NYT/Sienna: AZ - Biden+8

[Horus]

Could Biden actually win this thing?

Horus the doomer has been broken. I am the only holdout...

I'm still predicting a tied EC.

LOLOLOL

You realize the odds of a tied EC are ridiculously slim right? Less than 1% chance. Predicting a tied EC is NOT an improvement over your previous predictions of outright Trump wins; it’s actually significantly dumber!

It’s painfully obvious at this point that you are desperately trying to avoid predicting the obvious (Biden wins) at all costs, no matter how much you have to debase and embarrass yourself to do it. Just sad now. However, you continue to rapidly pivot farther away from your initial predictions of a Trump landslide, so you’re still on pace to meet my own prediction that by Election Day, you’ll be claiming you knew Biden would win all along.

I think this is a reasonable map.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Could Biden actually win this thing?

Horus the doomer has been broken. I am the only holdout...

I'm still predicting a tied EC.

LOLOLOL

You realize the odds of a tied EC are ridiculously slim right? Less than 1% chance. Predicting a tied EC is NOT an improvement over your previous predictions of outright Trump wins; it’s actually significantly dumber!

It’s painfully obvious at this point that you are desperately trying to avoid predicting the obvious (Biden wins) at all costs, no matter how much you have to debase and embarrass yourself to do it. Just sad now. However, you continue to rapidly pivot farther away from your initial predictions of a Trump landslide, so you’re still on pace to meet my own prediction that by Election Day, you’ll be claiming you knew Biden would win all along.

I think this is a reasonable map.

If Biden is winning MI and PA, he's definitely also winning Wisconsin.

[Figueira]

Could Biden actually win this thing?

Horus the doomer has been broken. I am the only holdout...

I'm still predicting a tied EC.

LOLOLOL

You realize the odds of a tied EC are ridiculously slim right? Less than 1% chance. Predicting a tied EC is NOT an improvement over your previous predictions of outright Trump wins; it’s actually significantly dumber!

It’s painfully obvious at this point that you are desperately trying to avoid predicting the obvious (Biden wins) at all costs, no matter how much you have to debase and embarrass yourself to do it. Just sad now. However, you continue to rapidly pivot farther away from your initial predictions of a Trump landslide, so you’re still on pace to meet my own prediction that by Election Day, you’ll be claiming you knew Biden would win all along.

I think this is a reasonable map.

It's not unreasonable, but the odds of that exact map appearing are minuscule. Chances are, at least one state will deviate from that.

[tagimaucia]

Just a reminder that NYT/Siena had North Carolina clinton+8 in late October 2016, Trump won it by 3-4 points.

Well, the last NC Siena Hillary/Trump poll was a tie (with heavy undecideds in Trump leaning demographic groups), so its interesting that you would choose to bring up the... second to last one.
 
The other last-minute state poll I remember them doing was Florida, in which they showed Trump doing actually a couple points better than he ended up.  So, two misses by 2-3 points, but in opposite directions. No pollster is perfect, but the way people here try to grasp at straws to discredit even the better ones is really something.

Also, Siena was basically the best pollster in 2018, along with Emerson (I don't trust post-2018 MTurk-era Emerson, which uses a completely different methodology though).  Siena wasn't perfect in the midterms but they were very good and didn't really have any overall partisan bias.

[libertpaulian]

Crosstabs: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az100120-crosstabs/a77605c32cd8f31e/full.pdf

In a sign of a brewing suburban backlash against the president, Mr. Biden’s lead in Maricopa County, the Phoenix-anchored population hub of the state, matches his statewide advantage. He’s leading by nine points in the county, which accounts for over 60 percent of the state’s population.

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[Rand]

Trump got the ‘Rona. Biden got the ‘Zona.

[ProudModerate2]

[Badger]

Could Biden actually win this thing?

Horus the doomer has been broken. I am the only holdout...

I'm still predicting a tied EC.

LOLOLOL

You realize the odds of a tied EC are ridiculously slim right? Less than 1% chance. Predicting a tied EC is NOT an improvement over your previous predictions of outright Trump wins; it’s actually significantly dumber!

It’s painfully obvious at this point that you are desperately trying to avoid predicting the obvious (Biden wins) at all costs, no matter how much you have to debase and embarrass yourself to do it. Just sad now. However, you continue to rapidly pivot farther away from your initial predictions of a Trump landslide, so you’re still on pace to meet my own prediction that by Election Day, you’ll be claiming you knew Biden would win all along.

I think this is a reasonable map.

Other than the fact Biden has been leading in Wisconsin and Arizona by substantial margins for months....

Sure, totes reasonable

[H. Ross Peron]

Interestingly there isn't much of an education gap for Arizona whites.

Trump leads college-educated AZ whites 46-45% and noncollege educated whites only 51 to 40%. Given Arizona's right wing reputation at least among whites, I'm shocked to see Biden match his national noncollege white numbers in the state.

[Gass3268]

Interestingly there isn't much of an education gap for Arizona whites.

Trump leads college-educated AZ whites 46-45% and noncollege educated whites only 51 to 40%. Given Arizona's right wing reputation at least among whites, I'm shocked to see Biden match his national noncollege white numbers in the state.

A lot of new folks in Arizona are from the Midwest, so this would make sense if there has been a bit of a bounce back for Biden with non-college educated whites.

[Gass3268]

Region Swings:

Maricopa (59%) - Biden +12%
Pima (16%) - Biden +7%
Rest of Arizona (25%) - Biden +14%

[pbrower2a]

The typical Republican strategy is to offset tanking in the suburbs with ramping up margins with rural whites.

The problem with Arizona is that there are hardly any people living in the rural areas to begin with. Other than the Native American tribes, nobody there has very deep roots.

A good analogue for that is Nevada.

[wbrocks67]

Hispanic/Latino - Biden +38 (65-27)

Maricopa - Biden +12

Aged 18-29 - Biden +42 (64-22)

*Pretends to be shocked*

There are very few states on which this forum has had worse takes than AZ. To name only the most obvious ones:

1. Biden's "Latino problem" will cost him AZ.
2. Sanders wouldn’t have been competitive in AZ.
3. AZ is far less likely to flip than WI/MI/PA.
4. Sinema won because she was a uniquely strong/moderate candidate.
5. Democrats have an impenetrable ceiling of 44%/45% in this state.
6. Trump will get a massive polling boost here after RBG's death because voters want a conservative SCOTUS.

Likely D.

I agree with most of this but I would disagree n Sinema - I think she actually was a really good candidate for AZ specifically. And that has borne out with her very positive favorability ratings

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Please don't respond to anymore WI going R maps, WI is a D state and only voted twice since 1984 Republican and Johnson is retiring in 2022, which along with PA will be D pickups. Walker was the reason why Rs won, he is no longer Gov, Every is

[woodley park]

Arizona is now Lean D on the 270 to Win consensus map!

[libertpaulian]

The AZ GOP is going to sink harder than the VA GOP at this rate.

At least the VA GOP was able to produce McDonnell for a final hurrah.  In AZ, it looks like Ducey may be the AZ GOP's last hurrah.