NYT/Sienna: AZ - Biden+8
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  NYT/Sienna: AZ - Biden+8		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: NYT/Sienna: AZ - Biden+8  (Read 3433 times)
KaiserDave
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« Reply #25 on: October 05, 2020, 12:16:24 PM »
Biden is clearly doomed
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redjohn
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« Reply #26 on: October 05, 2020, 12:17:16 PM »
Looking at Phoenix+Maricopa crosstabs, this poll puts Maricopa county as a whole at around 50-39 Biden. Obviously, with numbers anywhere near that, Biden easily wins statewide.
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Badger
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« Reply #27 on: October 05, 2020, 12:17:31 PM »
Quote from: redjohn on October 05, 2020, 11:59:26 AM
Biden's the clear favorite here. Is AZ going to vote with the nation, despite voting 5.5% to the right of the NPV in 2016? Looks very possible.

Quite possible. It's going to vote anywhere from a point or two left to a point or two right of pvi.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #28 on: October 05, 2020, 12:17:48 PM »
Update: I've updated trends from one poll to the next as I'd missed a Likely Voters AZ poll carried out by the NYT/Siena duo in September of this year. Trump's actually mildly improved.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #29 on: October 05, 2020, 12:17:57 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 05, 2020, 12:15:03 PM
Quote from: kireev on October 05, 2020, 12:02:42 PM
Trump +6 in 2016 sample. Last time it was Hillary +1 sample and Biden lead by 9.

Oof. That means it's even worse for Trump than it appears.

If Biden wins Arizona by 10+ points, I'll do cartwheels
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republican1993
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« Reply #30 on: October 05, 2020, 12:19:22 PM »
nytimes making PA more R than arizona... i'll believe it when i see it!

Can't wait for biden to win florida by 5 points too Cheesy
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Buzz
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« Reply #31 on: October 05, 2020, 12:21:16 PM »
Biden will win 50-47.5. 
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Rep Jessica
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« Reply #32 on: October 05, 2020, 12:23:00 PM »
Just a reminder that NYT/Siena had North Carolina clinton+8 in late October 2016, Trump won it by 3-4 points.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #33 on: October 05, 2020, 12:23:25 PM »

Undecideds don't look great for Trump.
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xavier110
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« Reply #34 on: October 05, 2020, 12:25:43 PM »
Quote from: redjohn on October 05, 2020, 12:17:16 PM
Looking at Phoenix+Maricopa crosstabs, this poll puts Maricopa county as a whole at around 50-39 Biden. Obviously, with numbers anywhere near that, Biden easily wins statewide.

Yup. And almost every Maricopa County race would go Dem. Board of Supervisors, Assessor, Attorney, Recorder, School Superintendent, Sheriff, Treasurer... Nutso

At that point, who is the GOP bench for statewide office? Ms Ward and Ms McSally? LOL
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #35 on: October 05, 2020, 12:25:58 PM »
Quote from: Rep Jessica on October 05, 2020, 12:23:00 PM
Just a reminder that NYT/Siena had North Carolina clinton+8 in late October 2016, Trump won it by 3-4 points.

how is that relevant to Arizona
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #36 on: October 05, 2020, 12:26:50 PM »
If this poll doesn't put a smile on your face, then you are an evil person.
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Horus
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« Reply #37 on: October 05, 2020, 12:30:33 PM »
Could Biden actually win this thing?
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It’s so Joever
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #38 on: October 05, 2020, 12:32:08 PM »
Quote from: Horus on October 05, 2020, 12:30:33 PM
Could Biden actually win this thing?
Horus the doomer has been broken. I am the only holdout...
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Horus
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« Reply #39 on: October 05, 2020, 12:33:30 PM »
Quote from: Dr. Lurker on October 05, 2020, 12:32:08 PM
Quote from: Horus on October 05, 2020, 12:30:33 PM
Could Biden actually win this thing?
Horus the doomer has been broken. I am the only holdout...

I'm still predicting a tied EC.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #40 on: October 05, 2020, 12:34:36 PM »
Quote from: Dr. Lurker on October 05, 2020, 12:32:08 PM
Quote from: Horus on October 05, 2020, 12:30:33 PM
Could Biden actually win this thing?
Horus the doomer has been broken. I am the only holdout...

"Dread it. Run from it. Destiny arrives all the same."
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Stuart98
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« Reply #41 on: October 05, 2020, 12:35:07 PM »
Quote from: Horus on October 05, 2020, 12:33:30 PM
Quote from: Dr. Lurker on October 05, 2020, 12:32:08 PM
Quote from: Horus on October 05, 2020, 12:30:33 PM
Could Biden actually win this thing?
Horus the doomer has been broken. I am the only holdout...

I'm still predicting a tied EC.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #42 on: October 05, 2020, 12:36:10 PM »
Quote from: Rep Jessica on October 05, 2020, 12:23:00 PM
Just a reminder that NYT/Siena had North Carolina clinton+8 in late October 2016, Trump won it by 3-4 points.

Yes, and *absolutely nothing* happened at the very end of October 2016 that caused a late, large swing among a much larger pool of undecided voters toward Trump.
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #43 on: October 05, 2020, 12:39:43 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2020, 01:17:58 PM by Make PA Blue Again! »
Biden +10 in Maricopa co.

Even more great news for Biden: this poll used a 2016 Trump +6 sample.
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #44 on: October 05, 2020, 12:40:11 PM »
Brutal poll for the Republicans. I guess the best I can say for them is that, we are still two days away from the Access Hollywood tape anniversary so things can change. However, all the change has been to the detriment of Trump lately.
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We Live in Black and White
SvenTC
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« Reply #45 on: October 05, 2020, 12:41:31 PM »
Wow, and I thought my +5 prediction was hackish!

Now, if you'll excuse me: HOLY CANNOLI
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Zache
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« Reply #46 on: October 05, 2020, 12:42:37 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on October 05, 2020, 12:25:58 PM
Quote from: Rep Jessica on October 05, 2020, 12:23:00 PM
Just a reminder that NYT/Siena had North Carolina clinton+8 in late October 2016, Trump won it by 3-4 points.

how is that relevant to Arizona
I'm sure she researched Arizona polls first for a gotcha and saw that they were right on the money. Had to go for the next best thing.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #47 on: October 05, 2020, 12:48:23 PM »


Custom made
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #48 on: October 05, 2020, 12:51:01 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 05, 2020, 12:05:25 PM



This should not be underemphasized: the weighting in NYT's AZ polls is almost certainly quite lacking due to voter file issues.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #49 on: October 05, 2020, 12:53:55 PM »
New Poll: Arizona President by Siena Research Institute on 2020-10-03

Summary: D: 49%, R: 41%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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