KS-NYT/Siena: Marshall +4

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Marshall is gonna win this

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This lines pretty closely up with what we've been seeing - both candidates really struggling to break out of the mid-40's. It's been a very hard race to get a clear pulse on or for either candidate to really generate momentum in.

Interesting. Lines up with the PPP poll too where it was 43-43.

This could be where Bollier's $$$ comes in handy. Marshall is getting a lot of outside help but he still raised $10M less than Bollier last Q.

PPP polled KS which is next door to MO, but if Bollier was doing that well, why haven't they polled the MO gov race. KS and MO are both similar and Marshall isn't Kobach


D's aren't winning 60 seats the probably win 51/55 seats, that's why Gross and HEGAR are losing. MT, AZ, CO, GA R,.GA S, IA, ME and SC are tops, that's 8 seats max

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This lines pretty closely up with what we've been seeing - both candidates really struggling to break out of the mid-40's. It's been a very hard race to get a clear pulse on or for either candidate to really generate momentum in.

Basically the exact same story in KS polling in 2018 and Kelly ended up winning by a decent margin on election day. So folks writing this off are silly.

Dems aren't winning more than 8 seats and that's the max, AK, TX and KS are stretch seats, Bullock and Greenfield always had a better chance than Bollier,, but even MT is stretch

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems whom think D's are gonna win 60 aren't living in reality, best chance outside of core four are IA, SC and MT of course GA

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One poll that shows a race within 4% with tons of undecides doesn't make it safe. I thought we learned the lessons of 2016, I guess not.

But you have KS colored red on your map, all we are saying that if D's don't get a Supermajority, it's not a letdown, we should be happy with what we have 51/55 seats

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

One poll that shows a race within 4% with tons of undecides doesn't make it safe. I thought we learned the lessons of 2016, I guess not.

But you have KS colored red on your map, all we are saying that if D's don't get a Supermajority, it's not a letdown, we should be happy with what we have 51/55 seats

Yes, it's red on my map, But Bollier still has a solid 1/4 chance

Why don't you do predictions on the website, it's easy to log in

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We are gonna have the results come in pretty soon but Progressive moderate still has KS colored red on his map and doesn't make a prediction.

We have already made our endorsements and everyone has already have endorsed Bollier

Ratings

Lean D takeover
AZ, CO, ME, NC, SC
Tossup AK, GA, IA, KS, MT
Safe R AL, KY and TX

KS, AK and MT are Tossups not Lean D, there is a difference