into the idea that this seat was in play, especially in a presidential year. With the margin that Trump will likely win by it just never made sense that there would be enough Trump/Bollier voters.

Bollier is down only 4 with 12% undecided/other, and undecideds leaning Dem.

Huh
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Pollster
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« Reply #12 on: October 22, 2020, 12:20:18 PM »

This lines pretty closely up with what we've been seeing - both candidates really struggling to break out of the mid-40's. It's been a very hard race to get a clear pulse on or for either candidate to really generate momentum in.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: October 22, 2020, 12:25:05 PM »

This lines pretty closely up with what we've been seeing - both candidates really struggling to break out of the mid-40's. It's been a very hard race to get a clear pulse on or for either candidate to really generate momentum in.

Interesting. Lines up with the PPP poll too where it was 43-43.

This could be where Bollier's $$$ comes in handy. Marshall is getting a lot of outside help but he still raised $10M less than Bollier last Q.
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MicheŠl Bennet
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« Reply #14 on: October 22, 2020, 12:35:51 PM »

Nate very obviously delayed this poll an extra day so he could cook it. JUNK!
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2020, 12:41:49 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2020, 12:45:32 PM by MR. KAYNE WEST »

This lines pretty closely up with what we've been seeing - both candidates really struggling to break out of the mid-40's. It's been a very hard race to get a clear pulse on or for either candidate to really generate momentum in.

Interesting. Lines up with the PPP poll too where it was 43-43.

This could be where Bollier's $$$ comes in handy. Marshall is getting a lot of outside help but he still raised $10M less than Bollier last Q.

PPP polled KS which is next door to MO, but if Bollier was doing that well, why haven't they polled the MO gov race. KS and MO are both similar and Marshall isn't Kobach


D's aren't winning 60 seats the probably win 51/55 seats, that's why Gross and HEGAR are losing. MT, AZ, CO, GA R,.GA S, IA, ME and SC are tops, that's 8 seats max
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2020, 12:46:01 PM »

This lines pretty closely up with what we've been seeing - both candidates really struggling to break out of the mid-40's. It's been a very hard race to get a clear pulse on or for either candidate to really generate momentum in.
Basically the exact same story in KS polling in 2018 and Kelly ended up winning by a decent margin on election day. So folks writing this off are silly.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2020, 12:48:51 PM »

This lines pretty closely up with what we've been seeing - both candidates really struggling to break out of the mid-40's. It's been a very hard race to get a clear pulse on or for either candidate to really generate momentum in.
Basically the exact same story in KS polling in 2018 and Kelly ended up winning by a decent margin on election day. So folks writing this off are silly.

Dems aren't winning more than 8 seats and that's the max, AK, TX and KS are stretch seats, Bullock and Greenfield always had a better chance than Bollier,, but even MT is stretch
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2020, 12:57:29 PM »

October 18-20
755 likely voters
MoE: 4%

Buckley (L) 4%
Someone else 1%
Not voting for Senate 1%
Don't know/Refused 6%
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Pollster
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2020, 01:01:46 PM »

This lines pretty closely up with what we've been seeing - both candidates really struggling to break out of the mid-40's. It's been a very hard race to get a clear pulse on or for either candidate to really generate momentum in.
Basically the exact same story in KS polling in 2018 and Kelly ended up winning by a decent margin on election day. So folks writing this off are silly.

Do remember that Greg Orman was a factor in that race - his 7% was enough to make mid-40's enough to win.

Definitely silly to write off this race, but Bollier is certainly not in the same position Kelly was.
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« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2020, 01:04:43 PM »

This lines pretty closely up with what we've been seeing - both candidates really struggling to break out of the mid-40's. It's been a very hard race to get a clear pulse on or for either candidate to really generate momentum in.
Basically the exact same story in KS polling in 2018 and Kelly ended up winning by a decent margin on election day. So folks writing this off are silly.

Governors races are a totally different animal from Senate races. People are much more willing to cross party lines for a Governor, in particular when the Governor would be a check on 1 party control.

The reality is that Bollier is going to lose, and TBH she would also lose if she were polling a bit up/competitively, the same way that Greg Orman lost KS, the same way Phil Bredeson lost TN, etc etc.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #21 on: October 22, 2020, 02:02:03 PM »

A few weeks ago we saw a rash of polls that showed the possibility of a bunch of Dem pick ups. Now thatís coming back to earth and it appears likely the core 4 will be the only ones that can flip

This race in particular just didnít seem reasonable. Youíd need a ton of ticket splitting
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President Johnson
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« Reply #22 on: October 22, 2020, 02:04:06 PM »
« Edited: October 22, 2020, 02:34:04 PM by President Johnson »

Still a strong Lean Republican, but remarkable how Marshall constantly fails to reach 50%.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2020, 02:05:58 PM »

Dems whom think D's are gonna win 60 aren't living in reality, best chance outside of core four are IA, SC and MT of course GA
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2020, 02:30:35 PM »

Based on what I've seen on the airwaves, I'm shocked to see Marshall have better numbers than Bollier. No way he loses if that trend continues. Also a positive that he is only running 3 points behind Trump. I'd rate the race as Lean Marshall, but still room for movement.
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