This lines pretty closely up with what we've been seeing - both candidates really struggling to break out of the mid-40's. It's been a very hard race to get a clear pulse on or for either candidate to really generate momentum in.
Basically the exact same story in KS polling in 2018 and Kelly ended up winning by a decent margin on election day. So folks writing this off are silly.
Governors races are a totally different animal from Senate races. People are much more willing to cross party lines for a Governor, in particular when the Governor would be a check on 1 party control.
The reality is that Bollier is going to lose, and TBH she would also lose if she were polling a bit up/competitively, the same way that Greg Orman lost KS, the same way Phil Bredeson lost TN, etc etc.