NYT/Sienna: AZ - Biden+8
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  NYT/Sienna: AZ - Biden+8		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: NYT/Sienna: AZ - Biden+8  (Read 3382 times)
Ferguson97
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« on: October 05, 2020, 11:53:46 AM »
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2020, 11:54:14 AM »
Wow!
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xavier110
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2020, 11:54:37 AM »
Acorn macadamia cashew pistachio NUTTTTT
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2020, 11:55:37 AM »
COVID parade bump.
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WD
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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2020, 11:56:24 AM »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on August 29, 2020, 11:21:06 AM
OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!
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Panda Express
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2020, 11:58:49 AM »
I like how Arizona just skipped being a swing state and went from Lean R to Lean D
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Skye
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2020, 11:59:12 AM »
Crosstabs: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az100120-crosstabs/a77605c32cd8f31e/full.pdf

Quote
In a sign of a brewing suburban backlash against the president, Mr. Biden’s lead in Maricopa County, the Phoenix-anchored population hub of the state, matches his statewide advantage. He’s leading by nine points in the county, which accounts for over 60 percent of the state’s population.
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redjohn
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2020, 11:59:26 AM »
Biden's the clear favorite here. Is AZ going to vote with the nation, despite voting 5.5% to the right of the NPV in 2016? Looks very possible.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2020, 12:00:05 PM »
Holy almond nut macademia moly Surprise
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2020, 12:00:38 PM »
Eh, it's not Lean D relative to the country based on all available evidence though.  If Biden does wins AZ by 8, he's still gonna be winning nationally by even more.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2020, 12:01:02 PM »
Quote from: Panda Express on October 05, 2020, 11:58:49 AM
I like how Arizona just skipped being a swing state and went from Lean R to Lean D

It Virginia-ed.
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Hydera
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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2020, 12:01:07 PM »
Atlas: Just you wait!! that sympathy bump will pop up one day!! trumps gonna ride that sympathy bump to the sunset victory!!
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kireev
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« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2020, 12:02:42 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2020, 12:07:40 PM by kireev »
Trump +6 in 2016 sample. Last time it was Hillary +1 sample and Biden lead by 9.
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VAR
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« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2020, 12:03:12 PM »
Trump approval: 45/52 (-7)

Favorabilities:
Trump: 45/52 (-7)
Biden: 52/45 (+7)
Harris: 43/44 (-1)
Pence: 44/45 (-1)
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ajc0918
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2020, 12:03:15 PM »
Thank You Kelli Ward!
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2020, 12:03:39 PM »
The typical Republican strategy is to offset tanking in the suburbs with ramping up margins with rural whites.

The problem with Arizona is that there are hardly any people living in the rural areas to begin with. Other than the Native American tribes, nobody there has very deep roots.
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redjohn
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2020, 12:03:49 PM »
Biden's strongly favored here in a way HRC never was. Excellent news for the Biden campaign. Polling indicates he's strongly favored in *at least* AZ+WI+MI+PA, which is all he needs to win. Anything else is icing on the cake.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2020, 12:04:01 PM »
Wow. Arizona's doing a Virginia.
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Rep Jessica
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« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2020, 12:04:51 PM »
I'll believe it when I see it.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #19 on: October 05, 2020, 12:05:25 PM »

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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #20 on: October 05, 2020, 12:06:10 PM »
Quote from: redjohn on October 05, 2020, 12:03:49 PM
Biden's strongly favored here in a way HRC never was. Excellent news for the Biden campaign. Polling indicates he's strongly favored in *at least* AZ+WI+MI+PA, which is all he needs to win. Anything else is icing on the cake.

If we factor in a NE-02 win for Biden, he wouldn't need PA (or FL, for that matter). 
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #21 on: October 05, 2020, 12:12:30 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2020, 12:17:14 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
October 1-3
655 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%
Changes with September 10-15, 2020 poll

Biden 49% (n/c)
Trump 41% (+1)
Jorgensen 3% (-1)
Someone else 1% (n/c)
Not voting for the president 0% (n/c)
Don't know/refused 6% (n/c)
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Bootes Void
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« Reply #22 on: October 05, 2020, 12:14:54 PM »
Will 2020 be a rejection of reaganism? It's looking like it
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: October 05, 2020, 12:15:03 PM »
Quote from: kireev on October 05, 2020, 12:02:42 PM
Trump +6 in 2016 sample. Last time it was Hillary +1 sample and Biden lead by 9.

Oof. That means it's even worse for Trump than it appears.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #24 on: October 05, 2020, 12:15:17 PM »
This is one of the best polls I have seen all year. Biden is absolutely crushing it.
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