COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[GeorgiaModerate]

Bandit's posts in this thread come across to me with an almost aggressive tone along the lines of "the pandemic is over, there's no point in worrying about it anymore or any need for further measures to mitigate it, and anyone who thinks there is such a need is foolish".  Whether he fully means this I can't say; it's always possible to misinterpret the tone in written communications that lack cues from voice and body language.  But that's the way they read to me, and from their comments I suspect that some others see them the same way.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

Forgive me, but I don't know how much I trust Florida's data.

The only reason people put particular doubt in Florida's data is because a lady with a rotten moral compass decided to grift and categorically claim that DeSantis was tampering with it and she was a victim, a narrative that to anyone simultaneously clear-minded and well-informed on the topic, is a bunch of bull.
People like her are actively harmful to public health.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If you are seriously "pro-science" in any principled way, a prerequisite for that is to trust FL's covid data.
Can you walk the walk? Yes or no?

[emailking]

If you are seriously "pro-science" in any principled way, a prerequisite for that is to trust FL's covid data.
Can you walk the walk? Yes or no?

Whether Florida's data are right or wrong, trusting them is not a prerequisite for doing science.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If you are seriously "pro-science" in any principled way, a prerequisite for that is to trust FL's covid data.
Can you walk the walk? Yes or no?

Whether Florida's data are right or wrong, trusting them is not a prerequisite for doing science.

Being "pro-science" in relation to how you see the pandemic does imply you reject things on par on QAnon conspiracy, no?

[emailking]

If you are seriously "pro-science" in any principled way, a prerequisite for that is to trust FL's covid data.
Can you walk the walk? Yes or no?

Whether Florida's data are right or wrong, trusting them is not a prerequisite for doing science.

Being "pro-science" in relation to how you see the pandemic does imply you reject things on par on QAnon conspiracy, no?

I assumed you were talking about whether the deaths in FL were an undercount or not.

[Pericles]

Most death tolls are an undercount but I don't see why Florida's would be particularly large.

[Person Man]

Most death tolls are an undercount but I don't see why Florida's would be particularly large.

There are suspicions that there might be and though they were somewhat addressed to a point, it was done in such an authoritarian way that I feel there is still an element of “trust me, broh” with the statistics.

[emailking]

Two dose version of Johnson & Johnson shot 94% effective against Covid-19, study finds

A two-dose version of Johnson & Johnson's coronavirus vaccine provides 94% protection against symptomatic infection, the company said Tuesday -- making a two-dose regimen of J&J's Janssen vaccine comparable to a two-dose regimen of Moderna's or Pfizer's.

Plus, the company said, adding a booster dose to a single shot of the vaccine raised immunity even more, and should also protect people strongly against infection.

The company released some details of three studies looking at various aspects of its Janssen vaccine, and said that, taken together, they showed the vaccine provided long-lasting protection that could be boosted with an extra shot.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/21/health/johnson-vaccine-two-doses-booster/index.html

[Del Tachi]

The US death toll from Covid-19 just surpassed that of the 1918 flu pandemic

Despite all the scientific and medical advances of the past 103 years, the Covid-19 pandemic has now killed more Americans than the 1918 flu pandemic did.

More than 675,000 people in the United States have died from Covid-19, according to Johns Hopkins University. That surpasses the estimated US death toll from the deadliest pandemic of the 20th century.

"If you would have talked to me in 2019, I would have said I'd be surprised," said epidemiologist Stephen Kissler of the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health.

"But if you talked to me in probably April or May 2020, I would say I would not be surprised we'd hit this point."

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/20/health/us-covid-deaths-surpass-1918-pandemic/index.html

This is the official death toll from Covid -19 so far, the actual number are much higher as alot of them don't get counted

Population adjustment would suggest that far, far fewer Americans have died of COVID-19 than the Spanish flu. 

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Population adjustment would suggest that far, far fewer Americans have died of COVID-19 than the Spanish flu.

Yeah, that is really the proper comparison, for purposes of looking at how bad it was relatively in terms of policy etc. Of course, in terms of raw human suffering, the raw absolute number of dead is certainly a relevant metric.

BTW, this is also a reminder of just how bad a real modern war could be. If you thought World War 1 and World War 2 were bad, just consider that world population has grown massively since either of those... A modern war - a real war, not something minor like disturbances we have seen in places like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria over the past twenty years - on the scale of the earlier World Wars could lead to devastation and destruction of a magnitude that nobody can truly contemplate or truly understand. Good thing we have avoided that. So far.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

A few weeks ago, I posted a ranking from a spreadsheet that estimates the percentage of people who are immune in every state, based on vaccination and case numbers found on websites. This is the latest ranking, which I just compiled:

New Mexico   87.64
Rhode Island   86.04
Arizona   84.85
Florida   84.55
New Jersey   84.11
New York   82.48
Massachusetts   82.28
Connecticut   81.97
Mississippi   81.91
Georgia   81.48
Nevada   81.24
California   80.89
Texas   80.87
Lousiana   80.25
Alabama   80.05
Delaware   79.61
Arkansas   79.50
Tennessee   78.74
District of Columbia   78.55
South Dakota   78.45
Oklahoma   77.98
Maryland   77.83
Illinois   77.53
Puerto Rico   77.44
South Carolina   77.02
Colorado   76.79
Kentucky   76.48
Pennsylvania   76.05
Kansas   75.75
North Dakota   75.27
Vermont   74.92
Maine   74.62
Virginia   74.51
Utah   74.26
Washington   74.21
North Carolina   74.06
Iowa   74.05
Wyoming   73.77
Wisconsin   73.30
Michigan   73.21
Minnesota   73.09
Nebraska   72.79
Indiana   72.39
Montana   72.25
New Hampshire   71.78
Oregon   70.77
West Virginia   70.18
Missouri   70.02
Idaho   69.98
Alaska   69.74
Ohio   69.17
Hawaii   67.98

This is a good thing to keep track of but the confounding factor is that overly sensitive PCR tests can catch "cases" where people were exposed but not infected. For some inexplicable reason public health authorities have been extremely negligent in antibody testing or in determining exactly how many people *definitely* have natural immunity at this point.

Its probably safe to assume the immunity rates are lower than going purely by vaccination/case rates except in places that were heavily hit earlier like NYC.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/cuneytdil/status/1440502400767299589

The rich liberals are destroying our kids and want to learn to live a risk free life.

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/mrsshap/status/1438214618623709186

its a good thing I am not a parent! If I were a parent and my child's school was closed over covid I would be banging on the front door, screaming and cursing, until they opened it.

[jamestroll]

Watch this video..

This video was made in 2011! Yes, 2011! And ten years later, TSA is largely the same.

Hence why I have largely been skeptical of covid regulations.

[Person Man]

The US death toll from Covid-19 just surpassed that of the 1918 flu pandemic

Despite all the scientific and medical advances of the past 103 years, the Covid-19 pandemic has now killed more Americans than the 1918 flu pandemic did.

More than 675,000 people in the United States have died from Covid-19, according to Johns Hopkins University. That surpasses the estimated US death toll from the deadliest pandemic of the 20th century.

"If you would have talked to me in 2019, I would have said I'd be surprised," said epidemiologist Stephen Kissler of the Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health.

"But if you talked to me in probably April or May 2020, I would say I would not be surprised we'd hit this point."

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/20/health/us-covid-deaths-surpass-1918-pandemic/index.html

This is the official death toll from Covid -19 so far, the actual number are much higher as alot of them don't get counted

Population adjustment would suggest that far, far fewer Americans have died of COVID-19 than the Spanish flu. 

Still more people have died whether the national fatality rate is .25% or .75%. There’s also 100 years of medical progress to consider. All taken into account, the situation is about as dangerous.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

https://twitter.com/mrsshap/status/1438214618623709186

its a good thing I am not a parent! If I were a parent and my child's school was closed over covid I would be banging on the front door, screaming and cursing, until they opened it.

You are right, it is a good thing you are not a parent, your reaction would make your kids seem like the adults in the family in comparison to you. Schools commonly closed in the past because of flu outbreaks, much less COVID.

From 2018, for example:

Schools Across the Country Are Closing Because of the Flu

It's not unusual for schools to periodically close during the winter months, but this season, schools across the country are canceling classes for a reason that has nothing to do with bad weather. As the flu epidemic continues to intensify, many schools are being forced to close due to the increasing number of sick kids and staff. While some have closed for just a day, others are closing for a week at a time in order to deal with this startling situation.

Although there's no official count for the number of schools closed because of the flu, there are reports of a variety of closures across 12 states. From Florida and Oklahoma to Illinois and Arkansas, officials are closing schools not only because of the number of students who are sick, but also to hopefully keep it from spreading.

Gull Lake Community Schools in Michigan were closed "due to high illness rates," while one school in Texas declared a "flu day" after state officials told anyone who was sick to stay home. In Arkansas, the Russellville School District closed all of its schools "due to the high number of students experiencing flu-like symptoms."

[jamestroll]

https://twitter.com/mrsshap/status/1438214618623709186

its a good thing I am not a parent! If I were a parent and my child's school was closed over covid I would be banging on the front door, screaming and cursing, until they opened it.

You are right, it is a good thing you are not a parent, your reaction would make your kids seem like the adults in the family in comparison to you. Schools commonly closed in the past because of flu outbreaks, much less COVID.

From 2018, for example:

Schools Across the Country Are Closing Because of the Flu

It's not unusual for schools to periodically close during the winter months, but this season, schools across the country are canceling classes for a reason that has nothing to do with bad weather. As the flu epidemic continues to intensify, many schools are being forced to close due to the increasing number of sick kids and staff. While some have closed for just a day, others are closing for a week at a time in order to deal with this startling situation.

Although there's no official count for the number of schools closed because of the flu, there are reports of a variety of closures across 12 states. From Florida and Oklahoma to Illinois and Arkansas, officials are closing schools not only because of the number of students who are sick, but also to hopefully keep it from spreading.

Gull Lake Community Schools in Michigan were closed "due to high illness rates," while one school in Texas declared a "flu day" after state officials told anyone who was sick to stay home. In Arkansas, the Russellville School District closed all of its schools "due to the high number of students experiencing flu-like symptoms."

You are proving my point. It was never wide spread to close schools over every little risk. But going forward, it will be much for a common.

A significant portion of my party never wants in person schooling again and want everything virtually. That is ing disturbing and frightening.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

You are proving my point. It was never wide spread to close schools over every little risk.

COVID is not the flu. The point is that even over the flu, schools commonly closed in the past. So for schools to be closed over something much more serious such as COVID, you should be even less surprised.

[Pericles]

It's getting very late in the game-vaccinated people who have done everything right need to be able to live normal lives. If one more month would save lives then sure, but this can't go on forever. Very soon, there is no alternative but to let it rip among the unvaccinated-if they die sorry but they should have taken more personal responsibility for their health.

[SnowLabrador]

It's getting very late in the game-vaccinated people who have done everything right need to be able to live normal lives. If one more month would save lives then sure, but this can't go on forever. Very soon, there is no alternative but to let it rip among the unvaccinated-if they die sorry but they should have taken more personal responsibility for their health.

Except then the virus will mutate into a form that is immune to all our vaccines. Plus the unvaccinated are filling up hospitals to the point that vaccinated people are indirectly dying from other things.

[jamestroll]

You are proving my point. It was never wide spread to close schools over every little risk.

COVID is not the flu. The point is that even over the flu, schools commonly closed in the past. So for schools to be closed over something much more serious such as COVID, you should be even less surprised.

Well schools are open where I live and there is literally nothing you can do about it. hahaha

[Pericles]

It's getting very late in the game-vaccinated people who have done everything right need to be able to live normal lives. If one more month would save lives then sure, but this can't go on forever. Very soon, there is no alternative but to let it rip among the unvaccinated-if they die sorry but they should have taken more personal responsibility for their health.

Except then the virus will mutate into a form that is immune to all our vaccines. Plus the unvaccinated are filling up hospitals to the point that vaccinated people are indirectly dying from other things.

If it mutates it mutates, that will happen regardless of how high cases are in the US and can't be used to guide policy for any one country. Besides vaccine effectiveness will wane over time not go to zero in one mutation, it is so great at protecting the double dosed that you might even be able to afford a few mutations. The unvaccinated should definitely get the vaccine but a return to normal is well overdue.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

It's getting very late in the game-vaccinated people who have done everything right need to be able to live normal lives. If one more month would save lives then sure, but this can't go on forever. Very soon, there is no alternative but to let it rip among the unvaccinated-if they die sorry but they should have taken more personal responsibility for their health.

We pretty much have been letting it rip amongst the unvaccinated in the USA. That is what 2000 deaths a day is. Or, alternatively, it is almost equivalent to the number of US combat deaths in the 20 year long Afghan war, in a single day.

If 2 9/11s every 3 days, or almost 20 years worth of Afghan war combat deaths every day and having hospitals run out of ICU beds in many parts of the country isn't letting it rip, then I shudder to think of what letting it rip is.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Well schools are open where I live and there is literally nothing you can do about it. hahaha

What a bizarre comment from a red avatar. You think you are owning the libs because schools are open or something?